Photo: Earth Science and Remote Sensing Unit , Lyndon B. Johnson Space Center · Public domainHazard risk in Fairford 50 is higher than in almost every Canadian town
Fire is a regular visitor: 28% of the land within 25 km of Fairford 50 has burned since 1986 (0.86% a year). Seismic risk runs low: $0.005 of expected damage per $1,000 of buildings a year, the typical town $0.030. In Health Canada’s survey, 25% of homes tested in the area exceeded 200 Bq/m³ (6.6% typical). Hazard risk gives Fairford 50 a grade of D−; its wildfire band pulls it down.
What stands out about Fairford 50’s hazards
Four national sources, each read for Fairford 50: earthquakes, radon, past fires and flood studies.
What Fairford 50 faces
Each hazard against its own yardstick; meters run from low to high on that yardstick.
Wildfire
Earthquakes
Radon
Flood study
Fairford 50 grades D− for hazard risk
The grade weighs Fairford 50’s seismic risk and radon equally, and wildfire is one-sided: a high band counts against a town, a low one earns nothing.
How sure: Earthquake losses are a model’s expectation over many years, not a forecast for any one. Small fires and grass fires are largely missing from the national burned-area record.
A high wildfire band for Fairford 50: 61% within 5 km, 28% within 25 km
Past fire around Fairford 50’s homes, from the national burned-area record, with the fuel within 5 km.
The yearly burn rate around Fairford 50 is 0.86%, against 0.000% for the typical Canadian town: the high band.
Forest fuel rises from 1.1% within 5 km of Fairford 50 to 18% within 25 km: the fuel lies away from homes.
Shares of land within 5 and 25 km of populated blocks: burned at least once in 1986–2025 (CWFIS burned-area composite), forest fuel and grass (fire behaviour fuel types, 2026, 250 m grid).
Burn rate a year, towns in Manitoba · highest of 190
In the top quarter in Manitoba: Fairford 50 ranks 2nd of 190 at 0.86% a year, with Flin Flon (Part) first at 1.68%.
Each bar: the yearly average share of land within 25 km of a town’s homes that burned, 1986–2025 (CWFIS); the seven highest towns of 2,500 people or more.
High is rare: 1.9% of Canada’s 2,610 towns, Fairford 50 among them, with 0.2% higher still.
Bands of the yearly burn rate: low under 0.05%, moderate under 0.25%, high under 1%, very high 1% or more; towns of 2,500 people or more.
Fire danger and active fires (CWFIS)
Canadian Wildland Fire Information System: National Burned Area Composite 1986–2025 and fire behaviour fuel types (2026), Natural Resources Canada. Measured within 25 km and 5 km of each populated dissemination area; past fire, not a forecast.
No flood study is listed for Fairford 50
What Canada’s Flood Map Inventory lists for Fairford 50: who studied flooding and where to see their maps.
The inventory has nothing for Fairford 50, but a local or conservation-authority map may still exist.
Towns with a flood study on file
Mapping in Manitoba reaches 18% of towns, below the 58% across Canada, and not Fairford 50.
NRCan Canada Flood Map Inventory: a study footprint touching the town’s boundary; towns of 2,500 people or more.
Listed, not scored: a flood study proves a map exists, not that Fairford 50 floods.
The inventory’s own caution (NRCan): “The Canada Flood Map (CFM) does not include every flood hazard map in Canada and may be incomplete or contain inaccuracies. It should not be relied upon as the official source of flood mapping information. Furthermore, if a map appears to be missing, this does not necessarily mean that the area has never been mapped. For the official version of a map, updated information, or confirmation of applicable regulations, please contact the local authority responsible for flood mapping.”
Low seismic risk in Fairford 50: $0.005 per $1,000 of buildings a year
Expected yearly building losses from earthquakes, from Natural Resources Canada’s model.
0.2 times the typical $0.030: Fairford 50’s $0.005 is low for Canada.
Shaking damage a year per $1,000 of building value
About level with the typical town in Manitoba: Fairford 50’s $0.005 against $0.006; Virden reaches $0.007.
NRCan seismic risk model (2022): mean yearly building loss per $1,000 of value; medians of towns of 2,500 people or more.
Fairford 50 is among Canada’s quietest towns for earthquakes: 96% of the 2,611 expect more damage.
Each column: the share of Canada’s towns of 2,500 people or more in that range of yearly loss per $1,000 (NRCan, 2022).
Roads, pipes and bridges aren’t in Fairford 50’s figure, nor landslides or tsunami: it is buildings and shaking.
Natural Resources Canada, Canada’s Seismic Risk Model (2022), by census subdivision (2016 boundaries; a few 2021 subdivisions take their residents’ mean).
25% of homes tested around Fairford 50 are over the radon guideline
Long-term radon tests in homes across the survey area, against Health Canada’s guideline. · Measured across the Interlake health region: radon tests
the typical Canadian town has 6.6% over the guideline; Fairford 50’s area has 25%.
Tested homes over 200 Bq/m³
Over 600 Bq/m³
Radon runs higher around Fairford 50 than in most towns in Manitoba: 25% against 12%.
Health Canada radon survey (2009–2011), by 2007 health region; medians of towns of 2,500 people or more.
Fairford 50 is in the 20–30% band, which holds only 3.1% of Canada’s 2,611 towns; 1.5% are higher.
Each bar: the share of Canada’s towns of 2,500 people or more whose survey area had that share of tests over 200 Bq/m³.
A survey sample isn’t a map: any home in Fairford 50 can be high, and a three-month test is the only way to know.
Health Canada, Cross-Canada Survey of Radon Concentrations in Homes (2009–2011).
Weather and fire alerts for Fairford 50
Alerts for Fairford 50 come from Environment and Climate Change Canada and, for emergencies, Alert Ready.
| Alert | What it means |
|---|---|
| Warning | Severe weather is happening or about to: act now. |
| Watch | Conditions favour severe weather: be ready. |
| Advisory | Weather that is less severe but could disrupt the day. |
| Special weather statement | Unusual weather worth knowing about. |
| Special air quality statement | Poor air, often wildfire smoke. |
Fire danger and active fires near Fairford 50 are mapped daily by the Canadian Wildland Fire Information System; evacuation orders come from the municipality or province.
Weather alerts (ECCC) · Alert Ready · Fire danger and active fires (CWFIS)
Get ready for what Fairford 50 faces
What to do about the hazards Fairford 50 faces, and what to ask before you buy.
- Clear needles and wood nearby.
- Keep a grab-and-go bag ready.
- In smoke, stay in; filter air.
- Test for three months in winter.
- Over 200 Bq/m³: fix it.
- Kits are cheap; pros test too.
- Never drive through floodwater.
- Move papers and medicines upstairs.
- Ask whether your street is mapped.
- Has it had a radon test?
- Ask the municipality for flood maps.
- How close is the forest edge?
- Are flood and wildfire insured?
What this data can and can’t tell you
- Earthquakes are modelled. NRCan models what earthquakes would cost buildings each year on average, subdivision by subdivision; Fairford 50’s figure is its subdivision’s.
- Wildfire counts one way. Wildfire is read from the national burned-area record around Fairford 50’s homes since 1986, a history of fire that may lower Risk but never raises it.
- Flood studies aren’t flood zones. NRCan’s inventory says where flood mapping exists, not where water goes; the map’s owner is the authority for Fairford 50.
- Radon is a survey. About 14,000 homes were tested across Canada in 2009–2011, and the share over the guideline for Fairford 50 is its health region’s, the survey’s design unit.
Questions about flooding and hazards in Fairford 50
How is Fairford 50’s Hazard risk Grade worked out?
Fairford 50’s Hazard risk grade is D−, built on earthquakes and radon with a one-sided wildfire input.
Does Fairford 50 flood?
With 0 studies on the inventory, Fairford 50’s flood risk is unmapped nationally; check with the municipality before buying.
How big is the earthquake risk in Fairford 50?
In NRCan’s seismic model, Fairford 50’s buildings lose $0.005 per $1,000 of value in an average year.
Is Fairford 50 at risk of wildfire?
More than most Canadian towns; Fairford 50’s high band rests on 28% of nearby land burned since 1986 (most recently 2025).
Is radon a problem in Fairford 50?
Around Fairford 50, 121 survey homes were tested and 25% came in over 200 Bq/m³, a guide to the area, not to any one home.
Seismic risk: Natural Resources Canada. Radon: Health Canada. Wildfire: Canadian Wildland Fire Information System. Flood studies: Natural Resources Canada, Canada Flood Map Inventory. Contains information licensed under the Open Government Licence – Canada.
Sources: NRCan, Canada’s Seismic Risk Model 2022 · Health Canada, Cross-Canada Survey of Radon Concentrations in Homes · CWFIS, National Burned Area Composite and FBP fuel types · NRCan, Canada Flood Map Inventory. Under the Statistics Canada Open Licence.
Adapted from Statistics Canada (Census of Population 2021, population estimates 2025, 2021 census boundaries) under the Statistics Canada Open Licence; this does not constitute an endorsement by Statistics Canada. Neighbourhood names in some cities © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL).