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D−Hazard risk
Natural hazards in Middletown · FEMA

FEMA expects more hazard damage per building in Middletown than almost anywhere in the U.S., mostly from river and rain flooding

On FEMA’s National Risk Index, Middletown gets a D− for hazard risk: among the highest expected damage per building of U.S. towns. Most of that expected damage is river and rain flooding (62%), then wildfire (22%). FEMA’s files show no paid flood insurance claims here.

River and rain flooding 62%Wildfire 22%Earthquakes 16%

Graded on FEMA’s expected yearly building damage per dollar of building value (NRI v1.20, December 2025), weighted by where residents live; flood claims are shown, not graded. How hazard risk is graded

among the highestof U.S. townsLess damageMoreExpected yearly damage per dollar of building, vs. the 21,298 U.S. towns we grade
Hazard risk
D−
in California · among the highest of U.S. towns
Main hazard
River and rain flooding
62% of expected building damage
Flood claims
0
paid since 1978 · $0
Disasters paid out here
4
of 22 declared for Lake County

What stands out about Middletown’s natural hazards

From FEMA’s model and FEMA’s records, below.

Wildfire: the top 1% of U.S. tractsFEMA’s building-damage rate for wildfire here ranks in the top 1% of U.S. census tracts; it is 22.3% of the damage it expects.Moved out of harm’s way4 homes raised above flood level with FEMA grants.
By hazard

What Middletown faces

Each hazard’s share of the building damage FEMA expects here, and how its rate compares with the rest of the country.

River and rain flooding

62%of expected building damage
Well above average · in the top 1% of U.S. census tracts
Recorded about once every 2 years in the area

Wildfire

22%of expected building damage
Well above average · in the top 1% of U.S. census tracts

Earthquakes

16%of expected building damage
Well above average · in the top 8% of U.S. census tracts
Smaller shares here
 Landslides top 2% Tornadoes Hail Strong wind Winter storms Heat waves Lightning Volcanic activity top 0%
FEMA models no building damage here
Coastal floodingHurricanesIce stormsCold wavesAvalanchesTsunamis
People, not buildings.Counting harm to people as well as buildings, FEMA’s model puts avalanches at 12% of Middletown’s expected losses. Avalanches do little damage to buildings (0.0%), so they aren’t part of the grade.

Shares are of FEMA’s expected building damage, the measure the grade uses; ranks compare each hazard’s building-damage rate with all 85,154 U.S. census tracts. In FEMA’s terms, river and rain flooding is FEMA’s “Inland Flooding” (rivers and streams overflowing their banks, or rain overwhelming drainage). FEMA defines coastal flooding as high or rising tides and storm surge, so surge damage is counted there. Drought isn’t listed: FEMA counts its losses in crops only.

Flood risk changes street by street. Check a specific address on FEMA’s flood map, and ask about flood insurance before you buy.
Hazard risk grade

What’s behind Middletown’s grade

River and rain flooding is 62% of the building damage FEMA expects in Middletown, and Middletown’s rate of river and rain flooding damage is in the top 1% of U.S. census tracts. Wildfire adds 22%, at a rate in the top 1% of U.S. census tracts.

Where Middletown sits
Middletown
Least damageMiddleMost damage

D− among the highest expected damage per building of U.S. towns (21,298).

All of Middletown’s residents live in one census tract; the figures are that tract’s.

What drives the damage to buildings
River and rain flooding62%Wildfire22%Earthquakes16%

In dollars, FEMA expects about $2.8M a year in losses across Middletown: $2.2M to buildings, the rest to people and crops.

Shared tract.All of Middletown’s 1,114 residents (2020 census) live in one census tract. FEMA publishes its model by tract, so the rate and the hazard mix are the tract’s. The flood claims below are the town’s own.
A shared figure. The grade describes the whole tract, not each street in it, and FEMA’s model is an average year for today’s buildings, not a record: the claims below are the record.

How TownRatings grades hazard risk →

Flood insurance claims

Does Middletown flood? No paid flood claims on record

FEMA’s records show no paid flood insurance claims in Middletown. That’s not a promise: most homes don’t carry flood insurance, so small floods go unrecorded.

of homes in flood zones are insured
of all homes are insured
No community discount

Middletown isn’t in FEMA’s Community Rating System, which cuts flood insurance up to 45% in towns that do extra flood-proofing.

Insurance rates: Lake County.
What’s been done with FEMA grants
4homes raised above flood level
Disasters

4 federal disasters brought FEMA money to Middletown

Disasters that paid out in Middletown itself (aid to households or repair grants to Middletown), newest first, with that year’s flood claims.

  1. 2020Wildfires37 households applied for aid$36K aid approved
  2. 2017Wildfires12 households applied for aid$500 aid approved
  3. 2015Valley Fire and Butte Fire1,165 households applied for aid$5.1M aid approved
  4. 2005Severe Storms, Flooding, Mudslides, and Landslides5 households applied for aid$4K aid approved
Disasters declared, by decade
Paid out in MiddletownLake County only

Lake County has had 22 natural disasters declared by the President since 1953, most often severe storms, then floods. Not counted: the 2005 Hurricane Katrina evacuee emergency, which covered counties that took in evacuees.

Also 10 FEMA wildfire suppression grants (Fire Management Assistance, not a disaster declaration) for fires in Lake County, 2004–2024.

Were you here?

Old photos of Middletown after a storm or flood belong in the town’s history. Add one, or share what you remember below.

Add to the Middletown archive →
Be ready

Get ready for what Middletown faces

A short kit for the hazards that drive the building damage here, what to check before you buy, and where neighbors get alerts.

When the river rises
  • Turn around at flooded roads: a foot of moving water can carry off a car.
  • Flood insurance usually takes 30 days to start, so buy it before the forecast.
  • Keep papers and medicines up high, in a grab-and-go bag.
More from Ready.gov ↗
Wildfire
  • Clear dead leaves and brush within 5 feet of the house.
  • Sign up for local alerts and know two ways out.
  • Keep N95 masks for smoky days.
More from Ready.gov ↗
Earthquakes
  • Drop, cover and hold on.
  • Strap tall furniture and the water heater to the wall.
  • Know how to shut off the gas.
More from Ready.gov ↗
Before you buy or rent
  • Look up the address on FEMA’s flood map.
  • Ask the seller or landlord whether it has ever flooded, and what flood insurance costs there.
  • Get a flood insurance quote early: policies usually start 30 days after you buy.
When a storm is coming
Forecast and alertsWeather →911, the nearest ERSafety →

Know where neighbors sign up for alerts? Add it to the Handbook so everyone has it.

Questions about natural hazards in Middletown

Is Middletown at risk for natural disasters?

On FEMA’s National Risk Index, Middletown has among the highest expected damage per building of U.S. towns: D− for hazard risk. Most of the expected damage is river and rain flooding (62%) and wildfire (22%). The figures are for the one census tract the town shares with its neighbors. This is FEMA’s model of an average year for today’s buildings, not a forecast.

Is Middletown in a flood zone?

Flood zones are drawn street by street, so the answer depends on the address: look it up on FEMA’s flood map. In Lake County, 15% of homes in mapped flood zones carry federal flood insurance, and 2.4% of all homes do.

How much is flood insurance in Middletown?

FEMA’s Community Rating System list shows no discount for Middletown’s flood program. Premiums depend on the building; policies usually start 30 days after you buy, so get a quote early.

What was the biggest storm in Middletown?

By FEMA money that reached Middletown, Valley Fire and Butte Fire (2015): 1,165 households applied for aid, $5.1M approved.

Is Middletown at risk from river and rain flooding?

It is the largest share of the building damage FEMA expects here (62%), and Middletown’s rate for it is in the top 1% of U.S. census tracts.

Storm stories

Memories, warnings and help from neighbors in Middletown.

Town Square →
Start the conversation

Sources: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 (December 2025), census-tract table, combined by where Middletown’s residents lived in the 2020 census; OpenFEMA: NFIP redacted claims, multiple-loss properties, community status book and residential penetration rates, housing assistance (owners and renters), public assistance funded projects, hazard mitigation properties and disaster declarations. Homes: Census ACS 2020–24. Preparedness tips: Ready.gov. FEMA’s model is an average of expected damage, not a forecast. How hazard risk is graded.