More hazard damage per building is expected in San Pablo than in 97% of U.S. towns, mostly from earthquakes
On FEMA’s National Risk Index, San Pablo gets a D− for hazard risk: higher expected damage per building than 97% of U.S. towns, #680 of 847 in California. Most of that expected damage is earthquakes (53%), then river and rain flooding (47%). Flood insurance has paid 43 claims here since 1981.
Graded on FEMA’s expected yearly building damage per dollar of building value (NRI v1.20, December 2025), weighted by where residents live; flood claims are shown, not graded. How hazard risk is graded
What stands out about San Pablo’s natural hazards
From FEMA’s model and FEMA’s records, below.
What San Pablo faces
Each hazard’s share of the building damage FEMA expects here, and how its rate compares with the rest of the country.
Earthquakes
River and rain flooding
Shares are of FEMA’s expected building damage, the measure the grade uses; ranks compare each hazard’s building-damage rate with all 85,154 U.S. census tracts. In FEMA’s terms, river and rain flooding is FEMA’s “Inland Flooding” (rivers and streams overflowing their banks, or rain overwhelming drainage). FEMA defines coastal flooding as high or rising tides and storm surge, so surge damage is counted there. Drought isn’t listed: FEMA counts its losses in crops only.
What’s behind San Pablo’s grade
Earthquakes are 53% of the building damage FEMA expects in San Pablo, and San Pablo’s rate of earthquakes damage is in the top 2% of U.S. census tracts. River and rain flooding adds 47%, at a rate in the top 8% of U.S. census tracts.
D− #680 of 847 in California; higher expected damage per building than 97% of U.S. towns (21,298).
San Pablo’s residents live in 9 census tracts; FEMA’s figures are combined by where they live.
The typical California town has higher expected damage than 92% of U.S. towns; within the state, San Pablo has more expected damage per building than 80% of California towns.
In dollars, FEMA expects about $23.6M a year in losses across San Pablo: $16.1M to buildings, the rest to people and crops.
Does San Pablo flood? Sometimes: 43 flood claims since 1981
Every paid claim on a federal flood insurance policy in San Pablo, from FEMA’s records: 4.3 per 1,000 homes, more than 57% of the 13,809 U.S. towns with a flood insurance record.
- The California Atmospheric River1 claim · $3K
San Pablo is in FEMA’s Community Rating System (class 9) for its flood-proofing work.
Insurance rates: Contra Costa County.3 federal disasters brought FEMA money to San Pablo
Disasters that paid out in San Pablo itself (aid to households or repair grants to the City of San Pablo), newest first, with that year’s flood claims.
- 2022Severe Winter Storms, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides52 households applied for aid$47K aid approved
- 2017Severe Winter Storms, Flooding, and Mudslides$3K to the City of San Pablo for repairs
- 2005Severe Storms, Flooding, Mudslides, and Landslides34 households applied for aid$37K aid approved$197K to the City of San Pablo for repairs5 flood claims paid that year
Contra Costa County has had 17 natural disasters declared by the President since 1953, most often severe storms, then floods. Not counted: the 2005 Hurricane Katrina evacuee emergency, which covered counties that took in evacuees.
Old photos of San Pablo after a storm or flood belong in the town’s history. Add one, or share what you remember below.
Add to the San Pablo archive →San Pablo and its neighbors
San Pablo is 2nd of the 4 graded towns here, from least expected damage per building to most. Tap a town to see its hazards.
| Town | Hazard risk | Mostly (buildings) | Flood claims |
|---|---|---|---|
| Richmond | Dmore damage than 94% | earthquakes | 36 |
| San Pablo | D−more damage than 97% | earthquakes | 43 |
| Rollingwood | D−more damage than 97% | earthquakes | 1 |
| El Sobrante | D−more damage than 98% | river and rain flooding | 1 |
Hazard risk = FEMA’s expected yearly building damage per dollar of building value, vs. the 21,298 U.S. towns we grade; the map is shaded by fifths of the same scale. Flood claims = paid federal flood insurance claims on record.
Get ready for what San Pablo faces
A short kit for the hazards that drive the building damage here, what to check before you buy, and where neighbors get alerts.
- Drop, cover and hold on.
- Strap tall furniture and the water heater to the wall.
- Know how to shut off the gas.
- Turn around at flooded roads: a foot of moving water can carry off a car.
- Flood insurance usually takes 30 days to start, so buy it before the forecast.
- Keep papers and medicines up high, in a grab-and-go bag.
- Look up the address on FEMA’s flood map.
- Ask the seller or landlord whether it has ever flooded, and what flood insurance costs there.
- Get a flood insurance quote early: policies usually start 30 days after you buy.
- San Pablo residents get 05% off flood insurance.
Know where neighbors sign up for alerts? Add it to the Handbook so everyone has it.
Questions about natural hazards in San Pablo
Is San Pablo at risk for natural disasters?
On FEMA’s National Risk Index, San Pablo has higher expected damage per building than 97% of U.S. towns: D− for hazard risk, #680 of 847 in California. Most of the expected damage is earthquakes (53%) and river and rain flooding (47%). This is FEMA’s model of an average year for today’s buildings, not a forecast.
Does San Pablo flood?
Flood insurance has paid 43 claims in San Pablo since 1981, $464K in all, or 4.3 per 1,000 homes, more than 57% of U.S. towns with a flood insurance record. 7 properties have flooded more than once. The most claims came from California Atmospheric River (1).
Is San Pablo in a flood zone?
Flood zones are drawn street by street, so the answer depends on the address: look it up on FEMA’s flood map. In Contra Costa County, 28% of homes in mapped flood zones carry federal flood insurance, and 0.9% of all homes do.
How much is flood insurance in San Pablo?
San Pablo is in FEMA’s Community Rating System (class 9), which takes 05% off federal flood insurance policies for its flood-proofing work. Premiums depend on the building; policies usually start 30 days after you buy, so get a quote early.
What was the biggest storm in San Pablo?
By FEMA money that reached San Pablo, Severe Storms, Flooding, Mudslides, and Landslides (2005): 34 households applied for aid, $37K approved, and $197K to the City of San Pablo for repairs. By flood claims, California Atmospheric River: 1 paid, $3K.
Is San Pablo at risk from earthquakes?
It is the largest share of the building damage FEMA expects here (53%), and San Pablo’s rate for it is in the top 2% of U.S. census tracts.
Storm stories
Memories, warnings and help from neighbors in San Pablo.
Sources: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 (December 2025), census-tract table, combined by where San Pablo’s residents lived in the 2020 census; OpenFEMA: NFIP redacted claims, multiple-loss properties, community status book and residential penetration rates, housing assistance (owners and renters), public assistance funded projects, hazard mitigation properties and disaster declarations. Homes: Census ACS 2020–24. Preparedness tips: Ready.gov. FEMA’s model is an average of expected damage, not a forecast. How hazard risk is graded.