Photo: DrBeetrootCa · CC BY-SA 4.0Radon is Lorne’s main hazard: 43% of tested homes in its area top Health Canada’s guideline
No wildfire is mapped within 25 km of Lorne’s homes since 1986 (0% of the land, 0.001% a year). Shaking is less of a worry than in most places, at $0.004 a year per $1,000 of building value ($0.030 typical). Lorne grades B for hazard risk; wildfire is low here, so it earns no credit.
What stands out about Lorne’s hazards
Four national sources, each read for Lorne: earthquakes, radon, past fires and flood studies.
What Lorne faces
Each hazard against its own yardstick; meters run from low to high on that yardstick.
Wildfire
Earthquakes
Radon
Flood study
Lorne grades B for hazard risk
For Lorne, Risk will be the average of earthquakes and radon, with wildfire added only if it makes the average worse.
Its place: #148 of 185 in Manitoba and #1,565 of 2,589 Canadian towns.
How sure: The seismic figure is a long-run average from NRCan’s model, not a prediction. Small fires and grass fires are largely missing from the national burned-area record.
Little of the land around Lorne has burned: 0% within 5 km, 0% within 25 km since 1986
Past fire around Lorne’s homes, from the national burned-area record, with the fuel within 5 km.
Forty years of fire maps put Lorne at 0.001% a year, low next to the typical Canadian town’s 0.000%.
No fire has burned within 5 km of Lorne’s homes since 1986; the nearest burn is 11 km away.
Land that isn’t forest covers nearly all the ground around Lorne: forest fuel is 0% within 5 km and 0% within 25 km.
Shares of land within 5 and 25 km of populated blocks: burned at least once in 1986–2025 (CWFIS burned-area composite), forest fuel and grass (fire behaviour fuel types, 2026, 250 m grid).
Burn rate a year, towns in Manitoba · highest of 189
At 0.001% a year, Lorne is near the top in Manitoba: 31st of 189, behind Flin Flon (Part) (1.68%).
Each bar: the yearly average share of land within 25 km of a town’s homes that burned, 1986–2025 (CWFIS); the seven highest towns of 2,500 people or more.
Beside 2,610 Canadian towns, Lorne reads low, with 92% of them; only 7.5% rank higher.
Bands of the yearly burn rate: low under 0.05%, moderate under 0.25%, high under 1%, very high 1% or more; towns of 2,500 people or more.
Fire danger and active fires (CWFIS)
Canadian Wildland Fire Information System: National Burned Area Composite 1986–2025 and fire behaviour fuel types (2026), Natural Resources Canada. Measured within 25 km and 5 km of each populated dissemination area; past fire, not a forecast.
The flood map inventory lists nothing for Lorne
What Canada’s Flood Map Inventory lists for Lorne: who studied flooding and where to see their maps.
The inventory has nothing for Lorne, but a local or conservation-authority map may still exist.
Towns with a flood study on file
Only 18% of towns in Manitoba have a flood study, short of Canada’s 58%, and Lorne is not among them.
NRCan Canada Flood Map Inventory: a study footprint touching the town’s boundary; towns of 2,500 people or more.
Nothing here counts toward Risk; the studies are pointers to the maps their owners keep for Lorne.
The inventory’s own caution (NRCan): “The Canada Flood Map (CFM) does not include every flood hazard map in Canada and may be incomplete or contain inaccuracies. It should not be relied upon as the official source of flood mapping information. Furthermore, if a map appears to be missing, this does not necessarily mean that the area has never been mapped. For the official version of a map, updated information, or confirmation of applicable regulations, please contact the local authority responsible for flood mapping.”
Little shaking expected in Lorne: $0.004 a year per $1,000
Expected yearly building losses from earthquakes, from Natural Resources Canada’s model.
At $0.004 per $1,000, Lorne carries 0.1 times the typical Canadian town’s earthquake risk ($0.030): low.
Shaking damage a year per $1,000 of building value
At $0.004, Lorne is below the typical town in Manitoba ($0.006); Virden is highest at $0.007.
NRCan seismic risk model (2022): mean yearly building loss per $1,000 of value; medians of towns of 2,500 people or more.
Lorne is among Canada’s quietest towns for earthquakes: 98% of the 2,611 expect more damage.
Each column: the share of Canada’s towns of 2,500 people or more in that range of yearly loss per $1,000 (NRCan, 2022).
Roads, pipes and bridges aren’t in Lorne’s figure, nor landslides or tsunami: it is buildings and shaking.
Natural Resources Canada, Canada’s Seismic Risk Model (2022), by census subdivision (2016 boundaries; a few 2021 subdivisions take their residents’ mean).
Test for radon in Lorne: 43% of area homes were over the guideline
Long-term radon tests in homes across the survey area, against Health Canada’s guideline. · Measured across the Central health region: radon tests
Radon runs above the typical Canadian town (6.6%) in Lorne’s area, at 43%.
Tested homes over 200 Bq/m³
Over 600 Bq/m³
Lorne’s area, at 43%, is above the median in Manitoba (12%), and 7.4% of its tests passed 600 Bq/m³.
Health Canada radon survey (2009–2011), by 2007 health region; medians of towns of 2,500 people or more.
No band is higher: Lorne is among the 1.5% of Canada’s towns with 30% or more of tests over 200 Bq/m³.
Each bar: the share of Canada’s towns of 2,500 people or more whose survey area had that share of tests over 200 Bq/m³.
The share describes the area, not a house: in Lorne as anywhere, test to be sure.
Health Canada, Cross-Canada Survey of Radon Concentrations in Homes (2009–2011).
Weather and fire alerts for Lorne
Environment and Climate Change Canada issues the weather alerts for Lorne; Alert Ready carries the urgent ones to phones, radio and TV.
| Alert | What it means |
|---|---|
| Warning | Severe weather is happening or about to: act now. |
| Watch | Conditions favour severe weather: be ready. |
| Advisory | Weather that is less severe but could disrupt the day. |
| Special weather statement | Unusual weather worth knowing about. |
| Special air quality statement | Poor air, often wildfire smoke. |
For fires near Lorne, the national fire information system maps danger and active fires daily; local authorities give any evacuation order.
Weather alerts (ECCC) · Alert Ready · Fire danger and active fires (CWFIS)
Get ready for what Lorne faces
Practical steps for Lorne’s hazards, most pressing first.
- Test for three months in winter.
- Over 200 Bq/m³: fix it.
- Kits are cheap; pros test too.
- Never drive through floodwater.
- Move papers and medicines upstairs.
- Ask whether your street is mapped.
- Clear needles and wood nearby.
- Keep a grab-and-go bag ready.
- In smoke, stay in; filter air.
- Has it had a radon test?
- Ask the municipality for flood maps.
- Are flood and wildfire insured?
What this data can and can’t tell you
- Earthquakes are modelled. Shaking damage is modelled from the ground, the buildings and the odds of each quake, and published for whole subdivisions such as Lorne’s.
- Wildfire counts one way. The wildfire figure is the share of land within 25 km of Lorne’s homes burned each year from 1986 to 2025, past fire rather than a forecast, and it can only lower Risk.
- Flood studies aren’t flood zones. A study’s area can be a whole watershed or province, so being on the inventory says a map exists, not that a home in Lorne floods.
- Radon is a survey. The radon share comes from about 14,000 long-term home tests in 2009–2011, pooled for now by the 2007 health region Lorne sits in.
Questions about flooding and hazards in Lorne
How is Lorne’s Hazard risk Grade worked out?
Hazard risk gives Lorne B, weighing earthquakes and radon and counting wildfire only against it.
How big is the earthquake risk in Lorne?
NRCan’s model expects shaking to cost buildings in Lorne $0.004 a year for every $1,000 of their value, on average over many years.
Does Lorne flood?
No study on Canada’s Flood Map Inventory covers Lorne (0), which doesn’t mean it has never been mapped, so ask the municipality.
Is radon a problem in Lorne?
43% of the 108 homes Health Canada tested around Lorne topped the guideline; your own house needs its own test.
Is Lorne at risk of wildfire?
Not much by Canadian standards: Lorne’s band is low, with 0% of the land within 25 km burned since 1986 (last in 2003), so wildfire doesn’t change its grade.
Seismic risk: Natural Resources Canada. Radon: Health Canada. Wildfire: Canadian Wildland Fire Information System. Flood studies: Natural Resources Canada, Canada Flood Map Inventory. Contains information licensed under the Open Government Licence – Canada.
Sources: NRCan, Canada’s Seismic Risk Model 2022 · Health Canada, Cross-Canada Survey of Radon Concentrations in Homes · CWFIS, National Burned Area Composite and FBP fuel types · NRCan, Canada Flood Map Inventory. Under the Statistics Canada Open Licence.
Adapted from Statistics Canada (Census of Population 2021, population estimates 2025, 2021 census boundaries) under the Statistics Canada Open Licence; this does not constitute an endorsement by Statistics Canada. Neighbourhood names in some cities © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL).