Photo: Timkal · CC BY-SA 3.0Garden Hill First Nation faces more hazards than almost every Canadian town
At 1.16% of the land burned each year (43% within 25 km since 1986), Garden Hill First Nation is in the very high wildfire band. Seismic risk runs low: $0.004 of expected damage per $1,000 of buildings a year, the typical town $0.030. In Health Canada’s survey, 7.9% of homes tested in Garden Hill First Nation’s area exceeded 200 Bq/m³, close to the typical 6.6%. Garden Hill First Nation grades D− for hazard risk, with wildfire counted against it.
What stands out about Garden Hill First Nation’s hazards
For Garden Hill First Nation, from NRCan’s seismic model, Health Canada’s radon survey, the national burned-area record and the flood map inventory.
What Garden Hill First Nation faces
Each hazard against its own yardstick; meters run from low to high on that yardstick.
Wildfire
Earthquakes
Radon
Flood study
Hazard risk in Garden Hill First Nation: D−
Risk averages earthquakes and radon; wildfire joins only where it pulls the average down, so a town like Garden Hill First Nation with little fire nearby would get no credit for it.
How sure: Earthquake losses are a model’s expectation over many years, not a forecast for any one. The burned-area record misses fires under about 10 ha and most grass and farm fires.
A very high wildfire band for Garden Hill First Nation: 63% within 5 km, 43% within 25 km
Fires mapped since 1986 around where Garden Hill First Nation’s residents live, and the fuel next to their homes.
The yearly burn rate around Garden Hill First Nation is 1.16%, against 0.000% for the typical Canadian town: the very high band.
Within 5 km of Garden Hill First Nation, 21% of the land is forest fuel; widen the ring to 25 km and it is 50%.
Shares of land within 5 and 25 km of populated blocks: burned at least once in 1986–2025 (CWFIS burned-area composite), forest fuel and grass (fire behaviour fuel types, 2026, 250 m grid).
Burn rate a year, towns in Manitoba · highest of 190
Garden Hill First Nation ranks 2nd of the 190 towns in Manitoba for burn rate, at 1.16% a year; Flin Flon (Part) leads with 1.68%.
Each bar: the yearly average share of land within 25 km of a town’s homes that burned, 1986–2025 (CWFIS); the seven highest towns of 2,500 people or more.
Very high is the rarest band, 0.2% of Canada’s 2,610 towns, and Garden Hill First Nation is in it.
Bands of the yearly burn rate: low under 0.05%, moderate under 0.25%, high under 1%, very high 1% or more; towns of 2,500 people or more.
Fire danger and active fires (CWFIS)
Canadian Wildland Fire Information System: National Burned Area Composite 1986–2025 and fire behaviour fuel types (2026), Natural Resources Canada. Measured within 25 km and 5 km of each populated dissemination area; past fire, not a forecast.
No flood study is listed for Garden Hill First Nation
Flood studies whose area touches Garden Hill First Nation, from NRCan’s inventory, each linked to its owner.
An empty entry for Garden Hill First Nation on the inventory isn’t proof of safety; ask locally for flood maps.
Towns with a flood study on file
Mapping in Manitoba reaches 18% of towns, below the 58% across Canada, and not Garden Hill First Nation.
NRCan Canada Flood Map Inventory: a study footprint touching the town’s boundary; towns of 2,500 people or more.
Flood mapping is shown for Garden Hill First Nation to be opened and checked, never turned into a grade.
The inventory’s own caution (NRCan): “The Canada Flood Map (CFM) does not include every flood hazard map in Canada and may be incomplete or contain inaccuracies. It should not be relied upon as the official source of flood mapping information. Furthermore, if a map appears to be missing, this does not necessarily mean that the area has never been mapped. For the official version of a map, updated information, or confirmation of applicable regulations, please contact the local authority responsible for flood mapping.”
Earthquakes cost buildings in Garden Hill First Nation just $0.004 per $1,000 a year
NRCan’s seismic risk model: the damage shaking is expected to do to buildings each year, on average over many years.
Garden Hill First Nation’s $0.004 is a fraction of the typical town’s $0.030 (0.1 times as much): quiet ground by Canadian standards.
Shaking damage a year per $1,000 of building value
The typical town in Manitoba expects $0.006 a year in shaking damage; Garden Hill First Nation expects less, $0.004, and Virden the most, $0.007.
NRCan seismic risk model (2022): mean yearly building loss per $1,000 of value; medians of towns of 2,500 people or more.
Nearly every one of Canada’s 2,611 towns (98%) expects more shaking damage than Garden Hill First Nation.
Each column: the share of Canada’s towns of 2,500 people or more in that range of yearly loss per $1,000 (NRCan, 2022).
What a quake does after the shaking, fire, landslides, tsunami, falls outside NRCan’s figure for Garden Hill First Nation.
Natural Resources Canada, Canada’s Seismic Risk Model (2022), by census subdivision (2016 boundaries; a few 2021 subdivisions take their residents’ mean).
Some radon around Garden Hill First Nation: 7.9% of area homes over the guideline
Health Canada’s survey of long-term home tests: the share above the 200 Bq/m³ guideline.
At 7.9% over the guideline, the area around Garden Hill First Nation is about level with the typical Canadian town’s 6.6%. Garden Hill First Nation shares its radon tests numbers with the rest of the Burntwood/Churchill health region.
Tested homes over 200 Bq/m³
Over 600 Bq/m³
Below the typical town in Manitoba (12%) at 7.9%, the area around Garden Hill First Nation still had 0.7% of tests over 600 Bq/m³.
Health Canada radon survey (2009–2011), by 2007 health region; medians of towns of 2,500 people or more.
26% of Canada’s 2,611 towns have more homes over 200 Bq/m³ than Garden Hill First Nation’s 5–10% band, which holds 37%.
Each bar: the share of Canada’s towns of 2,500 people or more whose survey area had that share of tests over 200 Bq/m³.
Health Canada advises testing every home, Garden Hill First Nation’s included, whatever the area’s figure.
Health Canada, Cross-Canada Survey of Radon Concentrations in Homes (2009–2011).
Where to get warnings in Garden Hill First Nation
Alerts for Garden Hill First Nation come from Environment and Climate Change Canada and, for emergencies, Alert Ready.
| Alert | What it means |
|---|---|
| Warning | Severe weather is happening or about to: act now. |
| Watch | Conditions favour severe weather: be ready. |
| Advisory | Weather that is less severe but could disrupt the day. |
| Special weather statement | Unusual weather worth knowing about. |
| Special air quality statement | Poor air, often wildfire smoke. |
Fire danger and active fires near Garden Hill First Nation are mapped daily by the Canadian Wildland Fire Information System; evacuation orders come from the municipality or province.
Weather alerts (ECCC) · Alert Ready · Fire danger and active fires (CWFIS)
Get ready for what Garden Hill First Nation faces
What to do about the hazards Garden Hill First Nation faces, and what to ask before you buy.
- Clear needles and wood nearby.
- Keep a grab-and-go bag ready.
- In smoke, stay in; filter air.
- Test for three months in winter.
- Over 200 Bq/m³: fix it.
- Kits are cheap; pros test too.
- Never drive through floodwater.
- Move papers and medicines upstairs.
- Ask whether your street is mapped.
- Has it had a radon test?
- Ask the municipality for flood maps.
- How close is the forest edge?
- Are flood and wildfire insured?
What this data can and can’t tell you
- Earthquakes are modelled. The earthquake figure is an expected loss, not a forecast, worked out by NRCan for each census subdivision, Garden Hill First Nation’s included.
- Wildfire counts one way. Burned land within 25 km of where people live, averaged over 1986–2025 and checked for fuel near homes, is the measure; it looks back, not ahead, and only ever counts against Garden Hill First Nation.
- Flood studies aren’t flood zones. NRCan’s inventory says where flood mapping exists, not where water goes; the map’s owner is the authority for Garden Hill First Nation.
- Radon is a survey. About 14,000 homes were tested across Canada in 2009–2011, and the share over the guideline for Garden Hill First Nation is its health region’s, the survey’s design unit.
Questions about flooding and hazards in Garden Hill First Nation
Does Garden Hill First Nation flood?
Nothing is listed for Garden Hill First Nation on the national inventory (0); local maps may still exist with the municipality.
How big is the earthquake risk in Garden Hill First Nation?
About $0.004 a year per $1,000 of building value, NRCan’s long-run expectation for Garden Hill First Nation.
How is Garden Hill First Nation’s Hazard risk Grade worked out?
Garden Hill First Nation’s Hazard risk grade is D−, built on earthquakes and radon with a one-sided wildfire input.
Is radon a problem in Garden Hill First Nation?
In Health Canada’s survey, 7.9% of 152 homes tested in Garden Hill First Nation’s area were above 200 Bq/m³, though only a test tells you about one house.
Is Garden Hill First Nation at risk of wildfire?
Yes, by Canadian standards: Garden Hill First Nation’s band is very high, with 43% of the land within 25 km burned since 1986 (last in 2025), so wildfire counts against its Risk grade.
Seismic risk: Natural Resources Canada. Radon: Health Canada. Wildfire: Canadian Wildland Fire Information System. Flood studies: Natural Resources Canada, Canada Flood Map Inventory. Contains information licensed under the Open Government Licence – Canada.
Sources: NRCan, Canada’s Seismic Risk Model 2022 · Health Canada, Cross-Canada Survey of Radon Concentrations in Homes · CWFIS, National Burned Area Composite and FBP fuel types · NRCan, Canada Flood Map Inventory. Under the Statistics Canada Open Licence.
Adapted from Statistics Canada (Census of Population 2021, population estimates 2025, 2021 census boundaries) under the Statistics Canada Open Licence; this does not constitute an endorsement by Statistics Canada. Neighbourhood names in some cities © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL).