Photo: OsotedeMonte · CC BY 3.0FEMA puts Modesto’s expected hazard damage per building above that of 75% of U.S. towns, mostly from river and rain flooding
On FEMA’s National Risk Index, Modesto gets a C for hazard risk: higher expected damage per building than 75% of U.S. towns, #137 of 847 in California. Most of that expected damage is river and rain flooding (62%), then earthquakes (38%). Flood insurance has paid 41 claims here since 1982.
Graded on FEMA’s expected yearly building damage per dollar of building value (NRI v1.20, December 2025), weighted by where residents live; flood claims are shown, not graded. How hazard risk is graded
What Modesto faces
Each hazard’s share of the building damage FEMA expects here, and how its rate compares with the rest of the country.
River and rain flooding
Earthquakes
Shares are of FEMA’s expected building damage, the measure the grade uses; ranks compare each hazard’s building-damage rate with all 85,154 U.S. census tracts. In FEMA’s terms, river and rain flooding is FEMA’s “Inland Flooding” (rivers and streams overflowing their banks, or rain overwhelming drainage). FEMA defines coastal flooding as high or rising tides and storm surge, so surge damage is counted there. Drought isn’t listed: FEMA counts its losses in crops only.
What’s behind Modesto’s grade
River and rain flooding is 62% of the building damage FEMA expects in Modesto, and Modesto’s rate of river and rain flooding damage is higher than 75% of U.S. census tracts. Next is earthquakes at 38% (higher than 86% of U.S. census tracts).
C #137 of 847 in California; higher expected damage per building than 75% of U.S. towns (21,298).
Modesto’s residents live in 52 census tracts; FEMA’s figures are combined by where they live.
The typical California town has higher expected damage than 92% of U.S. towns; within the state, Modesto has less expected damage per building than 84% of California towns.
Among the 400 U.S. cities of 100,000 or more, Modesto has higher expected damage per building than 66% (#266 of 400). Because it is so big, its total expected yearly loss, $70.2M, is the 169th largest of those 400.
Does Modesto flood? Sometimes: 41 flood claims since 1982
Every paid claim on a federal flood insurance policy in Modesto, from FEMA’s records: 0.5 per 1,000 homes, fewer than 88% of the 13,809 U.S. towns with a flood insurance record.
- The Pineapple Express - Southern5 claims · $48K
Modesto isn’t in FEMA’s Community Rating System, which cuts flood insurance up to 45% in towns that do extra flood-proofing.
Insurance rates: Stanislaus County.4 federal disasters brought FEMA money to Modesto
Disasters that paid out in Modesto itself (aid to households or repair grants to the City of Modesto), newest first, with that year’s flood claims.
- 2023Severe Winter Storms, Straight-line Winds, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides$93K to the City of Modesto for repairs
- 2022Severe Winter Storms, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides$417K to the City of Modesto for repairs
- 2017Severe Winter Storms, Flooding, and Mudslides$2.0M to the City of Modesto for repairs1 flood claim paid that year
- 2006Severe Storms, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides$129K to the City of Modesto for repairs
Stanislaus County has had 16 natural disasters declared by the President since 1953, most often severe storms, then floods. Not counted: the 2005 Hurricane Katrina evacuee emergency, which covered counties that took in evacuees.
Also 1 FEMA wildfire suppression grant (Fire Management Assistance, not a disaster declaration) for fires in Stanislaus County, 2020–2020.
Old photos of Modesto after a storm or flood belong in the town’s history. Add one, or share what you remember below.
Add to the Modesto archive →Modesto and its neighbors
Modesto is 3rd of the 7 graded towns here, from least expected damage per building to most. Tap a town to see its hazards.
| Town | Hazard risk | Mostly (buildings) | Flood claims |
|---|---|---|---|
| Salida | Bless damage than 58% | earthquakes | — |
| Parklawn | B−less damage than 55% | earthquakes | — |
| Modesto | Cmore damage than 75% | river and rain flooding | 41 |
| Empire | C−more damage than 77% | river and rain flooding | 1 |
| Riverdale Park | C−more damage than 83% | river and rain flooding | — |
| Bystrom | Dmore damage than 91% | river and rain flooding | — |
| West Modesto | D−more damage than 96% | river and rain flooding | — |
| Airport | — | 903 residents; we grade 1,000+ | |
Hazard risk = FEMA’s expected yearly building damage per dollar of building value, vs. the 21,298 U.S. towns we grade; the map is shaded by fifths of the same scale. Flood claims = paid federal flood insurance claims on record.
Get ready for what Modesto faces
A short kit for the hazards that drive the building damage here, what to check before you buy, and where neighbors get alerts.
- Turn around at flooded roads: a foot of moving water can carry off a car.
- Flood insurance usually takes 30 days to start, so buy it before the forecast.
- Keep papers and medicines up high, in a grab-and-go bag.
- Drop, cover and hold on.
- Strap tall furniture and the water heater to the wall.
- Know how to shut off the gas.
- Look up the address on FEMA’s flood map.
- Ask the seller or landlord whether it has ever flooded, and what flood insurance costs there.
- Get a flood insurance quote early: policies usually start 30 days after you buy.
Know where neighbors sign up for alerts? Add it to the Handbook so everyone has it.
Questions about natural hazards in Modesto
Is Modesto at risk for natural disasters?
On FEMA’s National Risk Index, Modesto has higher expected damage per building than 75% of U.S. towns: C for hazard risk, #137 of 847 in California. Most of the expected damage is river and rain flooding (62%) and earthquakes (38%). This is FEMA’s model of an average year for today’s buildings, not a forecast.
Does Modesto flood?
Flood insurance has paid 41 claims in Modesto since 1982, $1.7M in all, or 0.5 per 1,000 homes, fewer than 88% of U.S. towns with a flood insurance record. 6 properties have flooded more than once. The most claims came from Pineapple Express - Southern (5).
Is Modesto in a flood zone?
Flood zones are drawn street by street, so the answer depends on the address: look it up on FEMA’s flood map. In Stanislaus County, 23% of homes in mapped flood zones carry federal flood insurance, and 0.4% of all homes do.
How much is flood insurance in Modesto?
FEMA’s Community Rating System list shows no discount for Modesto’s flood program. Premiums depend on the building; policies usually start 30 days after you buy, so get a quote early.
What was the biggest storm in Modesto?
By FEMA money that reached Modesto, Severe Winter Storms, Flooding, and Mudslides (2017): $2.0M to the City of Modesto for repairs. By flood claims, Pineapple Express - Southern: 5 paid, $48K.
Is Modesto at risk from river and rain flooding?
It is the largest share of the building damage FEMA expects here (62%), and Modesto’s rate for it is higher than 75% of U.S. census tracts.
Storm stories
Memories, warnings and help from neighbors in Modesto.
Sources: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 (December 2025), census-tract table, combined by where Modesto’s residents lived in the 2020 census; OpenFEMA: NFIP redacted claims, multiple-loss properties, community status book and residential penetration rates, housing assistance (owners and renters), public assistance funded projects, hazard mitigation properties and disaster declarations. Homes: Census ACS 2020–24. Preparedness tips: Ready.gov. FEMA’s model is an average of expected damage, not a forecast. How hazard risk is graded.