Photo: ERobson at English Wikipedia · CC BY 3.0FEMA expects more hazard damage per building in Fairfax than in 97% of U.S. towns, mostly from river and rain flooding
On FEMA’s National Risk Index, Fairfax gets a D− for hazard risk: higher expected damage per building than 97% of U.S. towns, #680 of 847 in California. Most of that expected damage is river and rain flooding (74%), then earthquakes (24%). Flood insurance has paid 90 claims here since 1978.
Graded on FEMA’s expected yearly building damage per dollar of building value (NRI v1.20, December 2025), weighted by where residents live; flood claims are shown, not graded. How hazard risk is graded
What stands out about Fairfax’s natural hazards
From FEMA’s model and FEMA’s records, below.
What Fairfax faces
Each hazard’s share of the building damage FEMA expects here, and how its rate compares with the rest of the country.
River and rain flooding
Earthquakes
Shares are of FEMA’s expected building damage, the measure the grade uses; ranks compare each hazard’s building-damage rate with all 85,154 U.S. census tracts. In FEMA’s terms, river and rain flooding is FEMA’s “Inland Flooding” (rivers and streams overflowing their banks, or rain overwhelming drainage). FEMA defines coastal flooding as high or rising tides and storm surge, so surge damage is counted there. Drought isn’t listed: FEMA counts its losses in crops only.
What’s behind Fairfax’s grade
River and rain flooding is 74% of the building damage FEMA expects in Fairfax, and Fairfax’s rate of river and rain flooding damage is in the top 2% of U.S. census tracts. Earthquakes add 24%, at a rate in the top 9% of U.S. census tracts.
D− #680 of 847 in California; higher expected damage per building than 97% of U.S. towns (21,298).
Fairfax’s residents live in 2 census tracts; FEMA’s figures are combined by where they live.
The typical California town has higher expected damage than 92% of U.S. towns; within the state, Fairfax has more expected damage per building than 80% of California towns.
In dollars, FEMA expects about $7.2M a year in losses across Fairfax: $6.6M to buildings, the rest to people and crops.
Does Fairfax flood? Sometimes: 90 flood claims since 1978
Every paid claim on a federal flood insurance policy in Fairfax, from FEMA’s records: 26.3 per 1,000 homes, more than 87% of the 13,809 U.S. towns with a flood insurance record.
- The California Atmospheric River1 claim · $5K
- The Pineapple Express - Southern1 claim · $456
Fairfax is in FEMA’s Community Rating System (class 9) for its flood-proofing work.
Insurance rates: Marin County.8 federal disasters brought FEMA money to Fairfax
Disasters that paid out in Fairfax itself (aid to households or repair grants to the Town of Fairfax), newest first, with that year’s flood claims.
- 2023Severe Winter Storms, Straight-line Winds, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides$59K to the Town of Fairfax for repairs1 flood claim paid that year
- 2022Severe Winter Storms, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides$38K to the Town of Fairfax for repairs
- 2019Severe Winter Storms, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides$25K to the Town of Fairfax for repairs
- 2019Severe Winter Storms, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides$43K to the Town of Fairfax for repairs
- 2017Severe Winter Storms, Flooding, and Mudslides$186K to the Town of Fairfax for repairs
- 2017Severe Winter Storms, Flooding, and Mudslides$347K to the Town of Fairfax for repairs
Show all 8
- 2006Severe Storms, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides$32K to the Town of Fairfax for repairs4 flood claims paid that year
- 2005Severe Storms, Flooding, Mudslides, and Landslides108 households applied for aid$172K aid approved$1.1M to the Town of Fairfax for repairs51 flood claims paid that year
Marin County has had 22 natural disasters declared by the President since 1953, most often severe storms, then floods. Not counted: the 2005 Hurricane Katrina evacuee emergency, which covered counties that took in evacuees.
Old photos of Fairfax after a storm or flood belong in the town’s history. Add one, or share what you remember below.
Add to the Fairfax archive →Fairfax and its neighbors
Fairfax is 2nd of the 3 graded towns here, from least expected damage per building to most. Tap a town to see its hazards.
| Town | Hazard risk | Mostly (buildings) | Flood claims |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sleepy Hollow | Dmore damage than 92% | river and rain flooding | 64 |
| Fairfax | D−more damage than 97% | river and rain flooding | 90 |
| San Anselmo | D−more damage than 98% | river and rain flooding | 230 |
Hazard risk = FEMA’s expected yearly building damage per dollar of building value, vs. the 21,298 U.S. towns we grade; the map is shaded by fifths of the same scale. Flood claims = paid federal flood insurance claims on record.
Get ready for what Fairfax faces
A short kit for the hazards that drive the building damage here, what to check before you buy, and where neighbors get alerts.
- Turn around at flooded roads: a foot of moving water can carry off a car.
- Flood insurance usually takes 30 days to start, so buy it before the forecast.
- Keep papers and medicines up high, in a grab-and-go bag.
- Drop, cover and hold on.
- Strap tall furniture and the water heater to the wall.
- Know how to shut off the gas.
- Look up the address on FEMA’s flood map.
- Ask the seller or landlord whether it has ever flooded, and what flood insurance costs there.
- Get a flood insurance quote early: policies usually start 30 days after you buy.
- Fairfax residents get 05% off flood insurance.
Know where neighbors sign up for alerts? Add it to the Handbook so everyone has it.
Questions about natural hazards in Fairfax
Is Fairfax at risk for natural disasters?
On FEMA’s National Risk Index, Fairfax has higher expected damage per building than 97% of U.S. towns: D− for hazard risk, #680 of 847 in California. Most of the expected damage is river and rain flooding (74%) and earthquakes (24%). This is FEMA’s model of an average year for today’s buildings, not a forecast.
Does Fairfax flood?
Flood insurance has paid 90 claims in Fairfax since 1978, $2.0M in all, or 26.3 per 1,000 homes, more than 87% of U.S. towns with a flood insurance record. 6 properties have flooded more than once. The most claims came from California Atmospheric River (1).
Is Fairfax in a flood zone?
Flood zones are drawn street by street, so the answer depends on the address: look it up on FEMA’s flood map. In Marin County, 38% of homes in mapped flood zones carry federal flood insurance, and 5.4% of all homes do.
How much is flood insurance in Fairfax?
Fairfax is in FEMA’s Community Rating System (class 9), which takes 05% off federal flood insurance policies for its flood-proofing work. Premiums depend on the building; policies usually start 30 days after you buy, so get a quote early.
What was the biggest storm in Fairfax?
By FEMA money that reached Fairfax, Severe Storms, Flooding, Mudslides, and Landslides (2005): 108 households applied for aid, $172K approved, and $1.1M to the Town of Fairfax for repairs. By flood claims, California Atmospheric River: 1 paid, $5K.
Is Fairfax at risk from river and rain flooding?
It is the largest share of the building damage FEMA expects here (74%), and Fairfax’s rate for it is in the top 2% of U.S. census tracts.
Storm stories
Memories, warnings and help from neighbors in Fairfax.
Sources: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 (December 2025), census-tract table, combined by where Fairfax’s residents lived in the 2020 census; OpenFEMA: NFIP redacted claims, multiple-loss properties, community status book and residential penetration rates, housing assistance (owners and renters), public assistance funded projects, hazard mitigation properties and disaster declarations. Homes: Census ACS 2020–24. Preparedness tips: Ready.gov. FEMA’s model is an average of expected damage, not a forecast. How hazard risk is graded.