Photo: William M. Monroe · Public domainHazard risk in Pictou is lower than in 95% of Canadian towns
Fire has left almost no mark near Pictou: 0% of the land within 25 km since 1986, 0.001% a year. Earthquakes matter little: NRCan’s model puts building losses at $0.014 a year per $1,000 of value, against $0.030 for the typical town. In Health Canada’s survey, just 2% of homes tested in the area exceeded 200 Bq/m³ (6.6% typical). Hazard risk gives Pictou a grade of A+; its wildfire band pulls it down.
What stands out about Pictou’s hazards
For Pictou, from NRCan’s seismic model, Health Canada’s radon survey, the national burned-area record and the flood map inventory.
What Pictou faces
Each hazard against its own yardstick; meters run from low to high on that yardstick.
Wildfire
Earthquakes
Radon
Flood study
Hazard risk in Pictou: A+
For Pictou, Risk will be the average of earthquakes and radon, with wildfire added only if it makes the average worse.
Its place: #3 of 88 in Nova Scotia and #247 of 2,589 Canadian towns.
How sure: The seismic figure is a long-run average from NRCan’s model, not a prediction. The burned-area record misses fires under about 10 ha and most grass and farm fires.
Little of the land around Pictou has burned: 0% within 5 km, 0% within 25 km since 1986
Fires mapped since 1986 around where Pictou’s residents live, and the fuel next to their homes.
The yearly burn rate around Pictou is 0.001%, low beside 0.000% for the typical Canadian town.
The closest burn since 1986 lies 6.4 km from Pictou’s homes, none within 5 km.
About as much forest grows next to Pictou’s homes (72% within 5 km) as across 25 km (77%).
Shares of land within 5 and 25 km of populated blocks: burned at least once in 1986–2025 (CWFIS burned-area composite), forest fuel and grass (fire behaviour fuel types, 2026, 250 m grid).
Burn rate a year, towns in Nova Scotia · highest of 90
In the lower half in Nova Scotia: Pictou at 0.001% a year, 69th of 90, far from Barrington’s 0.46%.
Each bar: the yearly average share of land within 25 km of a town’s homes that burned, 1986–2025 (CWFIS); the seven highest towns of 2,500 people or more.
Beside 2,610 Canadian towns, Pictou reads low, with 92% of them; only 7.5% rank higher.
Bands of the yearly burn rate: low under 0.05%, moderate under 0.25%, high under 1%, very high 1% or more; towns of 2,500 people or more.
Fire danger and active fires (CWFIS)
Canadian Wildland Fire Information System: National Burned Area Composite 1986–2025 and fire behaviour fuel types (2026), Natural Resources Canada. Measured within 25 km and 5 km of each populated dissemination area; past fire, not a forecast.
Flooding around Pictou is mapped in 2 studies, the newest by Province of Nova Scotia
Flood studies whose area touches Pictou, from NRCan’s inventory, each linked to its owner.
For Pictou the inventory points to 2 studies, most recently Province of Nova Scotia’s in 2025.
| Study | By | Year | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Northumberland Shore Region | Province of Nova Scotia | 2025 | final · not public |
| Northumberland Region | Nova Scotia Department of Municipal Affairs | 2025 | under review · not public |
Towns with a flood study on file
Flood maps are common in Nova Scotia: 88% of towns have one, against 58% nationally, and Pictou is among them.
NRCan Canada Flood Map Inventory: a study footprint touching the town’s boundary; towns of 2,500 people or more.
The grade leaves flood out, since a study area says nothing about how many of Pictou’s homes are at risk.
The inventory’s own caution (NRCan): “The Canada Flood Map (CFM) does not include every flood hazard map in Canada and may be incomplete or contain inaccuracies. It should not be relied upon as the official source of flood mapping information. Furthermore, if a map appears to be missing, this does not necessarily mean that the area has never been mapped. For the official version of a map, updated information, or confirmation of applicable regulations, please contact the local authority responsible for flood mapping.”
Natural Resources Canada, Canada Flood Map Inventory; links go to each study’s owner.
Low seismic risk in Pictou: $0.014 per $1,000 of buildings a year
NRCan’s seismic risk model: the damage shaking is expected to do to buildings each year, on average over many years.
Shaking costs the typical town $0.030 a year; in Pictou it is only $0.014, 0.5 times as much.
Shaking damage a year per $1,000 of building value
At $0.014, Pictou is below the typical town in Nova Scotia ($0.018); Clare is highest at $0.034.
NRCan seismic risk model (2022): mean yearly building loss per $1,000 of value; medians of towns of 2,500 people or more.
Most of Canada’s 2,611 towns (73%) face more earthquake damage than Pictou.
Each column: the share of Canada’s towns of 2,500 people or more in that range of yearly loss per $1,000 (NRCan, 2022).
For Pictou the model prices shaking damage to buildings, nothing more.
Natural Resources Canada, Canada’s Seismic Risk Model (2022), by census subdivision (2016 boundaries; a few 2021 subdivisions take their residents’ mean).
2% of homes tested around Pictou are over the radon guideline
Health Canada’s survey of long-term home tests: the share above the 200 Bq/m³ guideline.
Fewer homes than usual test high around Pictou: 2% against 6.6% for the typical Canadian town.
Tested homes over 200 Bq/m³
Over 600 Bq/m³
Against the typical town in Nova Scotia (13%), the area around Pictou has fewer high tests: 2%.
Health Canada radon survey (2009–2011), by 2007 health region; medians of towns of 2,500 people or more.
63% of Canada’s 2,611 towns have a higher share of homes over 200 Bq/m³ than Pictou’s band, which holds 37%.
Each bar: the share of Canada’s towns of 2,500 people or more whose survey area had that share of tests over 200 Bq/m³.
Neighbouring homes in Pictou can differ a lot; only a long-term test tells you about yours.
Health Canada, Cross-Canada Survey of Radon Concentrations in Homes (2009–2011). · Area behind the radon tests figures: the Zone 4 health region
Where to get warnings in Pictou
Environment and Climate Change Canada issues the weather alerts for Pictou; Alert Ready carries the urgent ones to phones, radio and TV.
| Alert | What it means |
|---|---|
| Warning | Severe weather is happening or about to: act now. |
| Watch | Conditions favour severe weather: be ready. |
| Advisory | Weather that is less severe but could disrupt the day. |
| Special weather statement | Unusual weather worth knowing about. |
| Special air quality statement | Poor air, often wildfire smoke. |
In fire season, check CWFIS for danger and active fires around Pictou, and listen to local authorities for orders.
Weather alerts (ECCC) · Alert Ready · Fire danger and active fires (CWFIS)
Hazards in the places around Pictou
The same four hazards for the places next door.
| Town | Wildfire | Quake $/1,000 | Radon | Flood study |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pictou | Low | $0.014 | 2% | Yes |
| Trenton 2,499 · 9.3 km | Low | $0.015 | 2% | Yes |
| New Glasgow 10,378 · 11 km | Low | $0.015 | 2% | Yes |
| Pictou County, Subdivision A 6,575 · 13 km | Low | $0.017 | 2% | Yes |
| Westville 3,731 · 14 km | Low | $0.021 | 2% | Yes |
| Stellarton 4,251 · 14 km | Low | $0.014 | 2% | Yes |
| Pictou County, Subdivision C 8,847 · 16 km | Low | $0.014 | 2% | Yes |
The neighbour with the most fire is Trenton (low), still no more than Pictou (low).
Radon is the survey area’s figure, so neighbours in one area share it.
Get ready for what Pictou faces
Practical steps for Pictou’s hazards, most pressing first.
- Test for three months in winter.
- Over 200 Bq/m³: fix it.
- Kits are cheap; pros test too.
- Never drive through floodwater.
- Move papers and medicines upstairs.
- Ask whether your street is mapped.
- Clear needles and wood nearby.
- Keep a grab-and-go bag ready.
- In smoke, stay in; filter air.
- Has it had a radon test?
- Check the address on the flood map.
- Are flood and wildfire insured?
What this data can and can’t tell you
- Radon is a survey. Radon figures pool the survey’s home tests by area: postal areas once their boundaries arrive, the 2007 health region around Pictou until then.
- Earthquakes are modelled. The earthquake figure is an expected loss, not a forecast, worked out by NRCan for each census subdivision, Pictou’s included.
- Flood studies aren’t flood zones. Flood studies cover areas of every size, which is why the page lists them for Pictou without grading them.
- Wildfire counts one way. Burned land within 25 km of where people live, averaged over 1986–2025 and checked for fuel near homes, is the measure; it looks back, not ahead, and only ever counts against Pictou.
Questions about flooding and hazards in Pictou
How is Pictou’s Hazard risk Grade worked out?
Hazard risk gives Pictou A+, weighing earthquakes and radon and counting wildfire only against it.
Is Pictou at risk of wildfire?
Some, but Pictou’s low band (0% of nearby land burned since 1986, latest 2023) is short of the level that counts.
Is radon a problem in Pictou?
The area’s survey found 2% of 99 tested homes above Health Canada’s guideline, so a three-month test is worth doing in Pictou.
How big is the earthquake risk in Pictou?
About $0.014 a year per $1,000 of building value, NRCan’s long-run expectation for Pictou.
Does Pictou flood?
A flood study covers Pictou on Canada’s Flood Map Inventory; open the owner’s map to check a street, since flood isn’t graded.
Seismic risk: Natural Resources Canada. Radon: Health Canada. Wildfire: Canadian Wildland Fire Information System. Flood studies: Natural Resources Canada, Canada Flood Map Inventory. Contains information licensed under the Open Government Licence – Canada.
Sources: NRCan, Canada’s Seismic Risk Model 2022 · Health Canada, Cross-Canada Survey of Radon Concentrations in Homes · CWFIS, National Burned Area Composite and FBP fuel types · NRCan, Canada Flood Map Inventory. Under the Statistics Canada Open Licence.
Adapted from Statistics Canada (Census of Population 2021, population estimates 2025, 2021 census boundaries) under the Statistics Canada Open Licence; this does not constitute an endorsement by Statistics Canada. Neighbourhood names in some cities © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL).