Photo: Earth Science and Remote Sensing Unit , Lyndon B. Johnson Space Center · Public domainHazard risk in Bathurst is higher than in 93% of Canadian towns
Wildfire is rare near Bathurst: 1.7% of the land within 25 km has burned since 1986, a burn rate of 0.05% a year. Earthquake risk in Bathurst is ordinary: NRCan’s model puts building losses at $0.055 a year per $1,000 of value, close to the typical town’s $0.030. Radon is higher than usual: 40% of tested homes in the survey area topped the guideline, against 6.6% for the typical town. Hazard risk gives Bathurst a grade of D; its wildfire band pulls it down.
What stands out about Bathurst’s hazards
Four national sources, each read for Bathurst: earthquakes, radon, past fires and flood studies.
What Bathurst faces
Each hazard against its own yardstick; meters run from low to high on that yardstick.
Wildfire
Earthquakes
Radon
Flood study
Bathurst grades D for hazard risk
For Bathurst, Risk will be the average of earthquakes and radon, with wildfire added only if it makes the average worse.
Its place: #57 of 60 in New Brunswick and #2,505 of 2,589 Canadian towns.
How sure: Earthquake losses are a model’s expectation over many years, not a forecast for any one. Small fires and grass fires are largely missing from the national burned-area record.
Little of the land around Bathurst has burned: 1.3% within 5 km, 1.7% within 25 km since 1986
Fires mapped since 1986 around where Bathurst’s residents live, and the fuel next to their homes.
Around Bathurst fire takes 0.05% of the land in a typical year, the typical Canadian town 0.000%, which is low.
About as much forest grows next to Bathurst’s homes (87% within 5 km) as across 25 km (88%).
Shares of land within 5 and 25 km of populated blocks: burned at least once in 1986–2025 (CWFIS burned-area composite), forest fuel and grass (fire behaviour fuel types, 2026, 250 m grid).
Burn rate a year, towns in New Brunswick · highest of 60
Tracadie burns fastest in New Brunswick at 0.28% a year; Bathurst, at 0.05%, ranks 10th of 60.
Each bar: the yearly average share of land within 25 km of a town’s homes that burned, 1986–2025 (CWFIS); the seven highest towns of 2,500 people or more.
Some fire is mapped around Bathurst, but not enough to leave the low band, where 92% of Canada’s 2,610 towns are; 7.5% rank higher.
Bands of the yearly burn rate: low under 0.05%, moderate under 0.25%, high under 1%, very high 1% or more; towns of 2,500 people or more.
Fire danger and active fires (CWFIS)
Canadian Wildland Fire Information System: National Burned Area Composite 1986–2025 and fire behaviour fuel types (2026), Natural Resources Canada. Measured within 25 km and 5 km of each populated dissemination area; past fire, not a forecast.
Bathurst is on the flood map inventory: 1 study, by Service New Brunswick - GeoNB
Flood studies whose area touches Bathurst, from NRCan’s inventory, each linked to its owner.
Service New Brunswick - GeoNB holds the flood mapping that covers Bathurst (2020), linked below.
| Study | By | Year | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Inland Flood Mapping in New Brunswick and Updated Sea-Level Rise and Flooding Estimates for New Brunswick Coastal Sections 2020 | Service New Brunswick - GeoNB | 2020 | final |
Towns with a flood study on file
Its flood study puts Bathurst with 93% of towns in New Brunswick; Canada’s share is 58%.
NRCan Canada Flood Map Inventory: a study footprint touching the town’s boundary; towns of 2,500 people or more.
Listed, not scored: a flood study proves a map exists, not that Bathurst floods.
The inventory’s own caution (NRCan): “The Canada Flood Map (CFM) does not include every flood hazard map in Canada and may be incomplete or contain inaccuracies. It should not be relied upon as the official source of flood mapping information. Furthermore, if a map appears to be missing, this does not necessarily mean that the area has never been mapped. For the official version of a map, updated information, or confirmation of applicable regulations, please contact the local authority responsible for flood mapping.”
Natural Resources Canada, Canada Flood Map Inventory; links go to each study’s owner.
Earthquakes cost buildings in Bathurst $0.055 per $1,000 a year
NRCan’s seismic risk model: the damage shaking is expected to do to buildings each year, on average over many years.
At $0.055 per $1,000, Bathurst’s earthquake risk is about the typical Canadian town’s ($0.030; 1.8 times).
Shaking damage a year per $1,000 of building value
Earthquake risk in New Brunswick peaks in St. Stephen ($0.16); Bathurst, at $0.055, sits above the median of $0.036.
NRCan seismic risk model (2022): mean yearly building loss per $1,000 of value; medians of towns of 2,500 people or more.
More earthquake risk than most: only 30% of Canada’s 2,611 towns are above Bathurst.
Each column: the share of Canada’s towns of 2,500 people or more in that range of yearly loss per $1,000 (NRCan, 2022).
The model counts damage to Bathurst’s buildings and their occupants from shaking only: not liquefaction, landslides, tsunami or fires after a quake.
Natural Resources Canada, Canada’s Seismic Risk Model (2022), by census subdivision (2016 boundaries; a few 2021 subdivisions take their residents’ mean).
Test for radon in Bathurst: 40% of area homes were over the guideline
Health Canada’s survey of long-term home tests: the share above the 200 Bq/m³ guideline.
At 40% over the guideline, the area around Bathurst beats the typical Canadian town’s 6.6%.
Tested homes over 200 Bq/m³
Over 600 Bq/m³
Around Bathurst, 40% of tests were over 200 Bq/m³ and 17% over 600, against a median of 20% in New Brunswick.
Health Canada radon survey (2009–2011), by 2007 health region; medians of towns of 2,500 people or more.
At least three tests in ten top the guideline around Bathurst, a level reached by 1.5% of Canada’s towns.
Each bar: the share of Canada’s towns of 2,500 people or more whose survey area had that share of tests over 200 Bq/m³.
The share describes the area, not a house: in Bathurst as anywhere, test to be sure.
Health Canada, Cross-Canada Survey of Radon Concentrations in Homes (2009–2011). · Radon tests: one figure for all of the Region 6 health region
Weather and fire alerts for Bathurst
Alerts for Bathurst come from Environment and Climate Change Canada and, for emergencies, Alert Ready.
| Alert | What it means |
|---|---|
| Warning | Severe weather is happening or about to: act now. |
| Watch | Conditions favour severe weather: be ready. |
| Advisory | Weather that is less severe but could disrupt the day. |
| Special weather statement | Unusual weather worth knowing about. |
| Special air quality statement | Poor air, often wildfire smoke. |
Evacuation orders for Bathurst come from the municipality or the province, while CWFIS maps fire danger every day.
Weather alerts (ECCC) · Alert Ready · Fire danger and active fires (CWFIS)
How Bathurst’s neighbours compare on hazards
The same four hazards for the places next door.
| Town | Wildfire | Quake $/1,000 | Radon | Flood study |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bathurst | Low | $0.055 | 40% | Yes |
| Bathurst 13,331 · 7.4 km | Moderate | $0.052 | 40% | Yes |
| Beresford 4,389 · 10 km | Low | $0.051 | 40% | Yes |
| Nigadoo 1,102 · 13 km | Low | $0.040 | 40% | Yes |
| Beresford 6,543 · 14 km | Low | $0.047 | 40% | Yes |
| Petit-Rocher 2,019 · 19 km | Low | $0.037 | 40% | Yes |
Fire is heaviest around Bathurst (moderate), against low for Bathurst.
Radon is the survey area’s figure, so neighbours in one area share it.
Get ready for what Bathurst faces
Practical steps for Bathurst’s hazards, most pressing first.
- Test for three months in winter.
- Over 200 Bq/m³: fix it.
- Kits are cheap; pros test too.
- Never drive through floodwater.
- Move papers and medicines upstairs.
- Ask whether your street is mapped.
- Clear needles and wood nearby.
- Keep a grab-and-go bag ready.
- In smoke, stay in; filter air.
- Has it had a radon test?
- Check the address on the flood map.
- Are flood and wildfire insured?
What this data can and can’t tell you
- Radon is a survey. About 14,000 homes were tested across Canada in 2009–2011, and the share over the guideline for Bathurst is its health region’s, the survey’s design unit.
- Flood studies aren’t flood zones. NRCan’s inventory says where flood mapping exists, not where water goes; the map’s owner is the authority for Bathurst.
- Wildfire counts one way. Wildfire is read from the national burned-area record around Bathurst’s homes since 1986, a history of fire that may lower Risk but never raises it.
- Earthquakes are modelled. NRCan models what earthquakes would cost buildings each year on average, subdivision by subdivision; Bathurst’s figure is its subdivision’s.
Questions about flooding and hazards in Bathurst
Does Bathurst flood?
There is flood mapping for Bathurst on the national inventory, each study linked to its owner’s map, none of them graded.
Is Bathurst at risk of wildfire?
Not much by Canadian standards: Bathurst’s band is low, with 1.7% of the land within 25 km burned since 1986 (last in 1996), so wildfire doesn’t change its grade.
How big is the earthquake risk in Bathurst?
Expected earthquake damage in Bathurst comes to $0.055 a year for each $1,000 that buildings are worth.
How is Bathurst’s Hazard risk Grade worked out?
Hazard risk gives Bathurst D, weighing earthquakes and radon and counting wildfire only against it.
Is radon a problem in Bathurst?
40% of the 115 homes Health Canada tested around Bathurst topped the guideline; your own house needs its own test.
Seismic risk: Natural Resources Canada. Radon: Health Canada. Wildfire: Canadian Wildland Fire Information System. Flood studies: Natural Resources Canada, Canada Flood Map Inventory. Contains information licensed under the Open Government Licence – Canada.
Sources: NRCan, Canada’s Seismic Risk Model 2022 · Health Canada, Cross-Canada Survey of Radon Concentrations in Homes · CWFIS, National Burned Area Composite and FBP fuel types · NRCan, Canada Flood Map Inventory. Under the Statistics Canada Open Licence.
Adapted from Statistics Canada (Census of Population 2021, population estimates 2025, 2021 census boundaries) under the Statistics Canada Open Licence; this does not constitute an endorsement by Statistics Canada. Neighbourhood names in some cities © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL).