Photo: Masterhatch · CC BY-SA 4.0Around Melita, 35% of tested homes have radon above the guideline
No wildfire is mapped within 25 km of Melita’s homes since 1986 (0% of the land, 0.001% a year). Seismic risk runs low: $0.005 of expected damage per $1,000 of buildings a year, the typical town $0.030. Hazard risk gives Melita a grade of B−, from earthquakes and radon alone.
What stands out about Melita’s hazards
Four national sources, each read for Melita: earthquakes, radon, past fires and flood studies.
What Melita faces
Each hazard against its own yardstick; meters run from low to high on that yardstick.
Wildfire
Earthquakes
Radon
Flood study
Melita grades B− for hazard risk
Earthquake risk and radon make Melita’s grade; wildfire can only lower it, never raise it, and flood studies are listed but not scored.
How sure: The seismic figure is a long-run average from NRCan’s model, not a prediction. Small fires and grass fires are largely missing from the national burned-area record.
Little of the land around Melita has burned: 0% within 5 km, 0% within 25 km since 1986
Fires mapped since 1986 around where Melita’s residents live, and the fuel next to their homes.
At 0.001% of the land a year, Melita’s burn rate is in the low band; the typical Canadian town sees 0.000%.
Nothing inside 5 km of Melita’s homes has burned since 1986, and the nearest scar is 14 km off.
Around Melita the forest is thin or far off: 0% of the land within 5 km and 0% within 25 km is forest fuel.
Shares of land within 5 and 25 km of populated blocks: burned at least once in 1986–2025 (CWFIS burned-area composite), forest fuel and grass (fire behaviour fuel types, 2026, 250 m grid).
Burn rate a year, towns in Manitoba · highest of 190
In the top quarter in Manitoba: Melita ranks 31st of 190 at 0.001% a year, with Flin Flon (Part) first at 1.68%.
Each bar: the yearly average share of land within 25 km of a town’s homes that burned, 1986–2025 (CWFIS); the seven highest towns of 2,500 people or more.
7.5% of Canada’s 2,610 towns burn fast enough to rank moderate or above; Melita stays low, with 92%.
Bands of the yearly burn rate: low under 0.05%, moderate under 0.25%, high under 1%, very high 1% or more; towns of 2,500 people or more.
Fire danger and active fires (CWFIS)
Canadian Wildland Fire Information System: National Burned Area Composite 1986–2025 and fire behaviour fuel types (2026), Natural Resources Canada. Measured within 25 km and 5 km of each populated dissemination area; past fire, not a forecast.
Manitoba Infrastructure has mapped flooding for Melita (1 study)
Flood studies whose area touches Melita, from NRCan’s inventory, each linked to its owner.
Manitoba Infrastructure holds the flood mapping that covers Melita (2018), linked below.
| Study | By | Year | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Souris River | Manitoba Infrastructure | 2018 | final · not public |
Towns with a flood study on file
Only 18% of towns in Manitoba have a flood study, short of Canada’s 58%; Melita is one of them.
NRCan Canada Flood Map Inventory: a study footprint touching the town’s boundary; towns of 2,500 people or more.
Listed, not scored: a flood study proves a map exists, not that Melita floods.
The inventory’s own caution (NRCan): “The Canada Flood Map (CFM) does not include every flood hazard map in Canada and may be incomplete or contain inaccuracies. It should not be relied upon as the official source of flood mapping information. Furthermore, if a map appears to be missing, this does not necessarily mean that the area has never been mapped. For the official version of a map, updated information, or confirmation of applicable regulations, please contact the local authority responsible for flood mapping.”
Natural Resources Canada, Canada Flood Map Inventory; links go to each study’s owner.
Little shaking expected in Melita: $0.005 a year per $1,000
NRCan’s seismic risk model: the damage shaking is expected to do to buildings each year, on average over many years.
Shaking costs the typical town $0.030 a year; in Melita it is only $0.005, 0.2 times as much.
Shaking damage a year per $1,000 of building value
Typical for its province: Melita at $0.005 beside a median in Manitoba of $0.006, with Virden on top at $0.007.
NRCan seismic risk model (2022): mean yearly building loss per $1,000 of value; medians of towns of 2,500 people or more.
Nearly every one of Canada’s 2,611 towns (96%) expects more shaking damage than Melita.
Each column: the share of Canada’s towns of 2,500 people or more in that range of yearly loss per $1,000 (NRCan, 2022).
The model counts damage to Melita’s buildings and their occupants from shaking only: not liquefaction, landslides, tsunami or fires after a quake.
Natural Resources Canada, Canada’s Seismic Risk Model (2022), by census subdivision (2016 boundaries; a few 2021 subdivisions take their residents’ mean).
Radon runs high around Melita: 35% of tested homes over the guideline
Health Canada’s survey of long-term home tests: the share above the 200 Bq/m³ guideline. · Radon tests for the Assiniboine health region
More homes than usual test high around Melita: 35% against 6.6% for the typical Canadian town.
Tested homes over 200 Bq/m³
Over 600 Bq/m³
Melita’s area, at 35%, is above the median in Manitoba (12%), and 1.8% of its tests passed 600 Bq/m³.
Health Canada radon survey (2009–2011), by 2007 health region; medians of towns of 2,500 people or more.
At least three tests in ten top the guideline around Melita, a level reached by 1.5% of Canada’s towns.
Each bar: the share of Canada’s towns of 2,500 people or more whose survey area had that share of tests over 200 Bq/m³.
Basements, soil and how a house is sealed decide its radon, so in Melita only a test can say.
Health Canada, Cross-Canada Survey of Radon Concentrations in Homes (2009–2011).
Weather and fire alerts for Melita
Alerts for Melita come from Environment and Climate Change Canada and, for emergencies, Alert Ready.
| Alert | What it means |
|---|---|
| Warning | Severe weather is happening or about to: act now. |
| Watch | Conditions favour severe weather: be ready. |
| Advisory | Weather that is less severe but could disrupt the day. |
| Special weather statement | Unusual weather worth knowing about. |
| Special air quality statement | Poor air, often wildfire smoke. |
Alert Ready carries evacuation orders for Melita to phones; CWFIS shows the day’s fire danger.
Weather alerts (ECCC) · Alert Ready · Fire danger and active fires (CWFIS)
Get ready for what Melita faces
Practical steps for Melita’s hazards, most pressing first.
- Test for three months in winter.
- Over 200 Bq/m³: fix it.
- Kits are cheap; pros test too.
- Never drive through floodwater.
- Move papers and medicines upstairs.
- Ask whether your street is mapped.
- Clear needles and wood nearby.
- Keep a grab-and-go bag ready.
- In smoke, stay in; filter air.
- Has it had a radon test?
- Check the address on the flood map.
- Are flood and wildfire insured?
What this data can and can’t tell you
- Earthquakes are modelled. NRCan models what earthquakes would cost buildings each year on average, subdivision by subdivision; Melita’s figure is its subdivision’s.
- Wildfire counts one way. Wildfire is read from the national burned-area record around Melita’s homes since 1986, a history of fire that may lower Risk but never raises it.
- Radon is a survey. The radon share comes from about 14,000 long-term home tests in 2009–2011, pooled for now by the 2007 health region Melita sits in.
- Flood studies aren’t flood zones. A study’s area can be a whole watershed or province, so being on the inventory says a map exists, not that a home in Melita floods.
Questions about flooding and hazards in Melita
Is Melita at risk of wildfire?
Some, but Melita’s low band (0% of nearby land burned since 1986, latest 2007) is short of the level that counts.
Does Melita flood?
Melita’s area has been studied for flooding, and the owner’s map shows which streets lie in a zone; the grade leaves flood out.
How big is the earthquake risk in Melita?
About $0.005 a year per $1,000 of building value, NRCan’s long-run expectation for Melita.
How is Melita’s Hazard risk Grade worked out?
Melita grades B− for hazard risk, from earthquakes and radon, with wildfire counted only where it lowers the grade.
Is radon a problem in Melita?
The area’s survey found 35% of 110 tested homes above Health Canada’s guideline, so a three-month test is worth doing in Melita.
Seismic risk: Natural Resources Canada. Radon: Health Canada. Wildfire: Canadian Wildland Fire Information System. Flood studies: Natural Resources Canada, Canada Flood Map Inventory. Contains information licensed under the Open Government Licence – Canada.
Sources: NRCan, Canada’s Seismic Risk Model 2022 · Health Canada, Cross-Canada Survey of Radon Concentrations in Homes · CWFIS, National Burned Area Composite and FBP fuel types · NRCan, Canada Flood Map Inventory. Under the Statistics Canada Open Licence.
Adapted from Statistics Canada (Census of Population 2021, population estimates 2025, 2021 census boundaries) under the Statistics Canada Open Licence; this does not constitute an endorsement by Statistics Canada. Neighbourhood names in some cities © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL).