Photo: Sanfranman59 · CC BY-SA 3.0FEMA expects more hazard damage per building in Gilroy than in 97% of U.S. towns, mostly from earthquakes
On FEMA’s National Risk Index, Gilroy gets a D− for hazard risk: higher expected damage per building than 97% of U.S. towns, #676 of 847 in California. Most of that expected damage is earthquakes (51%), then river and rain flooding (47%). Flood insurance has paid 21 claims here since 1982.
Graded on FEMA’s expected yearly building damage per dollar of building value (NRI v1.20, December 2025), weighted by where residents live; flood claims are shown, not graded. How hazard risk is graded
What stands out about Gilroy’s natural hazards
From FEMA’s model and FEMA’s records, below.
What Gilroy faces
Each hazard’s share of the building damage FEMA expects here, and how its rate compares with the rest of the country.
Earthquakes
River and rain flooding
Shares are of FEMA’s expected building damage, the measure the grade uses; ranks compare each hazard’s building-damage rate with all 85,154 U.S. census tracts. In FEMA’s terms, river and rain flooding is FEMA’s “Inland Flooding” (rivers and streams overflowing their banks, or rain overwhelming drainage). FEMA defines coastal flooding as high or rising tides and storm surge, so surge damage is counted there. Drought isn’t listed: FEMA counts its losses in crops only.
What’s behind Gilroy’s grade
Earthquakes are 51% of the building damage FEMA expects in Gilroy, and Gilroy’s rate of earthquakes damage is in the top 2% of U.S. census tracts. River and rain flooding adds 47%, at a rate in the top 8% of U.S. census tracts.
D− #676 of 847 in California; higher expected damage per building than 97% of U.S. towns (21,298).
Gilroy’s residents live in 14 census tracts; FEMA’s figures are combined by where they live.
The typical California town has higher expected damage than 92% of U.S. towns; within the state, Gilroy has more expected damage per building than 80% of California towns.
In dollars, FEMA expects about $62.6M a year in losses across Gilroy: $49.2M to buildings, the rest to people and crops.
Does Gilroy flood? Sometimes: 21 flood claims since 1982
Every paid claim on a federal flood insurance policy in Gilroy, from FEMA’s records: 1.2 per 1,000 homes, fewer than 75% of the 13,809 U.S. towns with a flood insurance record.
Gilroy is in FEMA’s Community Rating System (class 7) for its flood-proofing work.
Insurance rates: Santa Clara County.2 federal disasters brought FEMA money to Gilroy
Disasters that paid out in Gilroy itself (aid to households or repair grants to the City of Gilroy), newest first, with that year’s flood claims.
- 2023Severe Winter Storms, Straight-line Winds, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides1 households applied for aid$3K aid approved
- 2022Severe Winter Storms, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides31 households applied for aid$23K aid approved
Santa Clara County has had 19 natural disasters declared by the President since 1953, most often severe storms, then floods. Not counted: the 2005 Hurricane Katrina evacuee emergency, which covered counties that took in evacuees.
Also 3 FEMA wildfire suppression grants (Fire Management Assistance, not a disaster declaration) for fires in Santa Clara County, 2002–2020.
Old photos of Gilroy after a storm or flood belong in the town’s history. Add one, or share what you remember below.
Add to the Gilroy archive →Get ready for what Gilroy faces
A short kit for the hazards that drive the building damage here, what to check before you buy, and where neighbors get alerts.
- Drop, cover and hold on.
- Strap tall furniture and the water heater to the wall.
- Know how to shut off the gas.
- Turn around at flooded roads: a foot of moving water can carry off a car.
- Flood insurance usually takes 30 days to start, so buy it before the forecast.
- Keep papers and medicines up high, in a grab-and-go bag.
- Look up the address on FEMA’s flood map.
- Ask the seller or landlord whether it has ever flooded, and what flood insurance costs there.
- Get a flood insurance quote early: policies usually start 30 days after you buy.
- Gilroy residents get 15% off flood insurance.
Know where neighbors sign up for alerts? Add it to the Handbook so everyone has it.
Questions about natural hazards in Gilroy
Is Gilroy at risk for natural disasters?
On FEMA’s National Risk Index, Gilroy has higher expected damage per building than 97% of U.S. towns: D− for hazard risk, #676 of 847 in California. Most of the expected damage is earthquakes (51%) and river and rain flooding (47%). This is FEMA’s model of an average year for today’s buildings, not a forecast.
Does Gilroy flood?
Flood insurance has paid 21 claims in Gilroy since 1982, $287K in all, or 1.2 per 1,000 homes, fewer than 75% of U.S. towns with a flood insurance record.
Is Gilroy in a flood zone?
Flood zones are drawn street by street, so the answer depends on the address: look it up on FEMA’s flood map. In Santa Clara County, 22% of homes in mapped flood zones carry federal flood insurance, and 1.7% of all homes do.
How much is flood insurance in Gilroy?
Gilroy is in FEMA’s Community Rating System (class 7), which takes 15% off federal flood insurance policies for its flood-proofing work. Premiums depend on the building; policies usually start 30 days after you buy, so get a quote early.
What was the biggest storm in Gilroy?
By FEMA money that reached Gilroy, Severe Winter Storms, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides (2022): 31 households applied for aid, $23K approved.
Is Gilroy at risk from earthquakes?
It is the largest share of the building damage FEMA expects here (51%), and Gilroy’s rate for it is in the top 2% of U.S. census tracts.
Storm stories
Memories, warnings and help from neighbors in Gilroy.
Sources: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 (December 2025), census-tract table, combined by where Gilroy’s residents lived in the 2020 census; OpenFEMA: NFIP redacted claims, multiple-loss properties, community status book and residential penetration rates, housing assistance (owners and renters), public assistance funded projects, hazard mitigation properties and disaster declarations. Homes: Census ACS 2020–24. Preparedness tips: Ready.gov. FEMA’s model is an average of expected damage, not a forecast. How hazard risk is graded.