Photo: Quintin Soloviev · CC BY 4.0Kelsey faces more hazards than 96% of Canadian towns
With 0.34% of the land around it burning each year, Kelsey sits in the high wildfire band (13% within 25 km since 1986). Seismic risk runs low: $0.005 of expected damage per $1,000 of buildings a year, the typical town $0.030. In Health Canada’s survey, 12% of homes tested in the area exceeded 200 Bq/m³ (6.6% typical). Kelsey grades D− for hazard risk, with wildfire counted against it.
What stands out about Kelsey’s hazards
For Kelsey, from NRCan’s seismic model, Health Canada’s radon survey, the national burned-area record and the flood map inventory.
What Kelsey faces
Each hazard against its own yardstick; meters run from low to high on that yardstick.
Wildfire
Earthquakes
Radon
Flood study
Kelsey grades D− for hazard risk
The grade weighs Kelsey’s seismic risk and radon equally, and wildfire is one-sided: a high band counts against a town, a low one earns nothing.
How sure: The seismic figure is a long-run average from NRCan’s model, not a prediction. The burned-area record misses fires under about 10 ha and most grass and farm fires.
Fire country: 13% of the land within 25 km of Kelsey has burned since 1986, 13% within 5 km
Fires mapped since 1986 around where Kelsey’s residents live, and the fuel next to their homes.
The yearly burn rate around Kelsey is 0.34%, against 0.000% for the typical Canadian town: the high band.
There is forest near Kelsey’s homes (31% within 5 km) and more of it further out (47% within 25 km).
Shares of land within 5 and 25 km of populated blocks: burned at least once in 1986–2025 (CWFIS burned-area composite), forest fuel and grass (fire behaviour fuel types, 2026, 250 m grid).
Burn rate a year, towns in Manitoba · highest of 190
In the top quarter in Manitoba: Kelsey ranks 4th of 190 at 0.34% a year, with Flin Flon (Part) first at 1.68%.
Each bar: the yearly average share of land within 25 km of a town’s homes that burned, 1986–2025 (CWFIS); the seven highest towns of 2,500 people or more.
High is rare: 1.9% of Canada’s 2,610 towns, Kelsey among them, with 0.2% higher still.
Bands of the yearly burn rate: low under 0.05%, moderate under 0.25%, high under 1%, very high 1% or more; towns of 2,500 people or more.
Fire danger and active fires (CWFIS)
Canadian Wildland Fire Information System: National Burned Area Composite 1986–2025 and fire behaviour fuel types (2026), Natural Resources Canada. Measured within 25 km and 5 km of each populated dissemination area; past fire, not a forecast.
Hydrologic Forecasting and Water Management Branch of Manitoba Transporation and Infrastructure has mapped flooding for Kelsey (1 study)
Flood studies whose area touches Kelsey, from NRCan’s inventory, each linked to its owner.
Hydrologic Forecasting and Water Management Branch of Manitoba Transporation and Infrastructure studied flooding in an area that includes Kelsey (2025); open its map to see which streets lie in a flood zone.
| Study | By | Year | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hydrodynamic Modelling Study of the Saskatchewan, Carrot, and Pasquia Rivers - The Pas | Hydrologic Forecasting and Water Management Branch of Manitoba Transporation and Infrastructure | 2025 | final · not public |
Towns with a flood study on file
Its flood study sets Kelsey apart in Manitoba, where 18% of towns have one (Canada: 58%).
NRCan Canada Flood Map Inventory: a study footprint touching the town’s boundary; towns of 2,500 people or more.
Flood mapping is shown for Kelsey to be opened and checked, never turned into a grade.
The inventory’s own caution (NRCan): “The Canada Flood Map (CFM) does not include every flood hazard map in Canada and may be incomplete or contain inaccuracies. It should not be relied upon as the official source of flood mapping information. Furthermore, if a map appears to be missing, this does not necessarily mean that the area has never been mapped. For the official version of a map, updated information, or confirmation of applicable regulations, please contact the local authority responsible for flood mapping.”
Natural Resources Canada, Canada Flood Map Inventory; links go to each study’s owner.
Earthquakes cost buildings in Kelsey just $0.005 per $1,000 a year
NRCan’s seismic risk model: the damage shaking is expected to do to buildings each year, on average over many years.
0.2 times the typical $0.030: Kelsey’s $0.005 is low for Canada.
Shaking damage a year per $1,000 of building value
Earthquake risk around Kelsey ($0.005) matches the middle in Manitoba ($0.006), far from Virden’s $0.007.
NRCan seismic risk model (2022): mean yearly building loss per $1,000 of value; medians of towns of 2,500 people or more.
Kelsey is among Canada’s quietest towns for earthquakes: 96% of the 2,611 expect more damage.
Each column: the share of Canada’s towns of 2,500 people or more in that range of yearly loss per $1,000 (NRCan, 2022).
For Kelsey the model prices shaking damage to buildings, nothing more.
Natural Resources Canada, Canada’s Seismic Risk Model (2022), by census subdivision (2016 boundaries; a few 2021 subdivisions take their residents’ mean).
Radon runs high around Kelsey: 12% of tested homes over the guideline
Health Canada’s survey of long-term home tests: the share above the 200 Bq/m³ guideline.
At 12% over the guideline, the area around Kelsey beats the typical Canadian town’s 6.6%. For radon tests, the only official count covers all of the Norman health region, Kelsey included.
Tested homes over 200 Bq/m³
Over 600 Bq/m³
0.5% of tests around Kelsey passed 600 Bq/m³; over 200, its 12% matches the median in Manitoba, 12%.
Health Canada radon survey (2009–2011), by 2007 health region; medians of towns of 2,500 people or more.
One test in ten or more tops the guideline around Kelsey, as in 22% of Canada’s 2,611 towns; 4.6% go higher.
Each bar: the share of Canada’s towns of 2,500 people or more whose survey area had that share of tests over 200 Bq/m³.
A low area share in Kelsey doesn’t clear a house, nor does a high one condemn it: test.
Health Canada, Cross-Canada Survey of Radon Concentrations in Homes (2009–2011).
Where to get warnings in Kelsey
Alerts for Kelsey come from Environment and Climate Change Canada and, for emergencies, Alert Ready.
| Alert | What it means |
|---|---|
| Warning | Severe weather is happening or about to: act now. |
| Watch | Conditions favour severe weather: be ready. |
| Advisory | Weather that is less severe but could disrupt the day. |
| Special weather statement | Unusual weather worth knowing about. |
| Special air quality statement | Poor air, often wildfire smoke. |
Fire danger and active fires near Kelsey are mapped daily by the Canadian Wildland Fire Information System; evacuation orders come from the municipality or province.
Weather alerts (ECCC) · Alert Ready · Fire danger and active fires (CWFIS)
Get ready for what Kelsey faces
What to do about the hazards Kelsey faces, and what to ask before you buy.
- Clear needles and wood nearby.
- Keep a grab-and-go bag ready.
- In smoke, stay in; filter air.
- Test for three months in winter.
- Over 200 Bq/m³: fix it.
- Kits are cheap; pros test too.
- Never drive through floodwater.
- Move papers and medicines upstairs.
- Ask whether your street is mapped.
- Has it had a radon test?
- Check the address on the flood map.
- How close is the forest edge?
- Are flood and wildfire insured?
What this data can and can’t tell you
- Radon is a survey. Radon figures pool the survey’s home tests by area: postal areas once their boundaries arrive, the 2007 health region around Kelsey until then.
- Flood studies aren’t flood zones. Flood studies cover areas of every size, which is why the page lists them for Kelsey without grading them.
- Earthquakes are modelled. The earthquake figure is an expected loss, not a forecast, worked out by NRCan for each census subdivision, Kelsey’s included.
- Wildfire counts one way. Burned land within 25 km of where people live, averaged over 1986–2025 and checked for fuel near homes, is the measure; it looks back, not ahead, and only ever counts against Kelsey.
Questions about flooding and hazards in Kelsey
Is Kelsey at risk of wildfire?
More than most Canadian towns; Kelsey’s high band rests on 13% of nearby land burned since 1986 (most recently 2025).
Does Kelsey flood?
A flood study covers Kelsey on Canada’s Flood Map Inventory; open the owner’s map to check a street, since flood isn’t graded.
How big is the earthquake risk in Kelsey?
About $0.005 a year per $1,000 of building value, NRCan’s long-run expectation for Kelsey.
Is radon a problem in Kelsey?
Around Kelsey, 212 survey homes were tested and 12% came in over 200 Bq/m³, a guide to the area, not to any one home.
How is Kelsey’s Hazard risk Grade worked out?
Hazard risk gives Kelsey D−, weighing earthquakes and radon and counting wildfire only against it.
Seismic risk: Natural Resources Canada. Radon: Health Canada. Wildfire: Canadian Wildland Fire Information System. Flood studies: Natural Resources Canada, Canada Flood Map Inventory. Contains information licensed under the Open Government Licence – Canada.
Sources: NRCan, Canada’s Seismic Risk Model 2022 · Health Canada, Cross-Canada Survey of Radon Concentrations in Homes · CWFIS, National Burned Area Composite and FBP fuel types · NRCan, Canada Flood Map Inventory. Under the Statistics Canada Open Licence.
Adapted from Statistics Canada (Census of Population 2021, population estimates 2025, 2021 census boundaries) under the Statistics Canada Open Licence; this does not constitute an endorsement by Statistics Canada. Neighbourhood names in some cities © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL).