Photo: Rob Swystun from Winnipeg, Canada · CC BY 2.0Grahamdale faces more hazards than almost every Canadian town
Wildfire is a real hazard for Grahamdale: 29% of the land within 25 km has burned since 1986, 0.85% a year, in the high band. Seismic risk runs low: $0.005 of expected damage per $1,000 of buildings a year, the typical town $0.030. In Health Canada’s survey, 25% of homes tested in the area exceeded 200 Bq/m³ (6.6% typical). Grahamdale grades D− for hazard risk, with wildfire counted against it.
What stands out about Grahamdale’s hazards
For Grahamdale, from NRCan’s seismic model, Health Canada’s radon survey, the national burned-area record and the flood map inventory.
What Grahamdale faces
Each hazard against its own yardstick; meters run from low to high on that yardstick.
Wildfire
Earthquakes
Radon
Flood study
Hazard risk in Grahamdale: D−
Risk averages earthquakes and radon; wildfire joins only where it pulls the average down, so a town like Grahamdale with little fire nearby would get no credit for it.
How sure: Earthquake losses are a model’s expectation over many years, not a forecast for any one. The burned-area record misses fires under about 10 ha and most grass and farm fires.
Fire country: 29% of the land within 25 km of Grahamdale has burned since 1986, 7.5% within 5 km
Past fire around Grahamdale’s homes, from the national burned-area record, with the fuel within 5 km.
The yearly burn rate around Grahamdale is 0.85%, against 0.000% for the typical Canadian town: the high band.
Homes in Grahamdale sit on open or built-up ground (1.1% forest fuel within 5 km); the wider 25 km holds 13%.
Shares of land within 5 and 25 km of populated blocks: burned at least once in 1986–2025 (CWFIS burned-area composite), forest fuel and grass (fire behaviour fuel types, 2026, 250 m grid).
Burn rate a year, towns in Manitoba · highest of 190
Grahamdale ranks 2nd of the 190 towns in Manitoba for burn rate, at 0.85% a year; Flin Flon (Part) leads with 1.68%.
Each bar: the yearly average share of land within 25 km of a town’s homes that burned, 1986–2025 (CWFIS); the seven highest towns of 2,500 people or more.
Grahamdale is one of the few of Canada’s 2,610 towns in the high band (1.9%); 0.2% rank very high.
Bands of the yearly burn rate: low under 0.05%, moderate under 0.25%, high under 1%, very high 1% or more; towns of 2,500 people or more.
Fire danger and active fires (CWFIS)
Canadian Wildland Fire Information System: National Burned Area Composite 1986–2025 and fire behaviour fuel types (2026), Natural Resources Canada. Measured within 25 km and 5 km of each populated dissemination area; past fire, not a forecast.
No flood study is listed for Grahamdale
What Canada’s Flood Map Inventory lists for Grahamdale: who studied flooding and where to see their maps.
An empty entry for Grahamdale on the inventory isn’t proof of safety; ask locally for flood maps.
Towns with a flood study on file
Grahamdale has no flood study on file; only 18% of towns in Manitoba do, against 58% across Canada.
NRCan Canada Flood Map Inventory: a study footprint touching the town’s boundary; towns of 2,500 people or more.
Flood studies don’t enter the grade; they are listed so you can open the official map for Grahamdale.
The inventory’s own caution (NRCan): “The Canada Flood Map (CFM) does not include every flood hazard map in Canada and may be incomplete or contain inaccuracies. It should not be relied upon as the official source of flood mapping information. Furthermore, if a map appears to be missing, this does not necessarily mean that the area has never been mapped. For the official version of a map, updated information, or confirmation of applicable regulations, please contact the local authority responsible for flood mapping.”
Earthquakes cost buildings in Grahamdale just $0.005 per $1,000 a year
Expected yearly building losses from earthquakes, from Natural Resources Canada’s model.
Grahamdale’s $0.005 is a fraction of the typical town’s $0.030 (0.2 times as much): quiet ground by Canadian standards.
Shaking damage a year per $1,000 of building value
Grahamdale’s $0.005 is close to the median in Manitoba, $0.006; Virden is highest at $0.007.
NRCan seismic risk model (2022): mean yearly building loss per $1,000 of value; medians of towns of 2,500 people or more.
Grahamdale is among Canada’s quietest towns for earthquakes: 96% of the 2,611 expect more damage.
Each column: the share of Canada’s towns of 2,500 people or more in that range of yearly loss per $1,000 (NRCan, 2022).
What a quake does after the shaking, fire, landslides, tsunami, falls outside NRCan’s figure for Grahamdale.
Natural Resources Canada, Canada’s Seismic Risk Model (2022), by census subdivision (2016 boundaries; a few 2021 subdivisions take their residents’ mean).
25% of homes tested around Grahamdale are over the radon guideline
Long-term radon tests in homes across the survey area, against Health Canada’s guideline.
the typical Canadian town has 6.6% over the guideline; Grahamdale’s area has 25%. Grahamdale doesn’t get its own radon tests figures; the ones here come from the Interlake health region.
Tested homes over 200 Bq/m³
Over 600 Bq/m³
Grahamdale’s area, at 25%, is above the median in Manitoba (12%).
Health Canada radon survey (2009–2011), by 2007 health region; medians of towns of 2,500 people or more.
Few of Canada’s 2,611 towns (3.1%) share the 20–30% band with Grahamdale, and 1.5% sit above it.
Each bar: the share of Canada’s towns of 2,500 people or more whose survey area had that share of tests over 200 Bq/m³.
Radon varies from house to house in Grahamdale, so the survey is a reason to test, not a result for yours.
Health Canada, Cross-Canada Survey of Radon Concentrations in Homes (2009–2011).
Where to get warnings in Grahamdale
Alerts for Grahamdale come from Environment and Climate Change Canada and, for emergencies, Alert Ready.
| Alert | What it means |
|---|---|
| Warning | Severe weather is happening or about to: act now. |
| Watch | Conditions favour severe weather: be ready. |
| Advisory | Weather that is less severe but could disrupt the day. |
| Special weather statement | Unusual weather worth knowing about. |
| Special air quality statement | Poor air, often wildfire smoke. |
Alert Ready carries evacuation orders for Grahamdale to phones; CWFIS shows the day’s fire danger.
Weather alerts (ECCC) · Alert Ready · Fire danger and active fires (CWFIS)
Get ready for what Grahamdale faces
What to do about the hazards Grahamdale faces, and what to ask before you buy.
- Clear needles and wood nearby.
- Keep a grab-and-go bag ready.
- In smoke, stay in; filter air.
- Test for three months in winter.
- Over 200 Bq/m³: fix it.
- Kits are cheap; pros test too.
- Never drive through floodwater.
- Move papers and medicines upstairs.
- Ask whether your street is mapped.
- Has it had a radon test?
- Ask the municipality for flood maps.
- How close is the forest edge?
- Are flood and wildfire insured?
What this data can and can’t tell you
- Radon is a survey. Health Canada’s survey tested some 14,000 homes over three months; until postal-area boundaries are loaded, Grahamdale takes its 2007 health region’s share.
- Earthquakes are modelled. The earthquake figure is an expected loss, not a forecast, worked out by NRCan for each census subdivision, Grahamdale’s included.
- Flood studies aren’t flood zones. The flood inventory points to maps; it is incomplete and not the official source, so ask the municipality about any street in Grahamdale.
- Wildfire counts one way. Burned land within 25 km of where people live, averaged over 1986–2025 and checked for fuel near homes, is the measure; it looks back, not ahead, and only ever counts against Grahamdale.
Questions about flooding and hazards in Grahamdale
How big is the earthquake risk in Grahamdale?
NRCan’s model expects shaking to cost buildings in Grahamdale $0.005 a year for every $1,000 of their value, on average over many years.
Does Grahamdale flood?
Nothing is listed for Grahamdale on the national inventory (0); local maps may still exist with the municipality.
How is Grahamdale’s Hazard risk Grade worked out?
Hazard risk gives Grahamdale D−, weighing earthquakes and radon and counting wildfire only against it.
Is Grahamdale at risk of wildfire?
Yes, by Canadian standards: Grahamdale’s band is high, with 29% of the land within 25 km burned since 1986 (last in 2025), so wildfire counts against its Risk grade.
Is radon a problem in Grahamdale?
In Health Canada’s survey, 25% of 121 homes tested in Grahamdale’s area were above 200 Bq/m³, though only a test tells you about one house.
Seismic risk: Natural Resources Canada. Radon: Health Canada. Wildfire: Canadian Wildland Fire Information System. Flood studies: Natural Resources Canada, Canada Flood Map Inventory. Contains information licensed under the Open Government Licence – Canada.
Sources: NRCan, Canada’s Seismic Risk Model 2022 · Health Canada, Cross-Canada Survey of Radon Concentrations in Homes · CWFIS, National Burned Area Composite and FBP fuel types · NRCan, Canada Flood Map Inventory. Under the Statistics Canada Open Licence.
Adapted from Statistics Canada (Census of Population 2021, population estimates 2025, 2021 census boundaries) under the Statistics Canada Open Licence; this does not constitute an endorsement by Statistics Canada. Neighbourhood names in some cities © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL).