Photo: FedexPope · CC BY 3.035% of homes tested in Victoria’s area are above the radon guideline
Fire seldom reaches Victoria: since 1986, 0.1% of the land within 25 km has burned (0.004% a year). Shaking is less of a worry than in most places, at $0.005 a year per $1,000 of building value ($0.030 typical). Hazard risk gives Victoria a grade of B−; its wildfire band pulls it down.
What stands out about Victoria’s hazards
Four national sources, each read for Victoria: earthquakes, radon, past fires and flood studies.
What Victoria faces
Each hazard against its own yardstick; meters run from low to high on that yardstick.
Wildfire
Earthquakes
Radon
Flood study
Hazard risk in Victoria: B−
Seismic risk and radon set Victoria’s grade, wildfire can drag it down, and flood mapping stays out of it.
How sure: The seismic figure is a long-run average from NRCan’s model, not a prediction. Small fires and grass fires are largely missing from the national burned-area record.
Wildfire is rare near Victoria: 0.1% of the land within 25 km burned since 1986, 0% within 5 km
Fires mapped since 1986 around where Victoria’s residents live, and the fuel next to their homes.
Low by Canadian standards: 0.004% of the land a year around Victoria, 0.000% for the typical Canadian town.
Since 1986 the nearest fire to Victoria’s homes came within 13 km, never inside 5 km.
With 0% forest fuel within 5 km and 0% within 25 km, the land around Victoria gives a fire little to burn.
Shares of land within 5 and 25 km of populated blocks: burned at least once in 1986–2025 (CWFIS burned-area composite), forest fuel and grass (fire behaviour fuel types, 2026, 250 m grid).
Burn rate a year, towns in Manitoba · highest of 190
Victoria ranks 28th of the 190 towns in Manitoba for burn rate, at 0.004% a year; Flin Flon (Part) leads with 1.68%.
Each bar: the yearly average share of land within 25 km of a town’s homes that burned, 1986–2025 (CWFIS); the seven highest towns of 2,500 people or more.
The low band takes in 92% of Canada’s 2,610 towns, Victoria among them, though its rate is above zero; 7.5% rank higher.
Bands of the yearly burn rate: low under 0.05%, moderate under 0.25%, high under 1%, very high 1% or more; towns of 2,500 people or more.
Fire danger and active fires (CWFIS)
Canadian Wildland Fire Information System: National Burned Area Composite 1986–2025 and fire behaviour fuel types (2026), Natural Resources Canada. Measured within 25 km and 5 km of each populated dissemination area; past fire, not a forecast.
The flood map inventory lists nothing for Victoria
Flood studies whose area touches Victoria, from NRCan’s inventory, each linked to its owner.
An empty entry for Victoria on the inventory isn’t proof of safety; ask locally for flood maps.
Towns with a flood study on file
Mapping in Manitoba reaches 18% of towns, below the 58% across Canada, and not Victoria.
NRCan Canada Flood Map Inventory: a study footprint touching the town’s boundary; towns of 2,500 people or more.
Flood mapping is shown for Victoria to be opened and checked, never turned into a grade.
The inventory’s own caution (NRCan): “The Canada Flood Map (CFM) does not include every flood hazard map in Canada and may be incomplete or contain inaccuracies. It should not be relied upon as the official source of flood mapping information. Furthermore, if a map appears to be missing, this does not necessarily mean that the area has never been mapped. For the official version of a map, updated information, or confirmation of applicable regulations, please contact the local authority responsible for flood mapping.”
Low seismic risk in Victoria: $0.005 per $1,000 of buildings a year
NRCan’s seismic risk model: the damage shaking is expected to do to buildings each year, on average over many years.
At $0.005 per $1,000, Victoria carries 0.2 times the typical Canadian town’s earthquake risk ($0.030): low.
Shaking damage a year per $1,000 of building value
The median in Manitoba is $0.006; Victoria, at $0.005, is right beside it, and Virden tops the list at $0.007.
NRCan seismic risk model (2022): mean yearly building loss per $1,000 of value; medians of towns of 2,500 people or more.
Nearly every one of Canada’s 2,611 towns (96%) expects more shaking damage than Victoria.
Each column: the share of Canada’s towns of 2,500 people or more in that range of yearly loss per $1,000 (NRCan, 2022).
The model counts damage to Victoria’s buildings and their occupants from shaking only: not liquefaction, landslides, tsunami or fires after a quake.
Natural Resources Canada, Canada’s Seismic Risk Model (2022), by census subdivision (2016 boundaries; a few 2021 subdivisions take their residents’ mean).
Radon runs high around Victoria: 35% of tested homes over the guideline
Health Canada’s survey of long-term home tests: the share above the 200 Bq/m³ guideline.
Victoria’s survey area reads 35% over the guideline, well past the typical Canadian town’s 6.6%. Nobody publishes radon tests for Victoria alone, so this card uses the figure for the Assiniboine health region.
Tested homes over 200 Bq/m³
Over 600 Bq/m³
Radon runs higher around Victoria than in most towns in Manitoba: 35% over the guideline (12% is typical), 1.8% over 600.
Health Canada radon survey (2009–2011), by 2007 health region; medians of towns of 2,500 people or more.
At least three tests in ten top the guideline around Victoria, a level reached by 1.5% of Canada’s towns.
Each bar: the share of Canada’s towns of 2,500 people or more whose survey area had that share of tests over 200 Bq/m³.
The share describes the area, not a house: in Victoria as anywhere, test to be sure.
Health Canada, Cross-Canada Survey of Radon Concentrations in Homes (2009–2011).
Weather and fire alerts for Victoria
Alerts for Victoria come from Environment and Climate Change Canada and, for emergencies, Alert Ready.
| Alert | What it means |
|---|---|
| Warning | Severe weather is happening or about to: act now. |
| Watch | Conditions favour severe weather: be ready. |
| Advisory | Weather that is less severe but could disrupt the day. |
| Special weather statement | Unusual weather worth knowing about. |
| Special air quality statement | Poor air, often wildfire smoke. |
Fire danger and active fires near Victoria are mapped daily by the Canadian Wildland Fire Information System; evacuation orders come from the municipality or province.
Weather alerts (ECCC) · Alert Ready · Fire danger and active fires (CWFIS)
Get ready for what Victoria faces
Practical steps for Victoria’s hazards, most pressing first.
- Test for three months in winter.
- Over 200 Bq/m³: fix it.
- Kits are cheap; pros test too.
- Never drive through floodwater.
- Move papers and medicines upstairs.
- Ask whether your street is mapped.
- Clear needles and wood nearby.
- Keep a grab-and-go bag ready.
- In smoke, stay in; filter air.
- Has it had a radon test?
- Ask the municipality for flood maps.
- Are flood and wildfire insured?
What this data can and can’t tell you
- Wildfire counts one way. Wildfire is read from the national burned-area record around Victoria’s homes since 1986, a history of fire that may lower Risk but never raises it.
- Earthquakes are modelled. NRCan models what earthquakes would cost buildings each year on average, subdivision by subdivision; Victoria’s figure is its subdivision’s.
- Flood studies aren’t flood zones. A study’s area can be a whole watershed or province, so being on the inventory says a map exists, not that a home in Victoria floods.
- Radon is a survey. The radon share comes from about 14,000 long-term home tests in 2009–2011, pooled for now by the 2007 health region Victoria sits in.
Questions about flooding and hazards in Victoria
Does Victoria flood?
No study on Canada’s Flood Map Inventory covers Victoria (0), which doesn’t mean it has never been mapped, so ask the municipality.
How big is the earthquake risk in Victoria?
Expected earthquake damage in Victoria comes to $0.005 a year for each $1,000 that buildings are worth.
How is Victoria’s Hazard risk Grade worked out?
Hazard risk gives Victoria B−, weighing earthquakes and radon and counting wildfire only against it.
Is radon a problem in Victoria?
35% of the 110 homes Health Canada tested around Victoria topped the guideline; your own house needs its own test.
Is Victoria at risk of wildfire?
Not much by Canadian standards: Victoria’s band is low, with 0.1% of the land within 25 km burned since 1986 (last in 2018), so wildfire doesn’t change its grade.
Seismic risk: Natural Resources Canada. Radon: Health Canada. Wildfire: Canadian Wildland Fire Information System. Flood studies: Natural Resources Canada, Canada Flood Map Inventory. Contains information licensed under the Open Government Licence – Canada.
Sources: NRCan, Canada’s Seismic Risk Model 2022 · Health Canada, Cross-Canada Survey of Radon Concentrations in Homes · CWFIS, National Burned Area Composite and FBP fuel types · NRCan, Canada Flood Map Inventory. Under the Statistics Canada Open Licence.
Adapted from Statistics Canada (Census of Population 2021, population estimates 2025, 2021 census boundaries) under the Statistics Canada Open Licence; this does not constitute an endorsement by Statistics Canada. Neighbourhood names in some cities © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL).