Photo: Krazytea · CC BY-SA 4.043% of homes tested in Pembina’s area are above the radon guideline
For Pembina, wildfire history is close to nil: 0% of nearby land since 1986, 0.001% a year. Seismic risk runs low: $0.004 of expected damage per $1,000 of buildings a year, the typical town $0.030. Pembina grades B for hazard risk; wildfire is low here, so it earns no credit.
What stands out about Pembina’s hazards
For Pembina, from NRCan’s seismic model, Health Canada’s radon survey, the national burned-area record and the flood map inventory.
What Pembina faces
Each hazard against its own yardstick; meters run from low to high on that yardstick.
Wildfire
Earthquakes
Radon
Flood study
Hazard risk in Pembina: B
Earthquake risk and radon make Pembina’s grade; wildfire can only lower it, never raise it, and flood studies are listed but not scored.
Its place: #148 of 185 in Manitoba and #1,565 of 2,589 Canadian towns.
How sure: Earthquake losses are a model’s expectation over many years, not a forecast for any one. The burned-area record misses fires under about 10 ha and most grass and farm fires.
Wildfire is rare near Pembina: 0% of the land within 25 km burned since 1986, 0% within 5 km
Past fire around Pembina’s homes, from the national burned-area record, with the fuel within 5 km.
At 0.001% of the land a year, Pembina’s burn rate is in the low band; the typical Canadian town sees 0.000%.
Nothing inside 5 km of Pembina’s homes has burned since 1986, and the nearest scar is 11 km off.
With 0% forest fuel within 5 km and 0% within 25 km, the land around Pembina gives a fire little to burn.
Shares of land within 5 and 25 km of populated blocks: burned at least once in 1986–2025 (CWFIS burned-area composite), forest fuel and grass (fire behaviour fuel types, 2026, 250 m grid).
Burn rate a year, towns in Manitoba · highest of 189
Pembina ranks 31st of the 189 towns in Manitoba for burn rate, at 0.001% a year; Flin Flon (Part) leads with 1.68%.
Each bar: the yearly average share of land within 25 km of a town’s homes that burned, 1986–2025 (CWFIS); the seven highest towns of 2,500 people or more.
Beside 2,610 Canadian towns, Pembina reads low, with 92% of them; only 7.5% rank higher.
Bands of the yearly burn rate: low under 0.05%, moderate under 0.25%, high under 1%, very high 1% or more; towns of 2,500 people or more.
Fire danger and active fires (CWFIS)
Canadian Wildland Fire Information System: National Burned Area Composite 1986–2025 and fire behaviour fuel types (2026), Natural Resources Canada. Measured within 25 km and 5 km of each populated dissemination area; past fire, not a forecast.
No flood study is listed for Pembina
What Canada’s Flood Map Inventory lists for Pembina: who studied flooding and where to see their maps.
No flood study on the national inventory covers Pembina; ask the municipality, which is the authority for its flood maps.
Towns with a flood study on file
Flood maps are thinner in Manitoba, 18% of towns against 58% nationally, and Pembina has none.
NRCan Canada Flood Map Inventory: a study footprint touching the town’s boundary; towns of 2,500 people or more.
Flood studies don’t enter the grade; they are listed so you can open the official map for Pembina.
The inventory’s own caution (NRCan): “The Canada Flood Map (CFM) does not include every flood hazard map in Canada and may be incomplete or contain inaccuracies. It should not be relied upon as the official source of flood mapping information. Furthermore, if a map appears to be missing, this does not necessarily mean that the area has never been mapped. For the official version of a map, updated information, or confirmation of applicable regulations, please contact the local authority responsible for flood mapping.”
Earthquakes cost buildings in Pembina just $0.004 per $1,000 a year
Expected yearly building losses from earthquakes, from Natural Resources Canada’s model.
At $0.004 per $1,000, Pembina carries 0.1 times the typical Canadian town’s earthquake risk ($0.030): low.
Shaking damage a year per $1,000 of building value
Below the middle in Manitoba: Pembina’s $0.004 against a median of $0.006; Virden has $0.007.
NRCan seismic risk model (2022): mean yearly building loss per $1,000 of value; medians of towns of 2,500 people or more.
Pembina is among Canada’s quietest towns for earthquakes: 98% of the 2,611 expect more damage.
Each column: the share of Canada’s towns of 2,500 people or more in that range of yearly loss per $1,000 (NRCan, 2022).
Only shaking damage to buildings in Pembina is counted; landslides, liquefaction, tsunami and fire after a quake aren’t.
Natural Resources Canada, Canada’s Seismic Risk Model (2022), by census subdivision (2016 boundaries; a few 2021 subdivisions take their residents’ mean).
Test for radon in Pembina: 43% of area homes were over the guideline
Long-term radon tests in homes across the survey area, against Health Canada’s guideline. · Measured across the Central health region: radon tests
Radon runs above the typical Canadian town (6.6%) in Pembina’s area, at 43%.
Tested homes over 200 Bq/m³
Over 600 Bq/m³
More homes top the guideline around Pembina (43%) than in the typical town in Manitoba (12%); 7.4% went over 600.
Health Canada radon survey (2009–2011), by 2007 health region; medians of towns of 2,500 people or more.
At least three tests in ten top the guideline around Pembina, a level reached by 1.5% of Canada’s towns.
Each bar: the share of Canada’s towns of 2,500 people or more whose survey area had that share of tests over 200 Bq/m³.
Whatever Pembina’s area share, the reading that matters is your own home’s, over a winter.
Health Canada, Cross-Canada Survey of Radon Concentrations in Homes (2009–2011).
Where to get warnings in Pembina
Alerts for Pembina come from Environment and Climate Change Canada and, for emergencies, Alert Ready.
| Alert | What it means |
|---|---|
| Warning | Severe weather is happening or about to: act now. |
| Watch | Conditions favour severe weather: be ready. |
| Advisory | Weather that is less severe but could disrupt the day. |
| Special weather statement | Unusual weather worth knowing about. |
| Special air quality statement | Poor air, often wildfire smoke. |
Fire danger and active fires near Pembina are mapped daily by the Canadian Wildland Fire Information System; evacuation orders come from the municipality or province.
Weather alerts (ECCC) · Alert Ready · Fire danger and active fires (CWFIS)
Get ready for what Pembina faces
Practical steps for Pembina’s hazards, most pressing first.
- Test for three months in winter.
- Over 200 Bq/m³: fix it.
- Kits are cheap; pros test too.
- Never drive through floodwater.
- Move papers and medicines upstairs.
- Ask whether your street is mapped.
- Clear needles and wood nearby.
- Keep a grab-and-go bag ready.
- In smoke, stay in; filter air.
- Has it had a radon test?
- Ask the municipality for flood maps.
- Are flood and wildfire insured?
What this data can and can’t tell you
- Earthquakes are modelled. The earthquake figure is an expected loss, not a forecast, worked out by NRCan for each census subdivision, Pembina’s included.
- Radon is a survey. Health Canada’s survey tested some 14,000 homes over three months; until postal-area boundaries are loaded, Pembina takes its 2007 health region’s share.
- Wildfire counts one way. Burned land within 25 km of where people live, averaged over 1986–2025 and checked for fuel near homes, is the measure; it looks back, not ahead, and only ever counts against Pembina.
- Flood studies aren’t flood zones. The flood inventory points to maps; it is incomplete and not the official source, so ask the municipality about any street in Pembina.
Questions about flooding and hazards in Pembina
How is Pembina’s Hazard risk Grade worked out?
Pembina’s Hazard risk grade is B, built on earthquakes and radon with a one-sided wildfire input.
Does Pembina flood?
No study on Canada’s Flood Map Inventory covers Pembina (0), which doesn’t mean it has never been mapped, so ask the municipality.
How big is the earthquake risk in Pembina?
NRCan’s model expects shaking to cost buildings in Pembina $0.004 a year for every $1,000 of their value, on average over many years.
Is radon a problem in Pembina?
43% of the 108 homes Health Canada tested around Pembina topped the guideline; your own house needs its own test.
Is Pembina at risk of wildfire?
Not much by Canadian standards: Pembina’s band is low, with 0% of the land within 25 km burned since 1986 (last in 2002), so wildfire doesn’t change its grade.
Seismic risk: Natural Resources Canada. Radon: Health Canada. Wildfire: Canadian Wildland Fire Information System. Flood studies: Natural Resources Canada, Canada Flood Map Inventory. Contains information licensed under the Open Government Licence – Canada.
Sources: NRCan, Canada’s Seismic Risk Model 2022 · Health Canada, Cross-Canada Survey of Radon Concentrations in Homes · CWFIS, National Burned Area Composite and FBP fuel types · NRCan, Canada Flood Map Inventory. Under the Statistics Canada Open Licence.
Adapted from Statistics Canada (Census of Population 2021, population estimates 2025, 2021 census boundaries) under the Statistics Canada Open Licence; this does not constitute an endorsement by Statistics Canada. Neighbourhood names in some cities © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL).