Photo: shadowhound · CC BY-SA 2.0On FEMA’s figures, few U.S. towns expect more hazard damage per building than Lake Arrowhead, mostly from wildfire
On FEMA’s National Risk Index, Lake Arrowhead gets a D− for hazard risk: among the highest expected damage per building of U.S. towns, #785 of 847 in California. Most of that expected damage is wildfire (59%), then earthquakes (19%). Flood insurance has paid 2 claims here since 2023.
Graded on FEMA’s expected yearly building damage per dollar of building value (NRI v1.20, December 2025), weighted by where residents live; flood claims are shown, not graded. How hazard risk is graded
What Lake Arrowhead faces
Each hazard’s share of the building damage FEMA expects here, and how its rate compares with the rest of the country.
Wildfire
Earthquakes
River and rain flooding
Shares are of FEMA’s expected building damage, the measure the grade uses; ranks compare each hazard’s building-damage rate with all 85,154 U.S. census tracts. In FEMA’s terms, river and rain flooding is FEMA’s “Inland Flooding” (rivers and streams overflowing their banks, or rain overwhelming drainage). FEMA defines coastal flooding as high or rising tides and storm surge, so surge damage is counted there. Drought isn’t listed: FEMA counts its losses in crops only.
What’s behind Lake Arrowhead’s grade
Wildfire is 59% of the building damage FEMA expects in Lake Arrowhead, and Lake Arrowhead’s rate of wildfire damage is in the top 1% of U.S. census tracts. Earthquakes add 19%, at a rate in the top 9% of U.S. census tracts.
D− #785 of 847 in California; among the highest expected damage per building of U.S. towns (21,298).
Lake Arrowhead’s residents live in 9 census tracts; FEMA’s figures are combined by where they live.
The typical California town has higher expected damage than 92% of U.S. towns; within the state, Lake Arrowhead has more expected damage per building than 93% of California towns.
In dollars, FEMA expects about $29.3M a year in losses across Lake Arrowhead: $26.8M to buildings, the rest to people and crops.
Does Lake Arrowhead flood? Rarely: 2 flood claims since 2023
Every paid claim on a federal flood insurance policy in Lake Arrowhead, from FEMA’s records: 0.2 per 1,000 homes, fewer than 98% of the 13,809 U.S. towns with a flood insurance record.
- The California Atmospheric River1 claim · $8K
Lake Arrowhead isn’t in FEMA’s Community Rating System, which cuts flood insurance up to 45% in towns that do extra flood-proofing.
Insurance rates: San Bernardino County.4 federal disasters brought FEMA money to Lake Arrowhead
Disasters that paid out in Lake Arrowhead itself (aid to households or repair grants to Lake Arrowhead), newest first, with that year’s flood claims.
- 2023Severe Winter Storms, Straight-line Winds, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides436 households applied for aid$628K aid approved1 flood claim paid that year
- 2007Wildfires, Flooding, Mud Flows, and Debris Flows643 households applied for aid$154K aid approved
- 2004Severe Storms, Flooding, Debris Flows, and Mudslides43 households applied for aid$26K aid approved
- 2003Wildfires, Flooding, Mudflow and Debris Flow Directly Related T1,017 households applied for aid$173K aid approved
San Bernardino County has had 34 natural disasters declared by the President since 1953, most often severe storms, then floods. Not counted: the 2005 Hurricane Katrina evacuee emergency, which covered counties that took in evacuees.
Also 24 FEMA wildfire suppression grants (Fire Management Assistance, not a disaster declaration) for fires in San Bernardino County, 2002–2024.
Old photos of Lake Arrowhead after a storm or flood belong in the town’s history. Add one, or share what you remember below.
Add to the Lake Arrowhead archive →Lake Arrowhead and its neighbors
Lake Arrowhead has the lowest expected damage per building of the 2 graded towns here. Tap a town to see its hazards.
| Town | Hazard risk | Mostly (buildings) | Flood claims |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lake Arrowhead | D−among the highest damage | wildfire | 2 |
| Crestline | D−among the highest damage | wildfire | 9 |
Hazard risk = FEMA’s expected yearly building damage per dollar of building value, vs. the 21,298 U.S. towns we grade; the map is shaded by fifths of the same scale. Flood claims = paid federal flood insurance claims on record.
Get ready for what Lake Arrowhead faces
A short kit for the hazards that drive the building damage here, what to check before you buy, and where neighbors get alerts.
- Clear dead leaves and brush within 5 feet of the house.
- Sign up for local alerts and know two ways out.
- Keep N95 masks for smoky days.
- Drop, cover and hold on.
- Strap tall furniture and the water heater to the wall.
- Know how to shut off the gas.
- Turn around at flooded roads: a foot of moving water can carry off a car.
- Flood insurance usually takes 30 days to start, so buy it before the forecast.
- Keep papers and medicines up high, in a grab-and-go bag.
- Look up the address on FEMA’s flood map.
- Ask the seller or landlord whether it has ever flooded, and what flood insurance costs there.
- Get a flood insurance quote early: policies usually start 30 days after you buy.
Know where neighbors sign up for alerts? Add it to the Handbook so everyone has it.
Questions about natural hazards in Lake Arrowhead
Is Lake Arrowhead at risk for natural disasters?
On FEMA’s National Risk Index, Lake Arrowhead has among the highest expected damage per building of U.S. towns: D− for hazard risk, #785 of 847 in California. Most of the expected damage is wildfire (59%) and earthquakes (19%). This is FEMA’s model of an average year for today’s buildings, not a forecast.
Does Lake Arrowhead flood?
Flood insurance has paid 2 claims in Lake Arrowhead since 2023, $15K in all, or 0.2 per 1,000 homes, fewer than 98% of U.S. towns with a flood insurance record. The most claims came from California Atmospheric River (1).
Is Lake Arrowhead in a flood zone?
Flood zones are drawn street by street, so the answer depends on the address: look it up on FEMA’s flood map. In San Bernardino County, 15% of homes in mapped flood zones carry federal flood insurance, and 0.3% of all homes do.
How much is flood insurance in Lake Arrowhead?
FEMA’s Community Rating System list shows no discount for Lake Arrowhead’s flood program. Premiums depend on the building; policies usually start 30 days after you buy, so get a quote early.
What was the biggest storm in Lake Arrowhead?
By FEMA money that reached Lake Arrowhead, Severe Winter Storms, Straight-line Winds, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides (2023): 436 households applied for aid, $628K approved. By flood claims, California Atmospheric River: 1 paid, $8K.
Is Lake Arrowhead at risk from wildfire?
It is the largest share of the building damage FEMA expects here (59%), and Lake Arrowhead’s rate for it is in the top 1% of U.S. census tracts.
Storm stories
Memories, warnings and help from neighbors in Lake Arrowhead.
Sources: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 (December 2025), census-tract table, combined by where Lake Arrowhead’s residents lived in the 2020 census; OpenFEMA: NFIP redacted claims, multiple-loss properties, community status book and residential penetration rates, housing assistance (owners and renters), public assistance funded projects, hazard mitigation properties and disaster declarations. Homes: Census ACS 2020–24. Preparedness tips: Ready.gov. FEMA’s model is an average of expected damage, not a forecast. How hazard risk is graded.