Photo: Amqui · CC BY-SA 4.0Hazard risk in Provost No. 52 is higher than in 95% of Canadian towns
Wildfire is a real hazard for Provost No. 52: 4.1% of the land within 25 km has burned since 1986, 0.29% a year, in the high band. Earthquakes matter little: NRCan’s model puts building losses at $0.005 a year per $1,000 of value, against $0.030 for the typical town. In Health Canada’s survey, 5.2% of homes tested in Provost No. 52’s area exceeded 200 Bq/m³, close to the typical 6.6%. Provost No. 52 grades D− for hazard risk, with wildfire counted against it.
What stands out about Provost No. 52’s hazards
Four national sources, each read for Provost No. 52: earthquakes, radon, past fires and flood studies.
What Provost No. 52 faces
Each hazard against its own yardstick; meters run from low to high on that yardstick.
Wildfire
Earthquakes
Radon
Flood study
Hazard risk in Provost No. 52: D−
Earthquake risk and radon make Provost No. 52’s grade; wildfire can only lower it, never raise it, and flood studies are listed but not scored.
How sure: Earthquake losses are a model’s expectation over many years, not a forecast for any one. Small fires and grass fires are largely missing from the national burned-area record.
Fire country: 4.1% of the land within 25 km of Provost No. 52 has burned since 1986, 0% within 5 km
Fires mapped since 1986 around where Provost No. 52’s residents live, and the fuel next to their homes.
The yearly burn rate around Provost No. 52 is 0.29%, against 0.000% for the typical Canadian town: the high band.
The 5 km ring around Provost No. 52’s homes is clear of burns since 1986, the nearest 10 km out.
Forest fuel is scarce around Provost No. 52: 0% of the land within 5 km, 0% within 25 km.
Shares of land within 5 and 25 km of populated blocks: burned at least once in 1986–2025 (CWFIS burned-area composite), forest fuel and grass (fire behaviour fuel types, 2026, 250 m grid).
Burn rate a year, towns in Alberta · highest of 479
Wainwright burns fastest in Alberta at 1.43% a year; Provost No. 52, at 0.29%, ranks 10th of 479.
Each bar: the yearly average share of land within 25 km of a town’s homes that burned, 1986–2025 (CWFIS); the seven highest towns of 2,500 people or more.
Just 1.9% of Canada’s 2,610 towns burn fast enough for the high band where Provost No. 52 sits; 0.2% burn faster.
Bands of the yearly burn rate: low under 0.05%, moderate under 0.25%, high under 1%, very high 1% or more; towns of 2,500 people or more.
Fire danger and active fires (CWFIS)
Canadian Wildland Fire Information System: National Burned Area Composite 1986–2025 and fire behaviour fuel types (2026), Natural Resources Canada. Measured within 25 km and 5 km of each populated dissemination area; past fire, not a forecast.
No flood study is listed for Provost No. 52
Flood studies whose area touches Provost No. 52, from NRCan’s inventory, each linked to its owner.
An empty entry for Provost No. 52 on the inventory isn’t proof of safety; ask locally for flood maps.
Towns with a flood study on file
Mapping in Alberta reaches 46% of towns, below the 58% across Canada, and not Provost No. 52.
NRCan Canada Flood Map Inventory: a study footprint touching the town’s boundary; towns of 2,500 people or more.
The grade leaves flood out, since a study area says nothing about how many of Provost No. 52’s homes are at risk.
The inventory’s own caution (NRCan): “The Canada Flood Map (CFM) does not include every flood hazard map in Canada and may be incomplete or contain inaccuracies. It should not be relied upon as the official source of flood mapping information. Furthermore, if a map appears to be missing, this does not necessarily mean that the area has never been mapped. For the official version of a map, updated information, or confirmation of applicable regulations, please contact the local authority responsible for flood mapping.”
Little shaking expected in Provost No. 52: $0.005 a year per $1,000
NRCan’s seismic risk model: the damage shaking is expected to do to buildings each year, on average over many years.
At $0.005 per $1,000, Provost No. 52 carries 0.2 times the typical Canadian town’s earthquake risk ($0.030): low.
Shaking damage a year per $1,000 of building value
Provost No. 52’s $0.005 sits under the median in Alberta, $0.013, and well under Black Diamond’s $0.048.
NRCan seismic risk model (2022): mean yearly building loss per $1,000 of value; medians of towns of 2,500 people or more.
At the bottom of Canada’s range, Provost No. 52 has 96% of the 2,611 towns above it.
Each column: the share of Canada’s towns of 2,500 people or more in that range of yearly loss per $1,000 (NRCan, 2022).
The loss is to Provost No. 52’s buildings alone, from ground shaking; infrastructure and secondary hazards are left out.
Natural Resources Canada, Canada’s Seismic Risk Model (2022), by census subdivision (2016 boundaries; a few 2021 subdivisions take their residents’ mean).
Radon about average around Provost No. 52: 5.2% over the guideline
Health Canada’s survey of long-term home tests: the share above the 200 Bq/m³ guideline. · The radon tests numbers here cover the East Central Health
5.2% of tested homes around Provost No. 52 were over the guideline, much like the typical Canadian town at 6.6%.
Tested homes over 200 Bq/m³
Over 600 Bq/m³
Fewer homes top the guideline around Provost No. 52 (5.2%) than in the typical town in Alberta (7.5%), yet 1% went over 600.
Health Canada radon survey (2009–2011), by 2007 health region; medians of towns of 2,500 people or more.
Radon tops the guideline in a modest share of homes around Provost No. 52, a band holding 37% of Canada’s 2,611 towns; 26% rank above.
Each bar: the share of Canada’s towns of 2,500 people or more whose survey area had that share of tests over 200 Bq/m³.
One home in Provost No. 52 can be high while next door is low; a three-month test settles it.
Health Canada, Cross-Canada Survey of Radon Concentrations in Homes (2009–2011).
Weather and fire alerts for Provost No. 52
Environment and Climate Change Canada issues the weather alerts for Provost No. 52; Alert Ready carries the urgent ones to phones, radio and TV.
| Alert | What it means |
|---|---|
| Warning | Severe weather is happening or about to: act now. |
| Watch | Conditions favour severe weather: be ready. |
| Advisory | Weather that is less severe but could disrupt the day. |
| Special weather statement | Unusual weather worth knowing about. |
| Special air quality statement | Poor air, often wildfire smoke. |
In fire season, check CWFIS for danger and active fires around Provost No. 52, and listen to local authorities for orders.
Weather alerts (ECCC) · Alert Ready · Fire danger and active fires (CWFIS)
How Provost No. 52’s neighbours compare on hazards
The same four hazards for the places next door.
| Town | Wildfire | Quake $/1,000 | Radon | Flood study |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Provost No. 52 | High | $0.005 | 5.2% | None listed |
| Provost 1,875 · 17 km | Low | $0.004 | 5.2% | None listed |
Nowhere around Provost No. 52 burns more: Provost, the closest rival, is low to its high.
Radon is the survey area’s figure, so neighbours in one area share it.
Get ready for what Provost No. 52 faces
Practical steps for Provost No. 52’s hazards, most pressing first.
- Clear needles and wood nearby.
- Keep a grab-and-go bag ready.
- In smoke, stay in; filter air.
- Test for three months in winter.
- Over 200 Bq/m³: fix it.
- Kits are cheap; pros test too.
- Never drive through floodwater.
- Move papers and medicines upstairs.
- Ask whether your street is mapped.
- Has it had a radon test?
- Ask the municipality for flood maps.
- How close is the forest edge?
- Are flood and wildfire insured?
What this data can and can’t tell you
- Radon is a survey. Health Canada’s survey tested some 14,000 homes over three months; until postal-area boundaries are loaded, Provost No. 52 takes its 2007 health region’s share.
- Flood studies aren’t flood zones. The flood inventory points to maps; it is incomplete and not the official source, so ask the municipality about any street in Provost No. 52.
- Earthquakes are modelled. NRCan models what earthquakes would cost buildings each year on average, subdivision by subdivision; Provost No. 52’s figure is its subdivision’s.
- Wildfire counts one way. Wildfire is read from the national burned-area record around Provost No. 52’s homes since 1986, a history of fire that may lower Risk but never raises it.
Questions about flooding and hazards in Provost No. 52
Does Provost No. 52 flood?
No study on Canada’s Flood Map Inventory covers Provost No. 52 (0), which doesn’t mean it has never been mapped, so ask the municipality.
Is Provost No. 52 at risk of wildfire?
It is: 4.1% of the land within 25 km of Provost No. 52 has burned since 1986, the latest in 2025, which puts it in the high band that lowers Risk.
How is Provost No. 52’s Hazard risk Grade worked out?
Hazard risk gives Provost No. 52 D−, weighing earthquakes and radon and counting wildfire only against it.
How big is the earthquake risk in Provost No. 52?
About $0.005 a year per $1,000 of building value, NRCan’s long-run expectation for Provost No. 52.
Is radon a problem in Provost No. 52?
5.2% of the 97 homes Health Canada tested around Provost No. 52 topped the guideline; your own house needs its own test.
Seismic risk: Natural Resources Canada. Radon: Health Canada. Wildfire: Canadian Wildland Fire Information System. Flood studies: Natural Resources Canada, Canada Flood Map Inventory. Contains information licensed under the Open Government Licence – Canada.
Sources: NRCan, Canada’s Seismic Risk Model 2022 · Health Canada, Cross-Canada Survey of Radon Concentrations in Homes · CWFIS, National Burned Area Composite and FBP fuel types · NRCan, Canada Flood Map Inventory. Under the Statistics Canada Open Licence.
Adapted from Statistics Canada (Census of Population 2021, population estimates 2025, 2021 census boundaries) under the Statistics Canada Open Licence; this does not constitute an endorsement by Statistics Canada. Neighbourhood names in some cities © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL).