Hazard risk in Duchess is lower than in 87% of Canadian towns
Wildfire barely registers for Duchess, at 0% of the land within 25 km since 1986 (0.000% a year). Earthquakes matter little: NRCan’s model puts building losses at $0.015 a year per $1,000 of value, against $0.030 for the typical town. Radon around Duchess is ordinary for Canada: 4.4% of tested homes over the guideline (6.6% typical). Hazard risk gives Duchess a grade of A, from earthquakes and radon alone.
What stands out about Duchess’s hazards
Four national sources, each read for Duchess: earthquakes, radon, past fires and flood studies.
What Duchess faces
Each hazard against its own yardstick; meters run from low to high on that yardstick.
Wildfire
Earthquakes
Radon
Flood study
Duchess grades A for hazard risk
Earthquake risk and radon make Duchess’ grade; wildfire can only lower it, never raise it, and flood studies are listed but not scored.
How sure: The seismic figure is a long-run average from NRCan’s model, not a prediction. Small fires and grass fires are largely missing from the national burned-area record.
Little of the land around Duchess has burned: 0% within 5 km, 0% within 25 km since 1986
Past fire around Duchess’ homes, from the national burned-area record, with the fuel within 5 km.
At 0.000% of the land a year, Duchess’ burn rate is in the low band; the typical Canadian town sees 0.000%.
Only 0% of the land within 25 km of Duchess is forest fuel, and 0% close in.
Shares of land within 5 and 25 km of populated blocks: burned at least once in 1986–2025 (CWFIS burned-area composite), forest fuel and grass (fire behaviour fuel types, 2026, 250 m grid).
Burn rate a year, towns in Alberta · highest of 479
Wainwright has the highest burn rate in Alberta, 1.43% a year; around Duchess, as around 387 of the 479 towns, it rounds to zero.
Each bar: the yearly average share of land within 25 km of a town’s homes that burned, 1986–2025 (CWFIS); the seven highest towns of 2,500 people or more.
Only 7.5% of Canada’s 2,610 towns are above the low band, which holds 92%; Duchess, at a rounded zero, is far from them.
Bands of the yearly burn rate: low under 0.05%, moderate under 0.25%, high under 1%, very high 1% or more; towns of 2,500 people or more.
Fire danger and active fires (CWFIS)
Canadian Wildland Fire Information System: National Burned Area Composite 1986–2025 and fire behaviour fuel types (2026), Natural Resources Canada. Measured within 25 km and 5 km of each populated dissemination area; past fire, not a forecast.
The flood map inventory lists nothing for Duchess
What Canada’s Flood Map Inventory lists for Duchess: who studied flooding and where to see their maps.
An empty entry for Duchess on the inventory isn’t proof of safety; ask locally for flood maps.
Towns with a flood study on file
Flood maps are thinner in Alberta, 46% of towns against 58% nationally, and Duchess has none.
NRCan Canada Flood Map Inventory: a study footprint touching the town’s boundary; towns of 2,500 people or more.
Listed, not scored: a flood study proves a map exists, not that Duchess floods.
The inventory’s own caution (NRCan): “The Canada Flood Map (CFM) does not include every flood hazard map in Canada and may be incomplete or contain inaccuracies. It should not be relied upon as the official source of flood mapping information. Furthermore, if a map appears to be missing, this does not necessarily mean that the area has never been mapped. For the official version of a map, updated information, or confirmation of applicable regulations, please contact the local authority responsible for flood mapping.”
Earthquakes cost buildings in Duchess just $0.015 per $1,000 a year
Expected yearly building losses from earthquakes, from Natural Resources Canada’s model.
At $0.015 per $1,000, Duchess carries 0.5 times the typical Canadian town’s earthquake risk ($0.030): low.
Shaking damage a year per $1,000 of building value
Shaking damage around Duchess runs at $0.015 a year, near the $0.013 of the typical town in Alberta; Black Diamond has $0.048.
NRCan seismic risk model (2022): mean yearly building loss per $1,000 of value; medians of towns of 2,500 people or more.
Most of Canada’s 2,611 towns (72%) face more earthquake damage than Duchess.
Each column: the share of Canada’s towns of 2,500 people or more in that range of yearly loss per $1,000 (NRCan, 2022).
The loss is to Duchess’ buildings alone, from ground shaking; infrastructure and secondary hazards are left out.
Natural Resources Canada, Canada’s Seismic Risk Model (2022), by census subdivision (2016 boundaries; a few 2021 subdivisions take their residents’ mean).
4.4% of homes tested around Duchess are over the radon guideline
Long-term radon tests in homes across the survey area, against Health Canada’s guideline.
4.4% of tested homes around Duchess were over the guideline, much like the typical Canadian town at 6.6%.
Tested homes over 200 Bq/m³
Over 600 Bq/m³
Below the typical town in Alberta (7.5%) at 4.4%, the area around Duchess still had 2.2% of tests over 600 Bq/m³.
Health Canada radon survey (2009–2011), by 2007 health region; medians of towns of 2,500 people or more.
Under 5% puts Duchess with 37% of Canada’s 2,611 towns; 63% have more high tests.
Each bar: the share of Canada’s towns of 2,500 people or more whose survey area had that share of tests over 200 Bq/m³.
Basements, soil and how a house is sealed decide its radon, so in Duchess only a test can say.
Health Canada, Cross-Canada Survey of Radon Concentrations in Homes (2009–2011). · Radon tests: one figure for all of the Palliser Health Region
Weather and fire alerts for Duchess
Alerts for Duchess come from Environment and Climate Change Canada and, for emergencies, Alert Ready.
| Alert | What it means |
|---|---|
| Warning | Severe weather is happening or about to: act now. |
| Watch | Conditions favour severe weather: be ready. |
| Advisory | Weather that is less severe but could disrupt the day. |
| Special weather statement | Unusual weather worth knowing about. |
| Special air quality statement | Poor air, often wildfire smoke. |
Fire danger and active fires near Duchess are mapped daily by the Canadian Wildland Fire Information System; evacuation orders come from the municipality or province.
Weather alerts (ECCC) · Alert Ready · Fire danger and active fires (CWFIS)
How Duchess’ neighbours compare on hazards
Wildfire band, earthquake risk, radon and flood studies for each place nearby.
| Town | Wildfire | Quake $/1,000 | Radon | Flood study |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Duchess | Low | $0.015 | 4.4% | None listed |
| Newell County 7,846 · 17 km | Low | $0.016 | 4.4% | Yes |
| Brooks 17,537 · 18 km | Low | $0.016 | 4.4% | None listed |
Nowhere around Duchess burns more: Newell County, the closest rival, is low to its low.
Radon is the survey area’s figure, so neighbours in one area share it.
Get ready for what Duchess faces
Practical steps for Duchess’ hazards, most pressing first.
- Test for three months in winter.
- Over 200 Bq/m³: fix it.
- Kits are cheap; pros test too.
- Never drive through floodwater.
- Move papers and medicines upstairs.
- Ask whether your street is mapped.
- Clear needles and wood nearby.
- Keep a grab-and-go bag ready.
- In smoke, stay in; filter air.
- Has it had a radon test?
- Ask the municipality for flood maps.
- Are flood and wildfire insured?
What this data can and can’t tell you
- Radon is a survey. The radon share comes from about 14,000 long-term home tests in 2009–2011, pooled for now by the 2007 health region Duchess sits in.
- Wildfire counts one way. Wildfire is read from the national burned-area record around Duchess’ homes since 1986, a history of fire that may lower Risk but never raises it.
- Flood studies aren’t flood zones. A study’s area can be a whole watershed or province, so being on the inventory says a map exists, not that a home in Duchess floods.
- Earthquakes are modelled. NRCan models what earthquakes would cost buildings each year on average, subdivision by subdivision; Duchess’ figure is its subdivision’s.
Questions about flooding and hazards in Duchess
How is Duchess’s Hazard risk Grade worked out?
Duchess grades A for hazard risk, from earthquakes and radon, with wildfire counted only where it lowers the grade.
Is Duchess at risk of wildfire?
No meaningful wildfire history near Duchess: 0% of nearby land since 1986, band low.
How big is the earthquake risk in Duchess?
In NRCan’s seismic model, Duchess’ buildings lose $0.015 per $1,000 of value in an average year.
Does Duchess flood?
No study on Canada’s Flood Map Inventory covers Duchess (0), which doesn’t mean it has never been mapped, so ask the municipality.
Is radon a problem in Duchess?
4.4% of the 91 homes Health Canada tested around Duchess topped the guideline; your own house needs its own test.
Seismic risk: Natural Resources Canada. Radon: Health Canada. Wildfire: Canadian Wildland Fire Information System. Flood studies: Natural Resources Canada, Canada Flood Map Inventory. Contains information licensed under the Open Government Licence – Canada.
Sources: NRCan, Canada’s Seismic Risk Model 2022 · Health Canada, Cross-Canada Survey of Radon Concentrations in Homes · CWFIS, National Burned Area Composite and FBP fuel types · NRCan, Canada Flood Map Inventory. Under the Statistics Canada Open Licence.
Adapted from Statistics Canada (Census of Population 2021, population estimates 2025, 2021 census boundaries) under the Statistics Canada Open Licence; this does not constitute an endorsement by Statistics Canada. Neighbourhood names in some cities © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL).