Photo: Jfvoll · CC BY-SA 4.0Ayr is on Canada’s flood inventory: 1 listed, led by Grand River Conservation Authority
The burned-area map is nearly blank around Ayr, 0% within 25 km since 1986, 0.000% a year. For earthquakes Ayr is middling, $0.022 a year per $1,000 against $0.030 for the typical town. Radon is lower than usual: 4% of tested homes in the survey area topped the guideline, against 6.6% for the typical town. Hazard risk gives Ayr a grade of A−, from earthquakes and radon alone.
What stands out about Ayr’s hazards
Four national sources, each read for Ayr: earthquakes, radon, past fires and flood studies.
What Ayr faces
Each hazard against its own yardstick; meters run from low to high on that yardstick.
Wildfire
Earthquakes
Radon
Flood study
Ayr grades A− for hazard risk
Earthquake risk and radon make Ayr’s grade; wildfire can only lower it, never raise it, and flood studies are listed but not scored.
Its place: #237 of 866 in Ontario and #594 of 2,589 Canadian towns.
How sure: Earthquake losses are a model’s expectation over many years, not a forecast for any one. Small fires and grass fires are largely missing from the national burned-area record.
Few fires near Ayr: 0% within 5 km, 0% within 25 km
Fires mapped since 1986 around where Ayr’s residents live, and the fuel next to their homes.
The land within 25 km of Ayr burns at 0.000% a year on average, the low band; the typical Canadian town: 0.000%.
About as much forest grows next to Ayr’s homes (5% within 5 km) as across 25 km (4.3%).
Shares of land within 5 and 25 km of populated blocks: burned at least once in 1986–2025 (CWFIS burned-area composite), forest fuel and grass (fire behaviour fuel types, 2026, 250 m grid).
Burn rate a year, towns in Ontario · highest of 871
To three decimals the burn rate around Ayr is zero, as for 638 of the 871 towns in Ontario, while Sioux Lookout reaches 0.16%.
Each bar: the yearly average share of land within 25 km of a town’s homes that burned, 1986–2025 (CWFIS); the seven highest towns of 2,500 people or more.
Measured against 2,610 towns, Ayr is in the largest group, low (92%), and at its floor, while 7.5% rank higher.
Bands of the yearly burn rate: low under 0.05%, moderate under 0.25%, high under 1%, very high 1% or more; towns of 2,500 people or more.
Fire danger and active fires (CWFIS)
Canadian Wildland Fire Information System: National Burned Area Composite 1986–2025 and fire behaviour fuel types (2026), Natural Resources Canada. Measured within 25 km and 5 km of each populated dissemination area; past fire, not a forecast.
Grand River Conservation Authority has mapped flooding for Ayr (1 study)
Flood studies whose area touches Ayr, from NRCan’s inventory, each linked to its owner.
One study on the inventory touches Ayr, Grand River Conservation Authority’s from 2018, and its area can be large, so it says a map exists, not that the town floods.
| Study | By | Year | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Grand River Regulatory Floodplain | Grand River Conservation Authority | 2018 | final |
Towns with a flood study on file
69% of towns in Ontario have a flood study, more than Canada’s 58%; Ayr has one too.
NRCan Canada Flood Map Inventory: a study footprint touching the town’s boundary; towns of 2,500 people or more.
Flood is shown here, never graded: a study says where a map exists, not how many of Ayr’s homes stand in a flood zone.
The inventory’s own caution (NRCan): “The Canada Flood Map (CFM) does not include every flood hazard map in Canada and may be incomplete or contain inaccuracies. It should not be relied upon as the official source of flood mapping information. Furthermore, if a map appears to be missing, this does not necessarily mean that the area has never been mapped. For the official version of a map, updated information, or confirmation of applicable regulations, please contact the local authority responsible for flood mapping.”
Natural Resources Canada, Canada Flood Map Inventory; links go to each study’s owner.
Ordinary seismic risk in Ayr: $0.022 per $1,000 of buildings a year
NRCan’s seismic risk model: the damage shaking is expected to do to buildings each year, on average over many years.
At $0.022 per $1,000, Ayr’s earthquake risk is about the typical Canadian town’s ($0.030; 0.7 times).
Shaking damage a year per $1,000 of building value
At $0.022, Ayr is below the typical town in Ontario ($0.043); Alexandria is highest at $0.21.
NRCan seismic risk model (2022): mean yearly building loss per $1,000 of value; medians of towns of 2,500 people or more.
Ayr sits mid-range among Canada’s 2,611 towns: 61% expect more shaking damage.
Each column: the share of Canada’s towns of 2,500 people or more in that range of yearly loss per $1,000 (NRCan, 2022).
The loss is to Ayr’s buildings alone, from ground shaking; infrastructure and secondary hazards are left out.
Natural Resources Canada, Canada’s Seismic Risk Model (2022), by census subdivision (2016 boundaries; a few 2021 subdivisions take their residents’ mean).
Radon runs low around Ayr: 4% of tested homes over the guideline
Health Canada’s survey of long-term home tests: the share above the 200 Bq/m³ guideline.
Ayr’s survey area reads 4% over the guideline, under the typical Canadian town’s 6.6%.
Tested homes over 200 Bq/m³
Over 600 Bq/m³
Around Ayr, 4% of tests topped the guideline, about the same as the typical town in Ontario (4%).
Health Canada radon survey (2009–2011), by 2007 health region; medians of towns of 2,500 people or more.
63% of Canada’s 2,611 towns have a higher share of homes over 200 Bq/m³ than Ayr’s band, which holds 37%.
Each bar: the share of Canada’s towns of 2,500 people or more whose survey area had that share of tests over 200 Bq/m³.
A survey sample isn’t a map: any home in Ayr can be high, and a three-month test is the only way to know.
Health Canada, Cross-Canada Survey of Radon Concentrations in Homes (2009–2011). · Radon tests: the Waterloo Health Unit
Weather and fire alerts for Ayr
Environment and Climate Change Canada issues the weather alerts for Ayr; Alert Ready carries the urgent ones to phones, radio and TV.
| Alert | What it means |
|---|---|
| Warning | Severe weather is happening or about to: act now. |
| Watch | Conditions favour severe weather: be ready. |
| Advisory | Weather that is less severe but could disrupt the day. |
| Special weather statement | Unusual weather worth knowing about. |
| Special air quality statement | Poor air, often wildfire smoke. |
Smoke and fire warnings for Ayr come through Environment Canada and Alert Ready; the fire map is CWFIS’s.
Weather alerts (ECCC) · Alert Ready · Fire danger and active fires (CWFIS)
Hazards in the places around Ayr
The same four hazards for the places next door.
| Town | Wildfire | Quake $/1,000 | Radon | Flood study |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ayr | Low | $0.022 | 4% | Yes |
| Doon South 15,044 · 8.4 km | Low | $0.022 | 4% | Yes |
| Huron South 5,555 · 9.9 km | Low | $0.022 | 4% | Yes |
| Pioneer Park 8,781 · 11 km | Low | $0.022 | 4% | Yes |
| Rosenberg 9,831 · 11 km | Low | $0.022 | 4% | Yes |
| Pioneer Tower West 4,122 · 11 km | Low | $0.022 | 4% | Yes |
| Cambridge 165,354 · 13 km | Low | $0.024 | 4% | Yes |
Doon South (low) has the heaviest fire record of Ayr’s neighbours, and Ayr (low) matches or beats it.
Radon is the survey area’s figure, so neighbours in one area share it.
Get ready for what Ayr faces
Practical steps for Ayr’s hazards, most pressing first.
- Test for three months in winter.
- Over 200 Bq/m³: fix it.
- Kits are cheap; pros test too.
- Never drive through floodwater.
- Move papers and medicines upstairs.
- Ask whether your street is mapped.
- Clear needles and wood nearby.
- Keep a grab-and-go bag ready.
- In smoke, stay in; filter air.
- Has it had a radon test?
- Check the address on the flood map.
- Are flood and wildfire insured?
What this data can and can’t tell you
- Flood studies aren’t flood zones. NRCan’s inventory says where flood mapping exists, not where water goes; the map’s owner is the authority for Ayr.
- Wildfire counts one way. The wildfire figure is the share of land within 25 km of Ayr’s homes burned each year from 1986 to 2025, past fire rather than a forecast, and it can only lower Risk.
- Earthquakes are modelled. Shaking damage is modelled from the ground, the buildings and the odds of each quake, and published for whole subdivisions such as Ayr’s.
- Radon is a survey. About 14,000 homes were tested across Canada in 2009–2011, and the share over the guideline for Ayr is its health region’s, the survey’s design unit.
Questions about flooding and hazards in Ayr
Is radon a problem in Ayr?
4% of the 101 homes Health Canada tested around Ayr topped the guideline; your own house needs its own test.
How big is the earthquake risk in Ayr?
Expected earthquake damage in Ayr comes to $0.022 a year for each $1,000 that buildings are worth.
How is Ayr’s Hazard risk Grade worked out?
Ayr’s Hazard risk grade is A−, built on earthquakes and radon with a one-sided wildfire input.
Is Ayr at risk of wildfire?
Very little by the national record: Ayr’s band is low, with 0% of the land within 25 km burned since 1986, so wildfire doesn’t change its grade.
Does Ayr flood?
There is flood mapping for Ayr on the national inventory, each study linked to its owner’s map, none of them graded.
Seismic risk: Natural Resources Canada. Radon: Health Canada. Wildfire: Canadian Wildland Fire Information System. Flood studies: Natural Resources Canada, Canada Flood Map Inventory. Contains information licensed under the Open Government Licence – Canada.
Sources: NRCan, Canada’s Seismic Risk Model 2022 · Health Canada, Cross-Canada Survey of Radon Concentrations in Homes · CWFIS, National Burned Area Composite and FBP fuel types · NRCan, Canada Flood Map Inventory. Under the Statistics Canada Open Licence.
Adapted from Statistics Canada (Census of Population 2021, population estimates 2025, 2021 census boundaries) under the Statistics Canada Open Licence; this does not constitute an endorsement by Statistics Canada. Neighbourhood names in some cities © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL).