Photo: Peter Vaitkunas · Public domainSt. Paul’s hazards at a glance: a low wildfire record and 9.6% of area homes over the radon guideline
Wildfire barely registers for St. Paul, at 0% of the land within 25 km since 1986 (0.001% a year). Shaking is less of a worry than in most places, at $0.006 a year per $1,000 of building value ($0.030 typical). St. Paul grades A− for hazard risk, with wildfire counted against it.
What stands out about St. Paul’s hazards
Four national sources, each read for St. Paul: earthquakes, radon, past fires and flood studies.
What St. Paul faces
Each hazard against its own yardstick; meters run from low to high on that yardstick.
Wildfire
Earthquakes
Radon
Flood study
Hazard risk in St. Paul: A−
Risk averages earthquakes and radon; wildfire joins only where it pulls the average down, so a town like St. Paul with little fire nearby would get no credit for it.
Its place: #247 of 474 in Alberta and #671 of 2,589 Canadian towns.
How sure: The seismic figure is a long-run average from NRCan’s model, not a prediction. Small fires and grass fires are largely missing from the national burned-area record.
Wildfire is rare near St. Paul: 0% of the land within 25 km burned since 1986, 0% within 5 km
Past fire around St. Paul’s homes, from the national burned-area record, with the fuel within 5 km.
St. Paul burns at 0.001% a year, low against 0.000% for the typical Canadian town.
St. Paul’s homes have had no fire within 5 km since 1986; the closest was 24 km away.
Forest makes up 0.5% of the land within 5 km of St. Paul and 0.7% within 25 km, little for a forest fire to run through.
Shares of land within 5 and 25 km of populated blocks: burned at least once in 1986–2025 (CWFIS burned-area composite), forest fuel and grass (fire behaviour fuel types, 2026, 250 m grid).
Burn rate a year, towns in Alberta · highest of 478
Wainwright burns fastest in Alberta at 1.43% a year; St. Paul, at 0.001%, ranks 79th of 478.
Each bar: the yearly average share of land within 25 km of a town’s homes that burned, 1986–2025 (CWFIS); the seven highest towns of 2,500 people or more.
Beside 2,610 Canadian towns, St. Paul reads low, with 92% of them; only 7.5% rank higher.
Bands of the yearly burn rate: low under 0.05%, moderate under 0.25%, high under 1%, very high 1% or more; towns of 2,500 people or more.
Fire danger and active fires (CWFIS)
Canadian Wildland Fire Information System: National Burned Area Composite 1986–2025 and fire behaviour fuel types (2026), Natural Resources Canada. Measured within 25 km and 5 km of each populated dissemination area; past fire, not a forecast.
The flood map inventory lists nothing for St. Paul
What Canada’s Flood Map Inventory lists for St. Paul: who studied flooding and where to see their maps.
NRCan’s inventory is silent on St. Paul, so any flood map would be the municipality’s own.
Towns with a flood study on file
Only 46% of towns in Alberta have a flood study, short of Canada’s 58%, and St. Paul is not among them.
NRCan Canada Flood Map Inventory: a study footprint touching the town’s boundary; towns of 2,500 people or more.
Listed, not scored: a flood study proves a map exists, not that St. Paul floods.
The inventory’s own caution (NRCan): “The Canada Flood Map (CFM) does not include every flood hazard map in Canada and may be incomplete or contain inaccuracies. It should not be relied upon as the official source of flood mapping information. Furthermore, if a map appears to be missing, this does not necessarily mean that the area has never been mapped. For the official version of a map, updated information, or confirmation of applicable regulations, please contact the local authority responsible for flood mapping.”
Low seismic risk in St. Paul: $0.006 per $1,000 of buildings a year
Expected yearly building losses from earthquakes, from Natural Resources Canada’s model.
0.2 times the typical $0.030: St. Paul’s $0.006 is low for Canada.
Shaking damage a year per $1,000 of building value
Below the middle in Alberta: St. Paul’s $0.006 against a median of $0.013; Black Diamond has $0.048.
NRCan seismic risk model (2022): mean yearly building loss per $1,000 of value; medians of towns of 2,500 people or more.
St. Paul is in the lower part of Canada’s range for earthquake risk; 88% of the 2,611 towns are higher.
Each column: the share of Canada’s towns of 2,500 people or more in that range of yearly loss per $1,000 (NRCan, 2022).
The loss is to St. Paul’s buildings alone, from ground shaking; infrastructure and secondary hazards are left out.
Natural Resources Canada, Canada’s Seismic Risk Model (2022), by census subdivision (2016 boundaries; a few 2021 subdivisions take their residents’ mean).
Radon about average around St. Paul: 9.6% over the guideline
Long-term radon tests in homes across the survey area, against Health Canada’s guideline.
Near the middle for radon: St. Paul’s area 9.6%, the typical Canadian town 6.6%. For radon tests, the only official count covers all of the Aspen Regional Health Authority, St. Paul included.
Tested homes over 200 Bq/m³
Over 600 Bq/m³
St. Paul’s area, at 9.6%, is above the median in Alberta (7.5%), and 0.5% of its tests passed 600 Bq/m³.
Health Canada radon survey (2009–2011), by 2007 health region; medians of towns of 2,500 people or more.
St. Paul is in the 5–10% band with 37% of Canada’s 2,611 towns; 26% have more.
Each bar: the share of Canada’s towns of 2,500 people or more whose survey area had that share of tests over 200 Bq/m³.
The share describes the area, not a house: in St. Paul as anywhere, test to be sure.
Health Canada, Cross-Canada Survey of Radon Concentrations in Homes (2009–2011).
Weather and fire alerts for St. Paul
Alerts for St. Paul come from Environment and Climate Change Canada and, for emergencies, Alert Ready.
| Alert | What it means |
|---|---|
| Warning | Severe weather is happening or about to: act now. |
| Watch | Conditions favour severe weather: be ready. |
| Advisory | Weather that is less severe but could disrupt the day. |
| Special weather statement | Unusual weather worth knowing about. |
| Special air quality statement | Poor air, often wildfire smoke. |
Alert Ready carries evacuation orders for St. Paul to phones; CWFIS shows the day’s fire danger.
Weather alerts (ECCC) · Alert Ready · Fire danger and active fires (CWFIS)
How St. Paul’s neighbours compare on hazards
Wildfire band, earthquake risk, radon and flood studies for each place nearby.
| Town | Wildfire | Quake $/1,000 | Radon | Flood study |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| St. Paul | Low | $0.006 | 9.6% | None listed |
| St. Paul County No. 19 6,462 · 10 km | Low | $0.004 | 9.6% | None listed |
St. Paul County No. 19 burns a little more than St. Paul, in the same low band (low here).
Radon is the survey area’s figure, so neighbours in one area share it.
Get ready for what St. Paul faces
What to do about the hazards St. Paul faces, and what to ask before you buy.
- Test for three months in winter.
- Over 200 Bq/m³: fix it.
- Kits are cheap; pros test too.
- Never drive through floodwater.
- Move papers and medicines upstairs.
- Ask whether your street is mapped.
- Clear needles and wood nearby.
- Keep a grab-and-go bag ready.
- In smoke, stay in; filter air.
- Has it had a radon test?
- Ask the municipality for flood maps.
- Are flood and wildfire insured?
What this data can and can’t tell you
- Wildfire counts one way. The wildfire figure is the share of land within 25 km of St. Paul’s homes burned each year from 1986 to 2025, past fire rather than a forecast, and it can only lower Risk.
- Radon is a survey. Radon figures pool the survey’s home tests by area: postal areas once their boundaries arrive, the 2007 health region around St. Paul until then.
- Earthquakes are modelled. Shaking damage is modelled from the ground, the buildings and the odds of each quake, and published for whole subdivisions such as St. Paul’s.
- Flood studies aren’t flood zones. Flood studies cover areas of every size, which is why the page lists them for St. Paul without grading them.
Questions about flooding and hazards in St. Paul
Is St. Paul at risk of wildfire?
Fire has reached 0% of the land around St. Paul since 1986 (last in 2009); at low, it neither helps nor hurts the grade.
How big is the earthquake risk in St. Paul?
NRCan’s model expects shaking to cost buildings in St. Paul $0.006 a year for every $1,000 of their value, on average over many years.
Does St. Paul flood?
With 0 studies on the inventory, St. Paul’s flood risk is unmapped nationally; check with the municipality before buying.
How is St. Paul’s Hazard risk Grade worked out?
St. Paul grades A− for hazard risk, from earthquakes and radon, with wildfire counted only where it lowers the grade.
Is radon a problem in St. Paul?
Around St. Paul, 219 survey homes were tested and 9.6% came in over 200 Bq/m³, a guide to the area, not to any one home.
Seismic risk: Natural Resources Canada. Radon: Health Canada. Wildfire: Canadian Wildland Fire Information System. Flood studies: Natural Resources Canada, Canada Flood Map Inventory. Contains information licensed under the Open Government Licence – Canada.
Sources: NRCan, Canada’s Seismic Risk Model 2022 · Health Canada, Cross-Canada Survey of Radon Concentrations in Homes · CWFIS, National Burned Area Composite and FBP fuel types · NRCan, Canada Flood Map Inventory. Under the Statistics Canada Open Licence.
Adapted from Statistics Canada (Census of Population 2021, population estimates 2025, 2021 census boundaries) under the Statistics Canada Open Licence; this does not constitute an endorsement by Statistics Canada. Neighbourhood names in some cities © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL).