Photo: Krazytea · CC BY-SA 4.0Around Grey, 43% of tested homes have radon above the guideline
Wildfire isn’t Grey’s worry: 0% of the land within 25 km burned since 1986 (0.000% a year). Earthquakes matter little: NRCan’s model puts building losses at $0.005 a year per $1,000 of value, against $0.030 for the typical town. Hazard risk gives Grey a grade of B−, from earthquakes and radon alone.
What stands out about Grey’s hazards
For Grey, from NRCan’s seismic model, Health Canada’s radon survey, the national burned-area record and the flood map inventory.
What Grey faces
Each hazard against its own yardstick; meters run from low to high on that yardstick.
Wildfire
Earthquakes
Radon
Flood study
Grey grades B− for hazard risk
Risk averages earthquakes and radon; wildfire joins only where it pulls the average down, so a town like Grey with little fire nearby would get no credit for it.
Its place: #158 of 185 in Manitoba and #1,651 of 2,589 Canadian towns.
How sure: Earthquake losses are a model’s expectation over many years, not a forecast for any one. The burned-area record misses fires under about 10 ha and most grass and farm fires.
Little of the land around Grey has burned: 0% within 5 km, 0% within 25 km since 1986
Fires mapped since 1986 around where Grey’s residents live, and the fuel next to their homes.
With 0.000% burned a year, Grey is among the many low-band places (the typical Canadian town 0.000%).
The 5 km ring around Grey’s homes is clear of burns since 1986, the nearest 15 km out.
Little near Grey’s homes can carry a forest fire; only 0% of the land within 5 km is forest fuel, and 0% within 25 km.
Shares of land within 5 and 25 km of populated blocks: burned at least once in 1986–2025 (CWFIS burned-area composite), forest fuel and grass (fire behaviour fuel types, 2026, 250 m grid).
Burn rate a year, towns in Manitoba · highest of 189
Flin Flon (Part) has the highest burn rate in Manitoba, 1.68% a year; around Grey, as around 60 of the 189 towns, it rounds to zero.
Each bar: the yearly average share of land within 25 km of a town’s homes that burned, 1986–2025 (CWFIS); the seven highest towns of 2,500 people or more.
Only 7.5% of Canada’s 2,610 towns are above the low band, which holds 92%; Grey, at a rounded zero, is far from them.
Bands of the yearly burn rate: low under 0.05%, moderate under 0.25%, high under 1%, very high 1% or more; towns of 2,500 people or more.
Fire danger and active fires (CWFIS)
Canadian Wildland Fire Information System: National Burned Area Composite 1986–2025 and fire behaviour fuel types (2026), Natural Resources Canada. Measured within 25 km and 5 km of each populated dissemination area; past fire, not a forecast.
No flood study is listed for Grey
Flood studies whose area touches Grey, from NRCan’s inventory, each linked to its owner.
No flood study on the national inventory covers Grey; ask the municipality, which is the authority for its flood maps.
Towns with a flood study on file
Grey has no flood study on file; only 18% of towns in Manitoba do, against 58% across Canada.
NRCan Canada Flood Map Inventory: a study footprint touching the town’s boundary; towns of 2,500 people or more.
Flood studies don’t enter the grade; they are listed so you can open the official map for Grey.
The inventory’s own caution (NRCan): “The Canada Flood Map (CFM) does not include every flood hazard map in Canada and may be incomplete or contain inaccuracies. It should not be relied upon as the official source of flood mapping information. Furthermore, if a map appears to be missing, this does not necessarily mean that the area has never been mapped. For the official version of a map, updated information, or confirmation of applicable regulations, please contact the local authority responsible for flood mapping.”
Earthquakes cost buildings in Grey just $0.005 per $1,000 a year
NRCan’s seismic risk model: the damage shaking is expected to do to buildings each year, on average over many years.
0.2 times the typical $0.030: Grey’s $0.005 is low for Canada.
Shaking damage a year per $1,000 of building value
Earthquake risk around Grey ($0.005) matches the middle in Manitoba ($0.006), far from Virden’s $0.007.
NRCan seismic risk model (2022): mean yearly building loss per $1,000 of value; medians of towns of 2,500 people or more.
At the bottom of Canada’s range, Grey has 96% of the 2,611 towns above it.
Each column: the share of Canada’s towns of 2,500 people or more in that range of yearly loss per $1,000 (NRCan, 2022).
For Grey the model prices shaking damage to buildings, nothing more.
Natural Resources Canada, Canada’s Seismic Risk Model (2022), by census subdivision (2016 boundaries; a few 2021 subdivisions take their residents’ mean).
Radon runs high around Grey: 43% of tested homes over the guideline
Health Canada’s survey of long-term home tests: the share above the 200 Bq/m³ guideline.
More homes than usual test high around Grey: 43% against 6.6% for the typical Canadian town.
Tested homes over 200 Bq/m³
Over 600 Bq/m³
Grey’s area, at 43%, is above the median in Manitoba (12%), and 7.4% of its tests passed 600 Bq/m³.
Health Canada radon survey (2009–2011), by 2007 health region; medians of towns of 2,500 people or more.
Grey is in the top band, 30% or more, with just 1.5% of Canada’s towns.
Each bar: the share of Canada’s towns of 2,500 people or more whose survey area had that share of tests over 200 Bq/m³.
Health Canada advises testing every home, Grey’s included, whatever the area’s figure.
Health Canada, Cross-Canada Survey of Radon Concentrations in Homes (2009–2011). · Radon tests published for the Central health region, not by town
Where to get warnings in Grey
Alerts for Grey come from Environment and Climate Change Canada and, for emergencies, Alert Ready.
| Alert | What it means |
|---|---|
| Warning | Severe weather is happening or about to: act now. |
| Watch | Conditions favour severe weather: be ready. |
| Advisory | Weather that is less severe but could disrupt the day. |
| Special weather statement | Unusual weather worth knowing about. |
| Special air quality statement | Poor air, often wildfire smoke. |
Alert Ready carries evacuation orders for Grey to phones; CWFIS shows the day’s fire danger.
Weather alerts (ECCC) · Alert Ready · Fire danger and active fires (CWFIS)
How Grey’s neighbours compare on hazards
The same four hazards for the places next door.
| Town | Wildfire | Quake $/1,000 | Radon | Flood study |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grey | Low | $0.005 | 43% | None listed |
| Dufferin 2,587 · 16 km | Low | $0.005 | 43% | None listed |
The neighbour with the most fire is Dufferin (low), still no more than Grey (low).
Radon is the survey area’s figure, so neighbours in one area share it.
Get ready for what Grey faces
What to do about the hazards Grey faces, and what to ask before you buy.
- Test for three months in winter.
- Over 200 Bq/m³: fix it.
- Kits are cheap; pros test too.
- Never drive through floodwater.
- Move papers and medicines upstairs.
- Ask whether your street is mapped.
- Clear needles and wood nearby.
- Keep a grab-and-go bag ready.
- In smoke, stay in; filter air.
- Has it had a radon test?
- Ask the municipality for flood maps.
- Are flood and wildfire insured?
What this data can and can’t tell you
- Flood studies aren’t flood zones. The flood inventory points to maps; it is incomplete and not the official source, so ask the municipality about any street in Grey.
- Wildfire counts one way. For Grey, wildfire means how much nearby land burned in the past forty years, a one-way input that can pull Risk down and nothing more.
- Earthquakes are modelled. Seismic risk is NRCan’s model of yearly building losses from shaking, averaged over many years and given for Grey’s census subdivision (a neighbourhood shows its city’s).
- Radon is a survey. Health Canada’s survey tested some 14,000 homes over three months; until postal-area boundaries are loaded, Grey takes its 2007 health region’s share.
Questions about flooding and hazards in Grey
Does Grey flood?
With 0 studies on the inventory, Grey’s flood risk is unmapped nationally; check with the municipality before buying.
How big is the earthquake risk in Grey?
Expected earthquake damage in Grey comes to $0.005 a year for each $1,000 that buildings are worth.
Is radon a problem in Grey?
Around Grey, 108 survey homes were tested and 43% came in over 200 Bq/m³, a guide to the area, not to any one home.
How is Grey’s Hazard risk Grade worked out?
Grey’s Hazard risk grade is B−, built on earthquakes and radon with a one-sided wildfire input.
Is Grey at risk of wildfire?
Fire has reached 0% of the land around Grey since 1986 (last in 2003); at low, it neither helps nor hurts the grade.
Seismic risk: Natural Resources Canada. Radon: Health Canada. Wildfire: Canadian Wildland Fire Information System. Flood studies: Natural Resources Canada, Canada Flood Map Inventory. Contains information licensed under the Open Government Licence – Canada.
Sources: NRCan, Canada’s Seismic Risk Model 2022 · Health Canada, Cross-Canada Survey of Radon Concentrations in Homes · CWFIS, National Burned Area Composite and FBP fuel types · NRCan, Canada Flood Map Inventory. Under the Statistics Canada Open Licence.
Adapted from Statistics Canada (Census of Population 2021, population estimates 2025, 2021 census boundaries) under the Statistics Canada Open Licence; this does not constitute an endorsement by Statistics Canada. Neighbourhood names in some cities © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL).