Photo: jasonwoodhead23 · CC BY 2.0On hazards, Fort McMurray comes out behind almost every Canadian town
At 1.11% of the land burned each year (42% within 25 km since 1986), Fort McMurray is in the very high wildfire band. Earthquakes matter little: NRCan’s model puts building losses at $0.003 a year per $1,000 of value, against $0.030 for the typical town. Fewer homes than usual carry radon here, 0.7% over the guideline where the typical town has 6.6%. Fort McMurray grades D− for hazard risk, with wildfire counted against it.
What stands out about Fort McMurray’s hazards
For Fort McMurray, from NRCan’s seismic model, Health Canada’s radon survey, the national burned-area record and the flood map inventory.
What Fort McMurray faces
Each hazard against its own yardstick; meters run from low to high on that yardstick.
Wildfire
Earthquakes
Radon
Flood study
Fort McMurray grades D− for hazard risk
Earthquake risk and radon make Fort McMurray’s grade; wildfire can only lower it, never raise it, and flood studies are listed but not scored.
Its place: #2,584 of 2,589 Canadian towns.
How sure: The seismic figure is a long-run average from NRCan’s model, not a prediction. The burned-area record misses fires under about 10 ha and most grass and farm fires.
Fire country: 42% of the land within 25 km of Fort McMurray has burned since 1986, 66% within 5 km
Fires mapped since 1986 around where Fort McMurray’s residents live, and the fuel next to their homes.
The yearly burn rate around Fort McMurray is 1.11%, against 0.000% for the typical Canadian town: the very high band.
Forest fuel covers 33% of the land close to Fort McMurray and 48% across 25 km.
Shares of land within 5 and 25 km of populated blocks: burned at least once in 1986–2025 (CWFIS burned-area composite), forest fuel and grass (fire behaviour fuel types, 2026, 250 m grid).
Burn rate a year, towns in Alberta · highest of 478
Fort McMurray ranks 2nd of the 478 towns in Alberta for burn rate, at 1.11% a year; Wainwright leads with 1.43%.
Each bar: the yearly average share of land within 25 km of a town’s homes that burned, 1986–2025 (CWFIS); the seven highest towns of 2,500 people or more.
Few places in Canada burn like the land around Fort McMurray: the very high band holds 0.2% of the 2,610 towns.
Bands of the yearly burn rate: low under 0.05%, moderate under 0.25%, high under 1%, very high 1% or more; towns of 2,500 people or more.
Fire danger and active fires (CWFIS)
Canadian Wildland Fire Information System: National Burned Area Composite 1986–2025 and fire behaviour fuel types (2026), Natural Resources Canada. Measured within 25 km and 5 km of each populated dissemination area; past fire, not a forecast.
Fort McMurray is on the flood map inventory: 1 study, by Government of Alberta
Flood studies whose area touches Fort McMurray, from NRCan’s inventory, each linked to its owner.
For Fort McMurray the inventory points to Government of Alberta’s 2025 study, whose map is the one to check.
| Study | By | Year | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fort McMurray Flood Study | Government of Alberta | 2025 | final |
Towns with a flood study on file
Its flood study sets Fort McMurray apart in Alberta, where 46% of towns have one (Canada: 58%).
NRCan Canada Flood Map Inventory: a study footprint touching the town’s boundary; towns of 2,500 people or more.
Flood studies don’t enter the grade; they are listed so you can open the official map for Fort McMurray.
The inventory’s own caution (NRCan): “The Canada Flood Map (CFM) does not include every flood hazard map in Canada and may be incomplete or contain inaccuracies. It should not be relied upon as the official source of flood mapping information. Furthermore, if a map appears to be missing, this does not necessarily mean that the area has never been mapped. For the official version of a map, updated information, or confirmation of applicable regulations, please contact the local authority responsible for flood mapping.”
Natural Resources Canada, Canada Flood Map Inventory; links go to each study’s owner.
Low seismic risk in Fort McMurray: $0.003 per $1,000 of buildings a year
NRCan’s seismic risk model: the damage shaking is expected to do to buildings each year, on average over many years.
Shaking costs the typical town $0.030 a year; in Fort McMurray it is only $0.003, 0.1 times as much.
Shaking damage a year per $1,000 of building value
Below the middle in Alberta: Fort McMurray’s $0.003 against a median of $0.013; Black Diamond has $0.048.
NRCan seismic risk model (2022): mean yearly building loss per $1,000 of value; medians of towns of 2,500 people or more.
At the bottom of Canada’s range, Fort McMurray has 99% of the 2,611 towns above it.
Each column: the share of Canada’s towns of 2,500 people or more in that range of yearly loss per $1,000 (NRCan, 2022).
What a quake does after the shaking, fire, landslides, tsunami, falls outside NRCan’s figure for Fort McMurray.
Natural Resources Canada, Canada’s Seismic Risk Model (2022), by census subdivision (2016 boundaries; a few 2021 subdivisions take their residents’ mean).
0.7% of homes tested around Fort McMurray are over the radon guideline
Health Canada’s survey of long-term home tests: the share above the 200 Bq/m³ guideline.
Fort McMurray’s survey area reads 0.7% over the guideline, under the typical Canadian town’s 6.6%. Nobody publishes radon tests for Fort McMurray alone, so this card uses the figure for the Northern Lights Health Region.
Tested homes over 200 Bq/m³
Over 600 Bq/m³
The median in Alberta is 7.5% over 200 Bq/m³; around Fort McMurray it is 0.7%.
Health Canada radon survey (2009–2011), by 2007 health region; medians of towns of 2,500 people or more.
63% of Canada’s 2,611 towns have a higher share of homes over 200 Bq/m³ than Fort McMurray’s band, which holds 37%.
Each bar: the share of Canada’s towns of 2,500 people or more whose survey area had that share of tests over 200 Bq/m³.
Health Canada advises testing every home, Fort McMurray’s included, whatever the area’s figure.
Health Canada, Cross-Canada Survey of Radon Concentrations in Homes (2009–2011).
Where to get warnings in Fort McMurray
Alerts for Fort McMurray come from Environment and Climate Change Canada and, for emergencies, Alert Ready.
| Alert | What it means |
|---|---|
| Warning | Severe weather is happening or about to: act now. |
| Watch | Conditions favour severe weather: be ready. |
| Advisory | Weather that is less severe but could disrupt the day. |
| Special weather statement | Unusual weather worth knowing about. |
| Special air quality statement | Poor air, often wildfire smoke. |
Alert Ready carries evacuation orders for Fort McMurray to phones; CWFIS shows the day’s fire danger.
Weather alerts (ECCC) · Alert Ready · Fire danger and active fires (CWFIS)
Get ready for what Fort McMurray faces
Practical steps for Fort McMurray’s hazards, most pressing first.
- Clear needles and wood nearby.
- Keep a grab-and-go bag ready.
- In smoke, stay in; filter air.
- Test for three months in winter.
- Over 200 Bq/m³: fix it.
- Kits are cheap; pros test too.
- Never drive through floodwater.
- Move papers and medicines upstairs.
- Ask whether your street is mapped.
- Has it had a radon test?
- Check the address on the flood map.
- How close is the forest edge?
- Are flood and wildfire insured?
What this data can and can’t tell you
- Wildfire counts one way. Burned land within 25 km of where people live, averaged over 1986–2025 and checked for fuel near homes, is the measure; it looks back, not ahead, and only ever counts against Fort McMurray.
- Flood studies aren’t flood zones. A study’s area can be a whole watershed or province, so being on the inventory says a map exists, not that a home in Fort McMurray floods.
- Earthquakes are modelled. The earthquake figure is an expected loss, not a forecast, worked out by NRCan for each census subdivision, Fort McMurray’s included.
- Radon is a survey. The radon share comes from about 14,000 long-term home tests in 2009–2011, pooled for now by the 2007 health region Fort McMurray sits in.
Questions about flooding and hazards in Fort McMurray
Does Fort McMurray flood?
Fort McMurray’s area has been studied for flooding, and the owner’s map shows which streets lie in a zone; the grade leaves flood out.
How big is the earthquake risk in Fort McMurray?
About $0.003 a year per $1,000 of building value, NRCan’s long-run expectation for Fort McMurray.
How is Fort McMurray’s Hazard risk Grade worked out?
Fort McMurray’s Hazard risk grade is D−, built on earthquakes and radon with a one-sided wildfire input.
Is radon a problem in Fort McMurray?
The area’s survey found 0.7% of 144 tested homes above Health Canada’s guideline, so a three-month test is worth doing in Fort McMurray.
Is Fort McMurray at risk of wildfire?
Wildfire is Fort McMurray’s main hazard, band very high: 42% of the land within 25 km burned between 1986 and 2025.
Seismic risk: Natural Resources Canada. Radon: Health Canada. Wildfire: Canadian Wildland Fire Information System. Flood studies: Natural Resources Canada, Canada Flood Map Inventory. Contains information licensed under the Open Government Licence – Canada.
Sources: NRCan, Canada’s Seismic Risk Model 2022 · Health Canada, Cross-Canada Survey of Radon Concentrations in Homes · CWFIS, National Burned Area Composite and FBP fuel types · NRCan, Canada Flood Map Inventory. Under the Statistics Canada Open Licence.
Adapted from Statistics Canada (Census of Population 2021, population estimates 2025, 2021 census boundaries) under the Statistics Canada Open Licence; this does not constitute an endorsement by Statistics Canada. Neighbourhood names in some cities © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL).