FEMA expects more hazard damage per building in Lake Mathews than almost anywhere in the U.S., mostly from wildfire
On FEMA’s National Risk Index, Lake Mathews gets a D− for hazard risk: among the highest expected damage per building of U.S. towns, #840 of 847 in California. Most of that expected damage is wildfire (68%), then river and rain flooding (23%). FEMA’s files show no paid flood insurance claims here.
Graded on FEMA’s expected yearly building damage per dollar of building value (NRI v1.20, December 2025), weighted by where residents live; flood claims are shown, not graded. How hazard risk is graded
What Lake Mathews faces
Each hazard’s share of the building damage FEMA expects here, and how its rate compares with the rest of the country.
Wildfire
River and rain flooding
Earthquakes
Shares are of FEMA’s expected building damage, the measure the grade uses; ranks compare each hazard’s building-damage rate with all 85,154 U.S. census tracts. In FEMA’s terms, river and rain flooding is FEMA’s “Inland Flooding” (rivers and streams overflowing their banks, or rain overwhelming drainage). FEMA defines coastal flooding as high or rising tides and storm surge, so surge damage is counted there. Drought isn’t listed: FEMA counts its losses in crops only.
What’s behind Lake Mathews’ grade
Wildfire is 68% of the building damage FEMA expects in Lake Mathews, and Lake Mathews’ rate of wildfire damage is in the top 1% of U.S. census tracts. River and rain flooding adds 23%, at a rate in the top 10% of U.S. census tracts.
D− #840 of 847 in California; among the highest expected damage per building of U.S. towns (21,298).
Lake Mathews’ residents live in 4 census tracts; FEMA’s figures are combined by where they live.
The typical California town has higher expected damage than 92% of U.S. towns; within the state, Lake Mathews has more expected damage per building than 99% of California towns.
In dollars, FEMA expects about $8.6M a year in losses across Lake Mathews: $8.1M to buildings, the rest to people and crops.
Does Lake Mathews flood? No paid flood claims on record
FEMA’s records show no paid flood insurance claims in Lake Mathews. That’s not a promise: most homes don’t carry flood insurance, so small floods go unrecorded.
Lake Mathews isn’t in FEMA’s Community Rating System, which cuts flood insurance up to 45% in towns that do extra flood-proofing.
Insurance rates: Riverside County.The storms Lake Mathews remembers
None of the 33 disasters declared for Riverside County shows FEMA aid or repair money reaching Lake Mathews itself in FEMA’s records, so these are its biggest flood-claim years.
Riverside County has had 33 natural disasters declared by the President since 1953, most often severe storms, then floods. Not counted: the 2005 Hurricane Katrina evacuee emergency, which covered counties that took in evacuees.
Also 30 FEMA wildfire suppression grants (Fire Management Assistance, not a disaster declaration) for fires in Riverside County, 2003–2026.
Lake Mathews and its neighbors
Lake Mathews is 3rd of the 3 graded towns here, from least expected damage per building to most. Tap a town to see its hazards.
| Town | Hazard risk | Mostly (buildings) | Flood claims |
|---|---|---|---|
| Woodcrest | D−more damage than 96% | river and rain flooding | 1 |
| Mead Valley | D−among the highest damage | wildfire | 7 |
| Lake Mathews | D−among the highest damage | wildfire | 0 |
Hazard risk = FEMA’s expected yearly building damage per dollar of building value, vs. the 21,298 U.S. towns we grade; the map is shaded by fifths of the same scale. Flood claims = paid federal flood insurance claims on record.
Get ready for what Lake Mathews faces
A short kit for the hazards that drive the building damage here, what to check before you buy, and where neighbors get alerts.
- Clear dead leaves and brush within 5 feet of the house.
- Sign up for local alerts and know two ways out.
- Keep N95 masks for smoky days.
- Turn around at flooded roads: a foot of moving water can carry off a car.
- Flood insurance usually takes 30 days to start, so buy it before the forecast.
- Keep papers and medicines up high, in a grab-and-go bag.
- Drop, cover and hold on.
- Strap tall furniture and the water heater to the wall.
- Know how to shut off the gas.
- Look up the address on FEMA’s flood map.
- Ask the seller or landlord whether it has ever flooded, and what flood insurance costs there.
- Get a flood insurance quote early: policies usually start 30 days after you buy.
Know where neighbors sign up for alerts? Add it to the Handbook so everyone has it.
Questions about natural hazards in Lake Mathews
Is Lake Mathews at risk for natural disasters?
On FEMA’s National Risk Index, Lake Mathews has among the highest expected damage per building of U.S. towns: D− for hazard risk, #840 of 847 in California. Most of the expected damage is wildfire (68%) and river and rain flooding (23%). This is FEMA’s model of an average year for today’s buildings, not a forecast.
Is Lake Mathews in a flood zone?
Flood zones are drawn street by street, so the answer depends on the address: look it up on FEMA’s flood map. In Riverside County, 16% of homes in mapped flood zones carry federal flood insurance, and 0.5% of all homes do.
How much is flood insurance in Lake Mathews?
FEMA’s Community Rating System list shows no discount for Lake Mathews’ flood program. Premiums depend on the building; policies usually start 30 days after you buy, so get a quote early.
Is Lake Mathews at risk from wildfire?
It is the largest share of the building damage FEMA expects here (68%), and Lake Mathews’ rate for it is in the top 1% of U.S. census tracts.
Storm stories
Memories, warnings and help from neighbors in Lake Mathews.
Sources: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 (December 2025), census-tract table, combined by where Lake Mathews’ residents lived in the 2020 census; OpenFEMA: NFIP redacted claims, multiple-loss properties, community status book and residential penetration rates, housing assistance (owners and renters), public assistance funded projects, hazard mitigation properties and disaster declarations. Homes: Census ACS 2020–24. Preparedness tips: Ready.gov. FEMA’s model is an average of expected damage, not a forecast. How hazard risk is graded.