Shaking costs buildings in Sullivan $0.47 a year per $1,000 of value, 16 times the typical town’s
Fire seldom reaches Sullivan: since 1986, 0.2% of the land within 25 km has burned (0.004% a year). In Health Canada’s survey, just 0% of homes tested in the area exceeded 200 Bq/m³ (6.6% typical). Sullivan grades B for hazard risk, with wildfire counted against it.
What stands out about Sullivan’s hazards
For Sullivan, from NRCan’s seismic model, Health Canada’s radon survey, the national burned-area record and the flood map inventory.
What Sullivan faces
Each hazard against its own yardstick; meters run from low to high on that yardstick.
Wildfire
Earthquakes
Radon
Flood study
Hazard risk in Sullivan: B
For Sullivan, Risk will be the average of earthquakes and radon, with wildfire added only if it makes the average worse.
Its place: #59 of 254 in British Columbia and #1,520 of 2,589 Canadian towns.
How sure: Earthquake losses are a model’s expectation over many years, not a forecast for any one. The radon share rests on 70 home tests in the survey area, so a few homes move it. The burned-area record misses fires under about 10 ha and most grass and farm fires.
Little of the land around Sullivan has burned: 0% within 5 km, 0.2% within 25 km since 1986
Past fire around Sullivan’s homes, from the national burned-area record, with the fuel within 5 km.
The yearly burn rate around Sullivan is 0.004%, low beside 0.000% for the typical Canadian town.
The closest burn since 1986 lies 12 km from Sullivan’s homes, none within 5 km.
Close to Sullivan there is little to burn (3.5% forest fuel within 5 km), but 15% of the land within 25 km is forest.
Shares of land within 5 and 25 km of populated blocks: burned at least once in 1986–2025 (CWFIS burned-area composite), forest fuel and grass (fire behaviour fuel types, 2026, 250 m grid).
Burn rate a year, towns in British Columbia · highest of 255
Sullivan ranks 144th of the 255 towns in British Columbia for burn rate (0.004% a year), in the lower half; Oliver leads at 0.98%.
Each bar: the yearly average share of land within 25 km of a town’s homes that burned, 1986–2025 (CWFIS); the seven highest towns of 2,500 people or more.
Sullivan is in the low band with 92% of Canada’s 2,610 towns; 7.5% sit in moderate or higher.
Bands of the yearly burn rate: low under 0.05%, moderate under 0.25%, high under 1%, very high 1% or more; towns of 2,500 people or more.
Fire danger and active fires (CWFIS)
Canadian Wildland Fire Information System: National Burned Area Composite 1986–2025 and fire behaviour fuel types (2026), Natural Resources Canada. Measured within 25 km and 5 km of each populated dissemination area; past fire, not a forecast.
Sullivan is on the flood map inventory: 1 study, by City of Surrey
What Canada’s Flood Map Inventory lists for Sullivan: who studied flooding and where to see their maps.
City of Surrey studied flooding in an area that includes Sullivan (2015); open its map to see which streets lie in a flood zone.
| Study | By | Year | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Serpentine & Nicomekl River Climate Change Floodplain Review Phase 2 | City of Surrey | 2015 | final |
Towns with a flood study on file
Flood maps are common in British Columbia: 76% of towns have one, against 58% nationally, and Sullivan is among them.
NRCan Canada Flood Map Inventory: a study footprint touching the town’s boundary; towns of 2,500 people or more.
Listed, not scored: a flood study proves a map exists, not that Sullivan floods.
The inventory’s own caution (NRCan): “The Canada Flood Map (CFM) does not include every flood hazard map in Canada and may be incomplete or contain inaccuracies. It should not be relied upon as the official source of flood mapping information. Furthermore, if a map appears to be missing, this does not necessarily mean that the area has never been mapped. For the official version of a map, updated information, or confirmation of applicable regulations, please contact the local authority responsible for flood mapping.”
Natural Resources Canada, Canada Flood Map Inventory; links go to each study’s owner.
High seismic risk in Sullivan: $0.47 per $1,000 of buildings a year
Expected yearly building losses from earthquakes, from Natural Resources Canada’s model.
Roughly 15.7 times the typical $0.030: Sullivan’s $0.47 marks real seismic exposure.
Sullivan doesn’t get its own earthquake risk figures; the ones here come from the city of Surrey.
Shaking damage a year per $1,000 of building value
At $0.47, Sullivan is above the typical town in British Columbia ($0.36); Duncan has the most at $1.33.
NRCan seismic risk model (2022): mean yearly building loss per $1,000 of value; medians of towns of 2,500 people or more.
Only 1.6% of Canada’s 2,611 towns expect more shaking damage than Sullivan.
Each column: the share of Canada’s towns of 2,500 people or more in that range of yearly loss per $1,000 (NRCan, 2022).
Only shaking damage to buildings in Sullivan is counted; landslides, liquefaction, tsunami and fire after a quake aren’t.
Natural Resources Canada, Canada’s Seismic Risk Model (2022), by census subdivision (2016 boundaries; a few 2021 subdivisions take their residents’ mean).
Little radon around Sullivan: 0% of area homes over the guideline
Long-term radon tests in homes across the survey area, against Health Canada’s guideline.
A lower share than most: 0% of tested homes around Sullivan, the typical Canadian town 6.6%.
Tested homes over 200 Bq/m³
Over 600 Bq/m³
Sullivan’s area, at 0%, is below the median in British Columbia (1.8%).
Health Canada radon survey (2009–2011), by 2007 health region; medians of towns of 2,500 people or more.
Under 5% puts Sullivan with 37% of Canada’s 2,611 towns; 63% have more high tests.
Each bar: the share of Canada’s towns of 2,500 people or more whose survey area had that share of tests over 200 Bq/m³.
A low area share in Sullivan doesn’t clear a house, nor does a high one condemn it: test.
Health Canada, Cross-Canada Survey of Radon Concentrations in Homes (2009–2011). · Area behind the radon tests figures: the Fraser South health region
Where to get warnings in Sullivan
Alerts for Sullivan come from Environment and Climate Change Canada and, for emergencies, Alert Ready.
| Alert | What it means |
|---|---|
| Warning | Severe weather is happening or about to: act now. |
| Watch | Conditions favour severe weather: be ready. |
| Advisory | Weather that is less severe but could disrupt the day. |
| Special weather statement | Unusual weather worth knowing about. |
| Special air quality statement | Poor air, often wildfire smoke. |
Fire danger and active fires near Sullivan are mapped daily by the Canadian Wildland Fire Information System; evacuation orders come from the municipality or province.
Weather alerts (ECCC) · Alert Ready · Fire danger and active fires (CWFIS)
How Sullivan’s neighbours compare on hazards
Wildfire band, earthquake risk, radon and flood studies for each place nearby.
| Town | Wildfire | Quake $/1,000 | Radon | Flood study |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sullivan | Low | $0.47 | 0% | Yes |
| Panorama Ridge 36,473 · 2.7 km | Low | $0.47 | 0% | Yes |
| Newton 51,222 · 3.1 km | Low | $0.47 | 0% | Yes |
| Fleetwood 63,957 · 4.0 km | Low | $0.47 | 0% | Yes |
| Surrey Centre 16,482 · 4.4 km | Low | $0.47 | 0% | Yes |
| Colebrook 3,617 · 4.8 km | Low | $0.47 | 0% | Yes |
| Strawberry Hill 37,037 · 5.1 km | Low | $0.47 | 0% | None listed |
The neighbour with the most fire is Newton (low), still no more than Sullivan (low).
Radon is the survey area’s figure, so neighbours in one area share it.
Get ready for what Sullivan faces
Practical steps for Sullivan’s hazards, most pressing first.
- Test for three months in winter.
- Over 200 Bq/m³: fix it.
- Kits are cheap; pros test too.
- Never drive through floodwater.
- Move papers and medicines upstairs.
- Ask whether your street is mapped.
- Drop, cover and hold on.
- Strap the water heater down.
- Keep 72 hours of supplies.
- Has it had a radon test?
- Check the address on the flood map.
- Are flood and wildfire insured?
- Is earthquake cover included?
What this data can and can’t tell you
- Radon is a survey. About 14,000 homes were tested across Canada in 2009–2011, and the share over the guideline for Sullivan is its health region’s, the survey’s design unit.
- Earthquakes are modelled. The earthquake figure is an expected loss, not a forecast, worked out by NRCan for each census subdivision, Sullivan’s included.
- Flood studies aren’t flood zones. NRCan’s inventory says where flood mapping exists, not where water goes; the map’s owner is the authority for Sullivan.
- Wildfire counts one way. Burned land within 25 km of where people live, averaged over 1986–2025 and checked for fuel near homes, is the measure; it looks back, not ahead, and only ever counts against Sullivan.
Questions about flooding and hazards in Sullivan
How is Sullivan’s Hazard risk Grade worked out?
Sullivan’s Hazard risk grade is B, built on earthquakes and radon with a one-sided wildfire input.
Is Sullivan at risk of wildfire?
Some, but Sullivan’s low band (0.2% of nearby land burned since 1986, latest 2022) is short of the level that counts.
Does Sullivan flood?
There is flood mapping for Sullivan on the national inventory, each study linked to its owner’s map, none of them graded.
Is radon a problem in Sullivan?
The area’s survey found 0% of 70 tested homes above Health Canada’s guideline, so a three-month test is worth doing in Sullivan.
How big is the earthquake risk in Sullivan?
In NRCan’s seismic model, Sullivan’s buildings lose $0.47 per $1,000 of value in an average year.
Seismic risk: Natural Resources Canada. Radon: Health Canada. Wildfire: Canadian Wildland Fire Information System. Flood studies: Natural Resources Canada, Canada Flood Map Inventory. Contains information licensed under the Open Government Licence – Canada.
Sources: NRCan, Canada’s Seismic Risk Model 2022 · Health Canada, Cross-Canada Survey of Radon Concentrations in Homes · CWFIS, National Burned Area Composite and FBP fuel types · NRCan, Canada Flood Map Inventory. Under the Statistics Canada Open Licence.
Adapted from Statistics Canada (Census of Population 2021, population estimates 2025, 2021 census boundaries) under the Statistics Canada Open Licence; this does not constitute an endorsement by Statistics Canada. Neighbourhood names in some cities © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL).