Photo: Jasonbook99 · CC BY-SA 4.0High radon around Lakeshore: 43% of homes tested in the area exceed 200 Bq/m³
Little of the land around Lakeshore has burned: 1.4% within 25 km since 1986, or 0.04% a year. Shaking is less of a worry than in most places, at $0.005 a year per $1,000 of building value ($0.030 typical). Hazard risk gives Lakeshore a grade of B−; its wildfire band pulls it down.
What stands out about Lakeshore’s hazards
For Lakeshore, from NRCan’s seismic model, Health Canada’s radon survey, the national burned-area record and the flood map inventory.
What Lakeshore faces
Each hazard against its own yardstick; meters run from low to high on that yardstick.
Wildfire
Earthquakes
Radon
Flood study
Lakeshore grades B− for hazard risk
Earthquake risk and radon make Lakeshore’s grade; wildfire can only lower it, never raise it, and flood studies are listed but not scored.
How sure: Earthquake losses are a model’s expectation over many years, not a forecast for any one. The burned-area record misses fires under about 10 ha and most grass and farm fires.
Little of the land around Lakeshore has burned: 0% within 5 km, 1.4% within 25 km since 1986
Past fire around Lakeshore’s homes, from the national burned-area record, with the fuel within 5 km.
In a typical year 0.04% of the land near Lakeshore burns; the typical Canadian town sees 0.000%, and both are low.
No fire has burned within 5 km of Lakeshore’s homes since 1986; the nearest burn is 11 km away.
Only 4.7% of the land within 25 km of Lakeshore is forest fuel, and 0% close in.
Shares of land within 5 and 25 km of populated blocks: burned at least once in 1986–2025 (CWFIS burned-area composite), forest fuel and grass (fire behaviour fuel types, 2026, 250 m grid).
Burn rate a year, towns in Manitoba · highest of 190
The land around Lakeshore burns at 0.04% a year, the 22nd highest rate of 190 towns in Manitoba; Flin Flon (Part) tops it at 1.68%.
Each bar: the yearly average share of land within 25 km of a town’s homes that burned, 1986–2025 (CWFIS); the seven highest towns of 2,500 people or more.
Some fire is mapped around Lakeshore, but not enough to leave the low band, where 92% of Canada’s 2,610 towns are; 7.5% rank higher.
Bands of the yearly burn rate: low under 0.05%, moderate under 0.25%, high under 1%, very high 1% or more; towns of 2,500 people or more.
Fire danger and active fires (CWFIS)
Canadian Wildland Fire Information System: National Burned Area Composite 1986–2025 and fire behaviour fuel types (2026), Natural Resources Canada. Measured within 25 km and 5 km of each populated dissemination area; past fire, not a forecast.
No flood study is listed for Lakeshore
What Canada’s Flood Map Inventory lists for Lakeshore: who studied flooding and where to see their maps.
The inventory has nothing for Lakeshore, but a local or conservation-authority map may still exist.
Towns with a flood study on file
Flood maps are thinner in Manitoba, 18% of towns against 58% nationally, and Lakeshore has none.
NRCan Canada Flood Map Inventory: a study footprint touching the town’s boundary; towns of 2,500 people or more.
Nothing here counts toward Risk; the studies are pointers to the maps their owners keep for Lakeshore.
The inventory’s own caution (NRCan): “The Canada Flood Map (CFM) does not include every flood hazard map in Canada and may be incomplete or contain inaccuracies. It should not be relied upon as the official source of flood mapping information. Furthermore, if a map appears to be missing, this does not necessarily mean that the area has never been mapped. For the official version of a map, updated information, or confirmation of applicable regulations, please contact the local authority responsible for flood mapping.”
Little shaking expected in Lakeshore: $0.005 a year per $1,000
Expected yearly building losses from earthquakes, from Natural Resources Canada’s model.
Shaking costs the typical town $0.030 a year; in Lakeshore it is only $0.005, 0.2 times as much.
Shaking damage a year per $1,000 of building value
Typical for its province: Lakeshore at $0.005 beside a median in Manitoba of $0.006, with Virden on top at $0.007.
NRCan seismic risk model (2022): mean yearly building loss per $1,000 of value; medians of towns of 2,500 people or more.
At the bottom of Canada’s range, Lakeshore has 96% of the 2,611 towns above it.
Each column: the share of Canada’s towns of 2,500 people or more in that range of yearly loss per $1,000 (NRCan, 2022).
Only shaking damage to buildings in Lakeshore is counted; landslides, liquefaction, tsunami and fire after a quake aren’t.
Natural Resources Canada, Canada’s Seismic Risk Model (2022), by census subdivision (2016 boundaries; a few 2021 subdivisions take their residents’ mean).
Radon runs high around Lakeshore: 43% of tested homes over the guideline
Long-term radon tests in homes across the survey area, against Health Canada’s guideline.
A higher share than most: 43% of tested homes around Lakeshore, the typical Canadian town 6.6%. For radon tests, the only official count covers all of the Parkland health region, Lakeshore included.
Tested homes over 200 Bq/m³
Over 600 Bq/m³
Around Lakeshore, 43% of tests were over 200 Bq/m³ and 12% over 600, against a median of 12% in Manitoba.
Health Canada radon survey (2009–2011), by 2007 health region; medians of towns of 2,500 people or more.
No band is higher: Lakeshore is among the 1.5% of Canada’s towns with 30% or more of tests over 200 Bq/m³.
Each bar: the share of Canada’s towns of 2,500 people or more whose survey area had that share of tests over 200 Bq/m³.
Whatever Lakeshore’s area share, the reading that matters is your own home’s, over a winter.
Health Canada, Cross-Canada Survey of Radon Concentrations in Homes (2009–2011).
Where to get warnings in Lakeshore
Environment and Climate Change Canada issues the weather alerts for Lakeshore; Alert Ready carries the urgent ones to phones, radio and TV.
| Alert | What it means |
|---|---|
| Warning | Severe weather is happening or about to: act now. |
| Watch | Conditions favour severe weather: be ready. |
| Advisory | Weather that is less severe but could disrupt the day. |
| Special weather statement | Unusual weather worth knowing about. |
| Special air quality statement | Poor air, often wildfire smoke. |
For fires near Lakeshore, the national fire information system maps danger and active fires daily; local authorities give any evacuation order.
Weather alerts (ECCC) · Alert Ready · Fire danger and active fires (CWFIS)
How Lakeshore’s neighbours compare on hazards
Wildfire band, earthquake risk, radon and flood studies for each place nearby.
| Town | Wildfire | Quake $/1,000 | Radon | Flood study |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lakeshore | Low | $0.005 | 43% | None listed |
| Ste. Rose 1,651 · 15 km | Low | $0.006 | 43% | None listed |
Fire is no heavier anywhere nearby than around Lakeshore (low), with Ste. Rose next at low.
Radon is the survey area’s figure, so neighbours in one area share it.
Get ready for what Lakeshore faces
Practical steps for Lakeshore’s hazards, most pressing first.
- Test for three months in winter.
- Over 200 Bq/m³: fix it.
- Kits are cheap; pros test too.
- Never drive through floodwater.
- Move papers and medicines upstairs.
- Ask whether your street is mapped.
- Clear needles and wood nearby.
- Keep a grab-and-go bag ready.
- In smoke, stay in; filter air.
- Has it had a radon test?
- Ask the municipality for flood maps.
- Are flood and wildfire insured?
What this data can and can’t tell you
- Earthquakes are modelled. Seismic risk is NRCan’s model of yearly building losses from shaking, averaged over many years and given for Lakeshore’s census subdivision (a neighbourhood shows its city’s).
- Flood studies aren’t flood zones. The flood inventory points to maps; it is incomplete and not the official source, so ask the municipality about any street in Lakeshore.
- Wildfire counts one way. For Lakeshore, wildfire means how much nearby land burned in the past forty years, a one-way input that can pull Risk down and nothing more.
- Radon is a survey. Health Canada’s survey tested some 14,000 homes over three months; until postal-area boundaries are loaded, Lakeshore takes its 2007 health region’s share.
Questions about flooding and hazards in Lakeshore
Is radon a problem in Lakeshore?
The area’s survey found 43% of 122 tested homes above Health Canada’s guideline, so a three-month test is worth doing in Lakeshore.
Does Lakeshore flood?
The inventory has 0 studies for Lakeshore, and an empty list isn’t a clean bill: the municipality holds any flood maps.
How is Lakeshore’s Hazard risk Grade worked out?
Hazard risk gives Lakeshore B−, weighing earthquakes and radon and counting wildfire only against it.
How big is the earthquake risk in Lakeshore?
In NRCan’s seismic model, Lakeshore’s buildings lose $0.005 per $1,000 of value in an average year.
Is Lakeshore at risk of wildfire?
Some, but Lakeshore’s low band (1.4% of nearby land burned since 1986, latest 2021) is short of the level that counts.
Seismic risk: Natural Resources Canada. Radon: Health Canada. Wildfire: Canadian Wildland Fire Information System. Flood studies: Natural Resources Canada, Canada Flood Map Inventory. Contains information licensed under the Open Government Licence – Canada.
Sources: NRCan, Canada’s Seismic Risk Model 2022 · Health Canada, Cross-Canada Survey of Radon Concentrations in Homes · CWFIS, National Burned Area Composite and FBP fuel types · NRCan, Canada Flood Map Inventory. Under the Statistics Canada Open Licence.
Adapted from Statistics Canada (Census of Population 2021, population estimates 2025, 2021 census boundaries) under the Statistics Canada Open Licence; this does not constitute an endorsement by Statistics Canada. Neighbourhood names in some cities © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL).