Photo: Andrew Filer from Seattle (ex-Minneapolis) · CC BY-SA 2.0Hazard risk in Stuartburn is higher than in 98% of Canadian towns
Wildfire is a real hazard for Stuartburn: 13% of the land within 25 km has burned since 1986, 0.52% a year, in the high band. Earthquakes matter little: NRCan’s model puts building losses at $0.005 a year per $1,000 of value, against $0.030 for the typical town. In Health Canada’s survey, 9.7% of homes tested in Stuartburn’s area exceeded 200 Bq/m³, close to the typical 6.6%. Hazard risk gives Stuartburn a grade of D−; its wildfire band pulls it down.
What stands out about Stuartburn’s hazards
Four national sources, each read for Stuartburn: earthquakes, radon, past fires and flood studies.
What Stuartburn faces
Each hazard against its own yardstick; meters run from low to high on that yardstick.
Wildfire
Earthquakes
Radon
Flood study
Stuartburn grades D− for hazard risk
For Stuartburn, Risk will be the average of earthquakes and radon, with wildfire added only if it makes the average worse.
How sure: The seismic figure is a long-run average from NRCan’s model, not a prediction. Small fires and grass fires are largely missing from the national burned-area record.
19% of the land near Stuartburn’s homes has burned since 1986, 13% within 25 km
Fires mapped since 1986 around where Stuartburn’s residents live, and the fuel next to their homes.
The yearly burn rate around Stuartburn is 0.52%, against 0.000% for the typical Canadian town: the high band.
Homes in Stuartburn sit on open or built-up ground (1.3% forest fuel within 5 km); the wider 25 km holds 11%.
Shares of land within 5 and 25 km of populated blocks: burned at least once in 1986–2025 (CWFIS burned-area composite), forest fuel and grass (fire behaviour fuel types, 2026, 250 m grid).
Burn rate a year, towns in Manitoba · highest of 190
Flin Flon (Part) burns fastest in Manitoba at 1.68% a year; Stuartburn, at 0.52%, ranks 3rd of 190.
Each bar: the yearly average share of land within 25 km of a town’s homes that burned, 1986–2025 (CWFIS); the seven highest towns of 2,500 people or more.
High is rare: 1.9% of Canada’s 2,610 towns, Stuartburn among them, with 0.2% higher still.
Bands of the yearly burn rate: low under 0.05%, moderate under 0.25%, high under 1%, very high 1% or more; towns of 2,500 people or more.
Fire danger and active fires (CWFIS)
Canadian Wildland Fire Information System: National Burned Area Composite 1986–2025 and fire behaviour fuel types (2026), Natural Resources Canada. Measured within 25 km and 5 km of each populated dissemination area; past fire, not a forecast.
Stuartburn is on the flood map inventory: 1 study, by Manitoba Infrastructure
Flood studies whose area touches Stuartburn, from NRCan’s inventory, each linked to its owner.
The flood study touching Stuartburn is Manitoba Infrastructure’s, dated 2022; its own map shows the zones street by street.
| Study | By | Year | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rat and Roseau River 2D Hydrodynamic Modeling Study | Manitoba Infrastructure | 2022 | final · not public |
Towns with a flood study on file
Only 18% of towns in Manitoba have a flood study, short of Canada’s 58%; Stuartburn is one of them.
NRCan Canada Flood Map Inventory: a study footprint touching the town’s boundary; towns of 2,500 people or more.
Flood is shown here, never graded: a study says where a map exists, not how many of Stuartburn’s homes stand in a flood zone.
The inventory’s own caution (NRCan): “The Canada Flood Map (CFM) does not include every flood hazard map in Canada and may be incomplete or contain inaccuracies. It should not be relied upon as the official source of flood mapping information. Furthermore, if a map appears to be missing, this does not necessarily mean that the area has never been mapped. For the official version of a map, updated information, or confirmation of applicable regulations, please contact the local authority responsible for flood mapping.”
Natural Resources Canada, Canada Flood Map Inventory; links go to each study’s owner.
Little shaking expected in Stuartburn: $0.005 a year per $1,000
NRCan’s seismic risk model: the damage shaking is expected to do to buildings each year, on average over many years.
Shaking costs the typical town $0.030 a year; in Stuartburn it is only $0.005, 0.2 times as much.
Shaking damage a year per $1,000 of building value
About level with the typical town in Manitoba: Stuartburn’s $0.005 against $0.006; Virden reaches $0.007.
NRCan seismic risk model (2022): mean yearly building loss per $1,000 of value; medians of towns of 2,500 people or more.
Nearly every one of Canada’s 2,611 towns (96%) expects more shaking damage than Stuartburn.
Each column: the share of Canada’s towns of 2,500 people or more in that range of yearly loss per $1,000 (NRCan, 2022).
Roads, pipes and bridges aren’t in Stuartburn’s figure, nor landslides or tsunami: it is buildings and shaking.
Natural Resources Canada, Canada’s Seismic Risk Model (2022), by census subdivision (2016 boundaries; a few 2021 subdivisions take their residents’ mean).
Some radon around Stuartburn: 9.7% of area homes over the guideline
Health Canada’s survey of long-term home tests: the share above the 200 Bq/m³ guideline.
Stuartburn’s area, at 9.7%, is close to the 6.6% of the typical Canadian town. Stuartburn doesn’t get its own radon tests figures; the ones here come from the South Eastman health region.
Tested homes over 200 Bq/m³
Over 600 Bq/m³
Radon around Stuartburn is ordinary for towns in Manitoba: 9.7%, beside a median of 12%.
Health Canada radon survey (2009–2011), by 2007 health region; medians of towns of 2,500 people or more.
Radon tops the guideline in a modest share of homes around Stuartburn, a band holding 37% of Canada’s 2,611 towns; 26% rank above.
Each bar: the share of Canada’s towns of 2,500 people or more whose survey area had that share of tests over 200 Bq/m³.
One home in Stuartburn can be high while next door is low; a three-month test settles it.
Health Canada, Cross-Canada Survey of Radon Concentrations in Homes (2009–2011).
Weather and fire alerts for Stuartburn
Environment and Climate Change Canada issues the weather alerts for Stuartburn; Alert Ready carries the urgent ones to phones, radio and TV.
| Alert | What it means |
|---|---|
| Warning | Severe weather is happening or about to: act now. |
| Watch | Conditions favour severe weather: be ready. |
| Advisory | Weather that is less severe but could disrupt the day. |
| Special weather statement | Unusual weather worth knowing about. |
| Special air quality statement | Poor air, often wildfire smoke. |
For fires near Stuartburn, the national fire information system maps danger and active fires daily; local authorities give any evacuation order.
Weather alerts (ECCC) · Alert Ready · Fire danger and active fires (CWFIS)
Get ready for what Stuartburn faces
Practical steps for Stuartburn’s hazards, most pressing first.
- Clear needles and wood nearby.
- Keep a grab-and-go bag ready.
- In smoke, stay in; filter air.
- Test for three months in winter.
- Over 200 Bq/m³: fix it.
- Kits are cheap; pros test too.
- Never drive through floodwater.
- Move papers and medicines upstairs.
- Ask whether your street is mapped.
- Has it had a radon test?
- Check the address on the flood map.
- How close is the forest edge?
- Are flood and wildfire insured?
What this data can and can’t tell you
- Earthquakes are modelled. NRCan models what earthquakes would cost buildings each year on average, subdivision by subdivision; Stuartburn’s figure is its subdivision’s.
- Wildfire counts one way. Wildfire is read from the national burned-area record around Stuartburn’s homes since 1986, a history of fire that may lower Risk but never raises it.
- Flood studies aren’t flood zones. A study’s area can be a whole watershed or province, so being on the inventory says a map exists, not that a home in Stuartburn floods.
- Radon is a survey. The radon share comes from about 14,000 long-term home tests in 2009–2011, pooled for now by the 2007 health region Stuartburn sits in.
Questions about flooding and hazards in Stuartburn
Does Stuartburn flood?
Stuartburn’s area has been studied for flooding, and the owner’s map shows which streets lie in a zone; the grade leaves flood out.
Is radon a problem in Stuartburn?
The area’s survey found 9.7% of 113 tested homes above Health Canada’s guideline, so a three-month test is worth doing in Stuartburn.
How big is the earthquake risk in Stuartburn?
About $0.005 a year per $1,000 of building value, NRCan’s long-run expectation for Stuartburn.
How is Stuartburn’s Hazard risk Grade worked out?
Stuartburn’s Hazard risk grade is D−, built on earthquakes and radon with a one-sided wildfire input.
Is Stuartburn at risk of wildfire?
Wildfire is Stuartburn’s main hazard, band high: 13% of the land within 25 km burned between 1986 and 2025.
Seismic risk: Natural Resources Canada. Radon: Health Canada. Wildfire: Canadian Wildland Fire Information System. Flood studies: Natural Resources Canada, Canada Flood Map Inventory. Contains information licensed under the Open Government Licence – Canada.
Sources: NRCan, Canada’s Seismic Risk Model 2022 · Health Canada, Cross-Canada Survey of Radon Concentrations in Homes · CWFIS, National Burned Area Composite and FBP fuel types · NRCan, Canada Flood Map Inventory. Under the Statistics Canada Open Licence.
Adapted from Statistics Canada (Census of Population 2021, population estimates 2025, 2021 census boundaries) under the Statistics Canada Open Licence; this does not constitute an endorsement by Statistics Canada. Neighbourhood names in some cities © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL).