Photo: Samyaka.verma · CC BY-SA 3.0Radon is Carman’s main hazard: 43% of tested homes in its area top Health Canada’s guideline
For Carman, wildfire history is close to nil: 0% of nearby land since 1986, 0.000% a year. Seismic risk runs low: $0.005 of expected damage per $1,000 of buildings a year, the typical town $0.030. Hazard risk gives Carman a grade of B−, from earthquakes and radon alone.
What stands out about Carman’s hazards
Four national sources, each read for Carman: earthquakes, radon, past fires and flood studies.
What Carman faces
Each hazard against its own yardstick; meters run from low to high on that yardstick.
Wildfire
Earthquakes
Radon
Flood study
Carman grades B− for hazard risk
Seismic risk and radon set Carman’s grade, wildfire can drag it down, and flood mapping stays out of it.
Its place: #158 of 185 in Manitoba and #1,651 of 2,589 Canadian towns.
How sure: Earthquake losses are a model’s expectation over many years, not a forecast for any one. Small fires and grass fires are largely missing from the national burned-area record.
Little of the land around Carman has burned: 0% within 5 km, 0% within 25 km since 1986
Fires mapped since 1986 around where Carman’s residents live, and the fuel next to their homes.
At 0.000% of the land a year, Carman’s burn rate is in the low band; the typical Canadian town sees 0.000%.
No fire has burned within 5 km of Carman’s homes since 1986; the nearest burn is 19 km away.
Land that isn’t forest covers nearly all the ground around Carman: forest fuel is 0% within 5 km and 0% within 25 km.
Shares of land within 5 and 25 km of populated blocks: burned at least once in 1986–2025 (CWFIS burned-area composite), forest fuel and grass (fire behaviour fuel types, 2026, 250 m grid).
Burn rate a year, towns in Manitoba · highest of 189
Near-zero burning puts Carman with 60 of the 189 towns in Manitoba, far below Flin Flon (Part) at 1.68%.
Each bar: the yearly average share of land within 25 km of a town’s homes that burned, 1986–2025 (CWFIS); the seven highest towns of 2,500 people or more.
Measured against 2,610 towns, Carman is in the largest group, low (92%), and at its floor, while 7.5% rank higher.
Bands of the yearly burn rate: low under 0.05%, moderate under 0.25%, high under 1%, very high 1% or more; towns of 2,500 people or more.
Fire danger and active fires (CWFIS)
Canadian Wildland Fire Information System: National Burned Area Composite 1986–2025 and fire behaviour fuel types (2026), Natural Resources Canada. Measured within 25 km and 5 km of each populated dissemination area; past fire, not a forecast.
No flood study is listed for Carman
Flood studies whose area touches Carman, from NRCan’s inventory, each linked to its owner.
The inventory has nothing for Carman, but a local or conservation-authority map may still exist.
Towns with a flood study on file
No study touches Carman; in Manitoba, 18% of towns have one, below Canada’s 58%.
NRCan Canada Flood Map Inventory: a study footprint touching the town’s boundary; towns of 2,500 people or more.
Nothing here counts toward Risk; the studies are pointers to the maps their owners keep for Carman.
The inventory’s own caution (NRCan): “The Canada Flood Map (CFM) does not include every flood hazard map in Canada and may be incomplete or contain inaccuracies. It should not be relied upon as the official source of flood mapping information. Furthermore, if a map appears to be missing, this does not necessarily mean that the area has never been mapped. For the official version of a map, updated information, or confirmation of applicable regulations, please contact the local authority responsible for flood mapping.”
Earthquakes cost buildings in Carman just $0.005 per $1,000 a year
NRCan’s seismic risk model: the damage shaking is expected to do to buildings each year, on average over many years.
At $0.005 per $1,000, Carman carries 0.2 times the typical Canadian town’s earthquake risk ($0.030): low.
Shaking damage a year per $1,000 of building value
Earthquake risk around Carman ($0.005) matches the middle in Manitoba ($0.006), far from Virden’s $0.007.
NRCan seismic risk model (2022): mean yearly building loss per $1,000 of value; medians of towns of 2,500 people or more.
Carman is among Canada’s quietest towns for earthquakes: 96% of the 2,611 expect more damage.
Each column: the share of Canada’s towns of 2,500 people or more in that range of yearly loss per $1,000 (NRCan, 2022).
The loss is to Carman’s buildings alone, from ground shaking; infrastructure and secondary hazards are left out.
Natural Resources Canada, Canada’s Seismic Risk Model (2022), by census subdivision (2016 boundaries; a few 2021 subdivisions take their residents’ mean).
43% of homes tested around Carman are over the radon guideline
Health Canada’s survey of long-term home tests: the share above the 200 Bq/m³ guideline.
More homes than usual test high around Carman: 43% against 6.6% for the typical Canadian town.
Tested homes over 200 Bq/m³
Over 600 Bq/m³
Carman’s area, at 43%, is above the median in Manitoba (12%), and 7.4% of its tests passed 600 Bq/m³.
Health Canada radon survey (2009–2011), by 2007 health region; medians of towns of 2,500 people or more.
Carman is in the top band, 30% or more, with just 1.5% of Canada’s towns.
Each bar: the share of Canada’s towns of 2,500 people or more whose survey area had that share of tests over 200 Bq/m³.
Basements, soil and how a house is sealed decide its radon, so in Carman only a test can say.
Health Canada, Cross-Canada Survey of Radon Concentrations in Homes (2009–2011). · Area behind the radon tests figures: the Central health region
Weather and fire alerts for Carman
Environment and Climate Change Canada issues the weather alerts for Carman; Alert Ready carries the urgent ones to phones, radio and TV.
| Alert | What it means |
|---|---|
| Warning | Severe weather is happening or about to: act now. |
| Watch | Conditions favour severe weather: be ready. |
| Advisory | Weather that is less severe but could disrupt the day. |
| Special weather statement | Unusual weather worth knowing about. |
| Special air quality statement | Poor air, often wildfire smoke. |
For fires near Carman, the national fire information system maps danger and active fires daily; local authorities give any evacuation order.
Weather alerts (ECCC) · Alert Ready · Fire danger and active fires (CWFIS)
How Carman’s neighbours compare on hazards
The same four hazards for the places next door.
The fire record around Roland is a touch heavier than Carman’s, but the band is the same: low (here low).
Radon is the survey area’s figure, so neighbours in one area share it.
Get ready for what Carman faces
Practical steps for Carman’s hazards, most pressing first.
- Test for three months in winter.
- Over 200 Bq/m³: fix it.
- Kits are cheap; pros test too.
- Never drive through floodwater.
- Move papers and medicines upstairs.
- Ask whether your street is mapped.
- Clear needles and wood nearby.
- Keep a grab-and-go bag ready.
- In smoke, stay in; filter air.
- Has it had a radon test?
- Ask the municipality for flood maps.
- Are flood and wildfire insured?
What this data can and can’t tell you
- Radon is a survey. Health Canada’s survey tested some 14,000 homes over three months; until postal-area boundaries are loaded, Carman takes its 2007 health region’s share.
- Earthquakes are modelled. Shaking damage is modelled from the ground, the buildings and the odds of each quake, and published for whole subdivisions such as Carman’s.
- Wildfire counts one way. The wildfire figure is the share of land within 25 km of Carman’s homes burned each year from 1986 to 2025, past fire rather than a forecast, and it can only lower Risk.
- Flood studies aren’t flood zones. The flood inventory points to maps; it is incomplete and not the official source, so ask the municipality about any street in Carman.
Questions about flooding and hazards in Carman
How big is the earthquake risk in Carman?
About $0.005 a year per $1,000 of building value, NRCan’s long-run expectation for Carman.
Is radon a problem in Carman?
43% of the 108 homes Health Canada tested around Carman topped the guideline; your own house needs its own test.
Is Carman at risk of wildfire?
Not much by Canadian standards: Carman’s band is low, with 0% of the land within 25 km burned since 1986 (last in 2003), so wildfire doesn’t change its grade.
How is Carman’s Hazard risk Grade worked out?
Carman grades B− for hazard risk, from earthquakes and radon, with wildfire counted only where it lowers the grade.
Does Carman flood?
No study on Canada’s Flood Map Inventory covers Carman (0), which doesn’t mean it has never been mapped, so ask the municipality.
Seismic risk: Natural Resources Canada. Radon: Health Canada. Wildfire: Canadian Wildland Fire Information System. Flood studies: Natural Resources Canada, Canada Flood Map Inventory. Contains information licensed under the Open Government Licence – Canada.
Sources: NRCan, Canada’s Seismic Risk Model 2022 · Health Canada, Cross-Canada Survey of Radon Concentrations in Homes · CWFIS, National Burned Area Composite and FBP fuel types · NRCan, Canada Flood Map Inventory. Under the Statistics Canada Open Licence.
Adapted from Statistics Canada (Census of Population 2021, population estimates 2025, 2021 census boundaries) under the Statistics Canada Open Licence; this does not constitute an endorsement by Statistics Canada. Neighbourhood names in some cities © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL).