Photo: Earth Science and Remote Sensing Unit , Lyndon B. Johnson Space Center · Public domainRadon is Shippagan’s main hazard: 40% of tested homes in its area top Health Canada’s guideline
Fire seldom reaches Shippagan: since 1986, 0.1% of the land within 25 km has burned (0.003% a year). Seismic risk in Shippagan sits near the middle: $0.036 of expected damage per $1,000 of buildings a year, the typical town $0.030. Hazard risk gives Shippagan a grade of D, from earthquakes and radon alone.
What stands out about Shippagan’s hazards
Four national sources, each read for Shippagan: earthquakes, radon, past fires and flood studies.
What Shippagan faces
Each hazard against its own yardstick; meters run from low to high on that yardstick.
Wildfire
Earthquakes
Radon
Flood study
Hazard risk in Shippagan: D
Risk averages earthquakes and radon; wildfire joins only where it pulls the average down, so a town like Shippagan with little fire nearby would get no credit for it.
Its place: #47 of 60 in New Brunswick and #2,438 of 2,589 Canadian towns.
How sure: The seismic figure is a long-run average from NRCan’s model, not a prediction. Small fires and grass fires are largely missing from the national burned-area record.
Little of the land around Shippagan has burned: 0.1% within 5 km, 0.1% within 25 km since 1986
Past fire around Shippagan’s homes, from the national burned-area record, with the fuel within 5 km.
The land within 25 km of Shippagan burns at 0.003% a year on average, the low band; the typical Canadian town: 0.000%.
Forest fuel covers 53% of the land close to Shippagan and 70% across 25 km.
Shares of land within 5 and 25 km of populated blocks: burned at least once in 1986–2025 (CWFIS burned-area composite), forest fuel and grass (fire behaviour fuel types, 2026, 250 m grid).
Burn rate a year, towns in New Brunswick · highest of 60
Shippagan burns at 0.003% a year, 27th of 60 towns in New Brunswick; the leader, Tracadie, reaches 0.28%.
Each bar: the yearly average share of land within 25 km of a town’s homes that burned, 1986–2025 (CWFIS); the seven highest towns of 2,500 people or more.
Low, like 92% of the country’s 2,610 towns: the land around Shippagan burns, but slower than in the 7.5% above it.
Bands of the yearly burn rate: low under 0.05%, moderate under 0.25%, high under 1%, very high 1% or more; towns of 2,500 people or more.
Fire danger and active fires (CWFIS)
Canadian Wildland Fire Information System: National Burned Area Composite 1986–2025 and fire behaviour fuel types (2026), Natural Resources Canada. Measured within 25 km and 5 km of each populated dissemination area; past fire, not a forecast.
Shippagan is on the flood map inventory: 1 study, by Service New Brunswick - GeoNB
What Canada’s Flood Map Inventory lists for Shippagan: who studied flooding and where to see their maps.
One study on the inventory touches Shippagan, Service New Brunswick - GeoNB’s from 2020, and its area can be large, so it says a map exists, not that the town floods.
| Study | By | Year | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Inland Flood Mapping in New Brunswick and Updated Sea-Level Rise and Flooding Estimates for New Brunswick Coastal Sections 2020 | Service New Brunswick - GeoNB | 2020 | final |
Towns with a flood study on file
93% of towns in New Brunswick have a flood study, more than Canada’s 58%; Shippagan has one too.
NRCan Canada Flood Map Inventory: a study footprint touching the town’s boundary; towns of 2,500 people or more.
Flood is shown here, never graded: a study says where a map exists, not how many of Shippagan’s homes stand in a flood zone.
The inventory’s own caution (NRCan): “The Canada Flood Map (CFM) does not include every flood hazard map in Canada and may be incomplete or contain inaccuracies. It should not be relied upon as the official source of flood mapping information. Furthermore, if a map appears to be missing, this does not necessarily mean that the area has never been mapped. For the official version of a map, updated information, or confirmation of applicable regulations, please contact the local authority responsible for flood mapping.”
Natural Resources Canada, Canada Flood Map Inventory; links go to each study’s owner.
Expected shaking damage in Shippagan: $0.036 a year per $1,000
Expected yearly building losses from earthquakes, from Natural Resources Canada’s model.
Shippagan’s $0.036 is close to the typical town’s $0.030 (1.2 times as much).
Shaking damage a year per $1,000 of building value
The median in New Brunswick is $0.036; Shippagan, at $0.036, is right beside it, and St. Stephen tops the list at $0.16.
NRCan seismic risk model (2022): mean yearly building loss per $1,000 of value; medians of towns of 2,500 people or more.
Middle of the pack: 46% of Canada’s 2,611 towns have more earthquake risk than Shippagan.
Each column: the share of Canada’s towns of 2,500 people or more in that range of yearly loss per $1,000 (NRCan, 2022).
The model counts damage to Shippagan’s buildings and their occupants from shaking only: not liquefaction, landslides, tsunami or fires after a quake.
Natural Resources Canada, Canada’s Seismic Risk Model (2022), by census subdivision (2016 boundaries; a few 2021 subdivisions take their residents’ mean).
Radon runs high around Shippagan: 40% of tested homes over the guideline
Long-term radon tests in homes across the survey area, against Health Canada’s guideline.
A higher share than most: 40% of tested homes around Shippagan, the typical Canadian town 6.6%.
Tested homes over 200 Bq/m³
Over 600 Bq/m³
Shippagan’s area, at 40%, is above the median in New Brunswick (20%), and 17% of its tests passed 600 Bq/m³.
Health Canada radon survey (2009–2011), by 2007 health region; medians of towns of 2,500 people or more.
At least three tests in ten top the guideline around Shippagan, a level reached by 1.5% of Canada’s towns.
Each bar: the share of Canada’s towns of 2,500 people or more whose survey area had that share of tests over 200 Bq/m³.
One home in Shippagan can be high while next door is low; a three-month test settles it.
Health Canada, Cross-Canada Survey of Radon Concentrations in Homes (2009–2011). · Radon tests: one figure for all of the Region 6 health region
Weather and fire alerts for Shippagan
Environment and Climate Change Canada issues the weather alerts for Shippagan; Alert Ready carries the urgent ones to phones, radio and TV.
| Alert | What it means |
|---|---|
| Warning | Severe weather is happening or about to: act now. |
| Watch | Conditions favour severe weather: be ready. |
| Advisory | Weather that is less severe but could disrupt the day. |
| Special weather statement | Unusual weather worth knowing about. |
| Special air quality statement | Poor air, often wildfire smoke. |
In fire season, check CWFIS for danger and active fires around Shippagan, and listen to local authorities for orders.
Weather alerts (ECCC) · Alert Ready · Fire danger and active fires (CWFIS)
Hazards in the places around Shippagan
Wildfire band, earthquake risk, radon and flood studies for each place nearby.
| Town | Wildfire | Quake $/1,000 | Radon | Flood study |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shippagan | Low | $0.036 | 40% | Yes |
| Lamèque 1,392 · 2.5 km | Low | $0.039 | 40% | Yes |
| Shippagan 3,073 · 9.4 km | Low | $0.047 | 40% | Yes |
| Bas-Caraquet 1,391 · 13 km | Low | $0.038 | 40% | Yes |
| Caraquet 1,263 · 15 km | Low | $0.043 | 40% | Yes |
Lamèque burns a little more than Shippagan, in the same low band (low here).
Radon is the survey area’s figure, so neighbours in one area share it.
Get ready for what Shippagan faces
What to do about the hazards Shippagan faces, and what to ask before you buy.
- Test for three months in winter.
- Over 200 Bq/m³: fix it.
- Kits are cheap; pros test too.
- Never drive through floodwater.
- Move papers and medicines upstairs.
- Ask whether your street is mapped.
- Clear needles and wood nearby.
- Keep a grab-and-go bag ready.
- In smoke, stay in; filter air.
- Has it had a radon test?
- Check the address on the flood map.
- Are flood and wildfire insured?
What this data can and can’t tell you
- Wildfire counts one way. The wildfire figure is the share of land within 25 km of Shippagan’s homes burned each year from 1986 to 2025, past fire rather than a forecast, and it can only lower Risk.
- Flood studies aren’t flood zones. A study’s area can be a whole watershed or province, so being on the inventory says a map exists, not that a home in Shippagan floods.
- Radon is a survey. The radon share comes from about 14,000 long-term home tests in 2009–2011, pooled for now by the 2007 health region Shippagan sits in.
- Earthquakes are modelled. Shaking damage is modelled from the ground, the buildings and the odds of each quake, and published for whole subdivisions such as Shippagan’s.
Questions about flooding and hazards in Shippagan
Is Shippagan at risk of wildfire?
Less than most of Canada: 0.1% of the land within 25 km of Shippagan has burned since 1986, the last in 2005, a low band that leaves Risk alone.
How big is the earthquake risk in Shippagan?
NRCan’s model expects shaking to cost buildings in Shippagan $0.036 a year for every $1,000 of their value, on average over many years.
Does Shippagan flood?
Shippagan’s area has been studied for flooding, and the owner’s map shows which streets lie in a zone; the grade leaves flood out.
How is Shippagan’s Hazard risk Grade worked out?
Shippagan’s Hazard risk grade is D, built on earthquakes and radon with a one-sided wildfire input.
Is radon a problem in Shippagan?
In Health Canada’s survey, 40% of 115 homes tested in Shippagan’s area were above 200 Bq/m³, though only a test tells you about one house.
Seismic risk: Natural Resources Canada. Radon: Health Canada. Wildfire: Canadian Wildland Fire Information System. Flood studies: Natural Resources Canada, Canada Flood Map Inventory. Contains information licensed under the Open Government Licence – Canada.
Sources: NRCan, Canada’s Seismic Risk Model 2022 · Health Canada, Cross-Canada Survey of Radon Concentrations in Homes · CWFIS, National Burned Area Composite and FBP fuel types · NRCan, Canada Flood Map Inventory. Under the Statistics Canada Open Licence.
Adapted from Statistics Canada (Census of Population 2021, population estimates 2025, 2021 census boundaries) under the Statistics Canada Open Licence; this does not constitute an endorsement by Statistics Canada. Neighbourhood names in some cities © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL).