Wildfire low, radon 12%: how Elmhurst stands on hazards
Around Elmhurst, wildfire is practically absent from the record: 0% within 25 km since 1986, 0.000% a year. Shaking is less of a worry than in most places, at $0.006 a year per $1,000 of building value ($0.030 typical). Elmhurst grades B+ for hazard risk; wildfire is low here, so it earns no credit.
What stands out about Elmhurst’s hazards
Four national sources, each read for Elmhurst: earthquakes, radon, past fires and flood studies.
What Elmhurst faces
Each hazard against its own yardstick; meters run from low to high on that yardstick.
Wildfire
Earthquakes
Radon
Flood study
Elmhurst grades B+ for hazard risk
Two inputs always count for Elmhurst, earthquakes and radon; the third, wildfire, counts only against a town.
Its place: #10 of 185 in Manitoba and #940 of 2,589 Canadian towns.
How sure: Earthquake losses are a model’s expectation over many years, not a forecast for any one. Only 66 homes were tested in the survey area, so the radon share is rough. Small fires and grass fires are largely missing from the national burned-area record.
Few fires near Elmhurst: 0% within 5 km, 0% within 25 km
Fires mapped since 1986 around where Elmhurst’s residents live, and the fuel next to their homes.
In a typical year 0.000% of the land near Elmhurst burns; the typical Canadian town sees 0.000%, and both are low.
Around Elmhurst the forest is thin or far off: 0% of the land within 5 km and 0% within 25 km is forest fuel.
Shares of land within 5 and 25 km of populated blocks: burned at least once in 1986–2025 (CWFIS burned-area composite), forest fuel and grass (fire behaviour fuel types, 2026, 250 m grid).
Burn rate a year, towns in Manitoba · highest of 189
Near-zero burning puts Elmhurst with 60 of the 189 towns in Manitoba, far below Flin Flon (Part) at 1.68%.
Each bar: the yearly average share of land within 25 km of a town’s homes that burned, 1986–2025 (CWFIS); the seven highest towns of 2,500 people or more.
92% of Canada’s 2,610 towns are in the low band and 7.5% above it; Elmhurst is among the many where the yearly burn rate rounds to zero.
Bands of the yearly burn rate: low under 0.05%, moderate under 0.25%, high under 1%, very high 1% or more; towns of 2,500 people or more.
Fire danger and active fires (CWFIS)
Canadian Wildland Fire Information System: National Burned Area Composite 1986–2025 and fire behaviour fuel types (2026), Natural Resources Canada. Measured within 25 km and 5 km of each populated dissemination area; past fire, not a forecast.
No flood study is listed for Elmhurst
Flood studies whose area touches Elmhurst, from NRCan’s inventory, each linked to its owner.
An empty entry for Elmhurst on the inventory isn’t proof of safety; ask locally for flood maps.
Towns with a flood study on file
Mapping in Manitoba reaches 18% of towns, below the 58% across Canada, and not Elmhurst.
NRCan Canada Flood Map Inventory: a study footprint touching the town’s boundary; towns of 2,500 people or more.
Flood is shown here, never graded: a study says where a map exists, not how many of Elmhurst’s homes stand in a flood zone.
The inventory’s own caution (NRCan): “The Canada Flood Map (CFM) does not include every flood hazard map in Canada and may be incomplete or contain inaccuracies. It should not be relied upon as the official source of flood mapping information. Furthermore, if a map appears to be missing, this does not necessarily mean that the area has never been mapped. For the official version of a map, updated information, or confirmation of applicable regulations, please contact the local authority responsible for flood mapping.”
Earthquakes cost buildings in Elmhurst just $0.006 per $1,000 a year
NRCan’s seismic risk model: the damage shaking is expected to do to buildings each year, on average over many years.
0.2 times the typical $0.030: Elmhurst’s $0.006 is low for Canada.
Behind earthquake risk sits data gathered across the city of Winnipeg, with Elmhurst one part of it.
Shaking damage a year per $1,000 of building value
The median in Manitoba is $0.006; Elmhurst, at $0.006, is right beside it, and Virden tops the list at $0.007.
NRCan seismic risk model (2022): mean yearly building loss per $1,000 of value; medians of towns of 2,500 people or more.
Most of Canada’s 2,611 towns (88%) face more earthquake damage than Elmhurst.
Each column: the share of Canada’s towns of 2,500 people or more in that range of yearly loss per $1,000 (NRCan, 2022).
The loss is to Elmhurst’s buildings alone, from ground shaking; infrastructure and secondary hazards are left out.
Natural Resources Canada, Canada’s Seismic Risk Model (2022), by census subdivision (2016 boundaries; a few 2021 subdivisions take their residents’ mean).
Test for radon in Elmhurst: 12% of area homes were over the guideline
Health Canada’s survey of long-term home tests: the share above the 200 Bq/m³ guideline.
Elmhurst’s survey area reads 12% over the guideline, well past the typical Canadian town’s 6.6%.
Tested homes over 200 Bq/m³
Over 600 Bq/m³
Around Elmhurst, 12% of tests topped the guideline, about the same as the typical town in Manitoba (12%).
Health Canada radon survey (2009–2011), by 2007 health region; medians of towns of 2,500 people or more.
More high tests than most: Elmhurst sits in a band that only 22% of Canada’s 2,611 towns share, with 4.6% above.
Each bar: the share of Canada’s towns of 2,500 people or more whose survey area had that share of tests over 200 Bq/m³.
The survey sampled homes around Elmhurst; it can’t tell you your basement’s level.
Health Canada, Cross-Canada Survey of Radon Concentrations in Homes (2009–2011). · Area behind the radon tests figures: the Winnipeg health region
Weather and fire alerts for Elmhurst
Environment and Climate Change Canada issues the weather alerts for Elmhurst; Alert Ready carries the urgent ones to phones, radio and TV.
| Alert | What it means |
|---|---|
| Warning | Severe weather is happening or about to: act now. |
| Watch | Conditions favour severe weather: be ready. |
| Advisory | Weather that is less severe but could disrupt the day. |
| Special weather statement | Unusual weather worth knowing about. |
| Special air quality statement | Poor air, often wildfire smoke. |
In fire season, check CWFIS for danger and active fires around Elmhurst, and listen to local authorities for orders.
Weather alerts (ECCC) · Alert Ready · Fire danger and active fires (CWFIS)
Hazards in the places around Elmhurst
The same four hazards for the places next door.
| Town | Wildfire | Quake $/1,000 | Radon | Flood study |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elmhurst | Low | $0.006 | 12% | None listed |
| Varsity View 2,985 · 1.2 km | Low | $0.006 | 12% | None listed |
| Betsworth 7,476 · 2.9 km | Low | $0.006 | 12% | Yes |
| South Tuxedo 3,629 · 3.0 km | Low | $0.006 | 12% | None listed |
| Silver Heights 7,883 · 3.1 km | Low | $0.006 | 12% | None listed |
| Tuxedo Industrial 2,726 · 3.3 km | Low | $0.006 | 12% | None listed |
| Kirkfield 4,100 · 3.3 km | Low | $0.006 | 12% | None listed |
Varsity View (low) has the heaviest fire record of Elmhurst’s neighbours, and Elmhurst (low) matches or beats it.
Radon is the survey area’s figure, so neighbours in one area share it.
Get ready for what Elmhurst faces
What to do about the hazards Elmhurst faces, and what to ask before you buy.
- Test for three months in winter.
- Over 200 Bq/m³: fix it.
- Kits are cheap; pros test too.
- Never drive through floodwater.
- Move papers and medicines upstairs.
- Ask whether your street is mapped.
- Clear needles and wood nearby.
- Keep a grab-and-go bag ready.
- In smoke, stay in; filter air.
- Has it had a radon test?
- Ask the municipality for flood maps.
- Are flood and wildfire insured?
What this data can and can’t tell you
- Flood studies aren’t flood zones. NRCan’s inventory says where flood mapping exists, not where water goes; the map’s owner is the authority for Elmhurst.
- Earthquakes are modelled. Shaking damage is modelled from the ground, the buildings and the odds of each quake, and published for whole subdivisions such as Elmhurst’s.
- Radon is a survey. About 14,000 homes were tested across Canada in 2009–2011, and the share over the guideline for Elmhurst is its health region’s, the survey’s design unit.
- Wildfire counts one way. The wildfire figure is the share of land within 25 km of Elmhurst’s homes burned each year from 1986 to 2025, past fire rather than a forecast, and it can only lower Risk.
Questions about flooding and hazards in Elmhurst
Is Elmhurst at risk of wildfire?
Very little by the national record: Elmhurst’s band is low, with 0% of the land within 25 km burned since 1986, so wildfire doesn’t change its grade.
How big is the earthquake risk in Elmhurst?
Expected earthquake damage in Elmhurst comes to $0.006 a year for each $1,000 that buildings are worth.
Is radon a problem in Elmhurst?
Around Elmhurst, 66 survey homes were tested and 12% came in over 200 Bq/m³, a guide to the area, not to any one home.
Does Elmhurst flood?
With 0 studies on the inventory, Elmhurst’s flood risk is unmapped nationally; check with the municipality before buying.
How is Elmhurst’s Hazard risk Grade worked out?
Elmhurst grades B+ for hazard risk, from earthquakes and radon, with wildfire counted only where it lowers the grade.
Seismic risk: Natural Resources Canada. Radon: Health Canada. Wildfire: Canadian Wildland Fire Information System. Flood studies: Natural Resources Canada, Canada Flood Map Inventory. Contains information licensed under the Open Government Licence – Canada.
Sources: NRCan, Canada’s Seismic Risk Model 2022 · Health Canada, Cross-Canada Survey of Radon Concentrations in Homes · CWFIS, National Burned Area Composite and FBP fuel types · NRCan, Canada Flood Map Inventory. Under the Statistics Canada Open Licence.
Adapted from Statistics Canada (Census of Population 2021, population estimates 2025, 2021 census boundaries) under the Statistics Canada Open Licence; this does not constitute an endorsement by Statistics Canada. Neighbourhood names in some cities © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL).