Photo: Michael from Calgary, AB, Canada · CC BY 2.0Flood mapping exists for Patterson: 1 on record, latest by Government of Alberta
Wildfire is rare near Patterson: 0% of the land within 25 km has burned since 1986, a burn rate of 0.000% a year. Seismic risk in Patterson sits near the middle: $0.023 of expected damage per $1,000 of buildings a year, the typical town $0.030. Patterson’s survey area, 8.1% over the radon guideline, is close to the typical town’s 6.6%. Patterson grades B+ for hazard risk; wildfire is low here, so it earns no credit.
What stands out about Patterson’s hazards
Four national sources, each read for Patterson: earthquakes, radon, past fires and flood studies.
What Patterson faces
Each hazard against its own yardstick; meters run from low to high on that yardstick.
Wildfire
Earthquakes
Radon
Flood study
Patterson grades B+ for hazard risk
Earthquake risk and radon make Patterson’s grade; wildfire can only lower it, never raise it, and flood studies are listed but not scored.
Its place: #282 of 474 in Alberta and #1,102 of 2,589 Canadian towns.
How sure: The seismic figure is a long-run average from NRCan’s model, not a prediction. Small fires and grass fires are largely missing from the national burned-area record.
Little of the land around Patterson has burned: 0.1% within 5 km, 0% within 25 km since 1986
Past fire around Patterson’s homes, from the national burned-area record, with the fuel within 5 km.
Forty years of fire maps put Patterson at 0.000% a year, low next to the typical Canadian town’s 0.000%.
Little near Patterson’s homes can carry a forest fire; only 0.1% of the land within 5 km is forest fuel, and 2.3% within 25 km.
Shares of land within 5 and 25 km of populated blocks: burned at least once in 1986–2025 (CWFIS burned-area composite), forest fuel and grass (fire behaviour fuel types, 2026, 250 m grid).
Burn rate a year, towns in Alberta · highest of 478
Little or nothing burns around Patterson in a typical year; 386 of the 478 towns in Alberta share that, and Wainwright leads at 1.43%.
Each bar: the yearly average share of land within 25 km of a town’s homes that burned, 1986–2025 (CWFIS); the seven highest towns of 2,500 people or more.
The low band holds 92% of Canada’s 2,610 towns, and Patterson sits at its very bottom; only 7.5% are above it.
Bands of the yearly burn rate: low under 0.05%, moderate under 0.25%, high under 1%, very high 1% or more; towns of 2,500 people or more.
Fire danger and active fires (CWFIS)
Canadian Wildland Fire Information System: National Burned Area Composite 1986–2025 and fire behaviour fuel types (2026), Natural Resources Canada. Measured within 25 km and 5 km of each populated dissemination area; past fire, not a forecast.
Government of Alberta has mapped flooding for Patterson (1 study)
What Canada’s Flood Map Inventory lists for Patterson: who studied flooding and where to see their maps.
One study on the inventory touches Patterson, Government of Alberta’s from 2025, and its area can be large, so it says a map exists, not that the town floods.
| Study | By | Year | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bow and Elbow River Flood Study | Government of Alberta | 2025 | final |
Towns with a flood study on file
Its flood study sets Patterson apart in Alberta, where 46% of towns have one (Canada: 58%).
NRCan Canada Flood Map Inventory: a study footprint touching the town’s boundary; towns of 2,500 people or more.
Nothing here counts toward Risk; the studies are pointers to the maps their owners keep for Patterson.
The inventory’s own caution (NRCan): “The Canada Flood Map (CFM) does not include every flood hazard map in Canada and may be incomplete or contain inaccuracies. It should not be relied upon as the official source of flood mapping information. Furthermore, if a map appears to be missing, this does not necessarily mean that the area has never been mapped. For the official version of a map, updated information, or confirmation of applicable regulations, please contact the local authority responsible for flood mapping.”
Natural Resources Canada, Canada Flood Map Inventory; links go to each study’s owner.
Ordinary seismic risk in Patterson: $0.023 per $1,000 of buildings a year
Expected yearly building losses from earthquakes, from Natural Resources Canada’s model.
At $0.023 per $1,000, Patterson’s earthquake risk is about the typical Canadian town’s ($0.030; 0.8 times).
For earthquake risk, the only official count covers all of the city of Calgary, Patterson included.
Shaking damage a year per $1,000 of building value
Above the middle in Alberta: Patterson’s $0.023 against a median of $0.013, with Black Diamond highest at $0.048.
NRCan seismic risk model (2022): mean yearly building loss per $1,000 of value; medians of towns of 2,500 people or more.
Neither high nor low for Canada: 54% of the 2,611 towns expect more damage than Patterson.
Each column: the share of Canada’s towns of 2,500 people or more in that range of yearly loss per $1,000 (NRCan, 2022).
Roads, pipes and bridges aren’t in Patterson’s figure, nor landslides or tsunami: it is buildings and shaking.
Natural Resources Canada, Canada’s Seismic Risk Model (2022), by census subdivision (2016 boundaries; a few 2021 subdivisions take their residents’ mean).
8.1% of homes tested around Patterson are over the radon guideline
Long-term radon tests in homes across the survey area, against Health Canada’s guideline. · The radon tests numbers here cover the Calgary Health Region
The survey area of Patterson reads 8.1%, a shade from the typical Canadian town’s 6.6%.
Tested homes over 200 Bq/m³
Over 600 Bq/m³
The typical town in Alberta has 7.5% over 200 Bq/m³; Patterson’s area has 8.1%, much the same.
Health Canada radon survey (2009–2011), by 2007 health region; medians of towns of 2,500 people or more.
Radon tops the guideline in a modest share of homes around Patterson, a band holding 37% of Canada’s 2,611 towns; 26% rank above.
Each bar: the share of Canada’s towns of 2,500 people or more whose survey area had that share of tests over 200 Bq/m³.
One home in Patterson can be high while next door is low; a three-month test settles it.
Health Canada, Cross-Canada Survey of Radon Concentrations in Homes (2009–2011).
Weather and fire alerts for Patterson
Environment and Climate Change Canada issues the weather alerts for Patterson; Alert Ready carries the urgent ones to phones, radio and TV.
| Alert | What it means |
|---|---|
| Warning | Severe weather is happening or about to: act now. |
| Watch | Conditions favour severe weather: be ready. |
| Advisory | Weather that is less severe but could disrupt the day. |
| Special weather statement | Unusual weather worth knowing about. |
| Special air quality statement | Poor air, often wildfire smoke. |
For fires near Patterson, the national fire information system maps danger and active fires daily; local authorities give any evacuation order.
Weather alerts (ECCC) · Alert Ready · Fire danger and active fires (CWFIS)
Hazards in the places around Patterson
Wildfire band, earthquake risk, radon and flood studies for each place nearby.
| Town | Wildfire | Quake $/1,000 | Radon | Flood study |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patterson | Low | $0.023 | 8.1% | Yes |
| Coach Hill 3,383 · 0.7 km | Low | $0.023 | 8.1% | None listed |
| Strathcona Park 8,680 · 1.4 km | Low | $0.023 | 8.1% | None listed |
| Montgomery 4,456 · 1.6 km | Low | $0.023 | 8.1% | Yes |
| Wildwood 4,177 · 1.9 km | Low | $0.023 | 8.1% | Yes |
| Westgate 3,139 · 2.0 km | Low | $0.023 | 8.1% | Yes |
| West Springs 11,632 · 2.2 km | Low | $0.023 | 8.1% | None listed |
Patterson’s low band tops its neighbours; Coach Hill is next (low).
Radon is the survey area’s figure, so neighbours in one area share it.
Get ready for what Patterson faces
Practical steps for Patterson’s hazards, most pressing first.
- Test for three months in winter.
- Over 200 Bq/m³: fix it.
- Kits are cheap; pros test too.
- Never drive through floodwater.
- Move papers and medicines upstairs.
- Ask whether your street is mapped.
- Clear needles and wood nearby.
- Keep a grab-and-go bag ready.
- In smoke, stay in; filter air.
- Has it had a radon test?
- Check the address on the flood map.
- Are flood and wildfire insured?
What this data can and can’t tell you
- Wildfire counts one way. The wildfire figure is the share of land within 25 km of Patterson’s homes burned each year from 1986 to 2025, past fire rather than a forecast, and it can only lower Risk.
- Radon is a survey. The radon share comes from about 14,000 long-term home tests in 2009–2011, pooled for now by the 2007 health region Patterson sits in.
- Flood studies aren’t flood zones. A study’s area can be a whole watershed or province, so being on the inventory says a map exists, not that a home in Patterson floods.
- Earthquakes are modelled. Shaking damage is modelled from the ground, the buildings and the odds of each quake, and published for whole subdivisions such as Patterson’s.
Questions about flooding and hazards in Patterson
Is Patterson at risk of wildfire?
Not much by Canadian standards: Patterson’s band is low, with 0% of the land within 25 km burned since 1986 (last in 2014), so wildfire doesn’t change its grade.
Is radon a problem in Patterson?
8.1% of the 86 homes Health Canada tested around Patterson topped the guideline; your own house needs its own test.
Does Patterson flood?
Patterson’s area has been studied for flooding, and the owner’s map shows which streets lie in a zone; the grade leaves flood out.
How is Patterson’s Hazard risk Grade worked out?
Patterson’s Hazard risk grade is B+, built on earthquakes and radon with a one-sided wildfire input.
How big is the earthquake risk in Patterson?
In NRCan’s seismic model, Patterson’s buildings lose $0.023 per $1,000 of value in an average year.
Seismic risk: Natural Resources Canada. Radon: Health Canada. Wildfire: Canadian Wildland Fire Information System. Flood studies: Natural Resources Canada, Canada Flood Map Inventory. Contains information licensed under the Open Government Licence – Canada.
Sources: NRCan, Canada’s Seismic Risk Model 2022 · Health Canada, Cross-Canada Survey of Radon Concentrations in Homes · CWFIS, National Burned Area Composite and FBP fuel types · NRCan, Canada Flood Map Inventory. Under the Statistics Canada Open Licence.
Adapted from Statistics Canada (Census of Population 2021, population estimates 2025, 2021 census boundaries) under the Statistics Canada Open Licence; this does not constitute an endorsement by Statistics Canada. Neighbourhood names in some cities © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL).