Salt River Canyon Bridge · Photo: Nicholas Hartmann · CC BY-SA 4.0FEMA expects more hazard damage per building in Cibecue than in 98% of U.S. towns, mostly from wildfire
On FEMA’s National Risk Index, Cibecue gets a D− for hazard risk: higher expected damage per building than 98% of U.S. towns. Most of that expected damage is wildfire (60%), then river and rain flooding (39%). FEMA’s files show no paid flood insurance claims here.
Graded on FEMA’s expected yearly building damage per dollar of building value (NRI v1.20, December 2025), weighted by where residents live; flood claims are shown, not graded. How hazard risk is graded
What Cibecue faces
Each hazard’s share of the building damage FEMA expects here, and how its rate compares with the rest of the country.
Wildfire
River and rain flooding
Shares are of FEMA’s expected building damage, the measure the grade uses; ranks compare each hazard’s building-damage rate with all 85,154 U.S. census tracts. In FEMA’s terms, river and rain flooding is FEMA’s “Inland Flooding” (rivers and streams overflowing their banks, or rain overwhelming drainage). FEMA defines coastal flooding as high or rising tides and storm surge, so surge damage is counted there. Drought isn’t listed: FEMA counts its losses in crops only.
What’s behind Cibecue’s grade
Wildfire is 60% of the building damage FEMA expects in Cibecue, and Cibecue’s rate of wildfire damage is in the top 1% of U.S. census tracts. Next is river and rain flooding at 39% (higher than 90% of U.S. census tracts).
D− higher expected damage per building than 98% of U.S. towns (21,298).
All of Cibecue’s residents live in one census tract; the figures are that tract’s.
In dollars, FEMA expects about $1.0M a year in losses across Cibecue: $825K to buildings, the rest to people and crops.
Does Cibecue flood? No paid flood claims on record
FEMA’s records show no paid flood insurance claims in Cibecue. That’s not a promise: most homes don’t carry flood insurance, so small floods go unrecorded.
Cibecue isn’t in FEMA’s Community Rating System, which cuts flood insurance up to 45% in towns that do extra flood-proofing.
Insurance rates: Navajo County.The storms Cibecue remembers
None of the 12 disasters declared for Navajo County shows FEMA aid or repair money reaching Cibecue itself in FEMA’s records, so these are its biggest flood-claim years.
Navajo County has had 12 natural disasters declared by the President since 1953, most often floods, then severe storms. Not counted: the 2005 Hurricane Katrina evacuee emergency, which covered counties that took in evacuees.
Also 5 FEMA wildfire suppression grants (Fire Management Assistance, not a disaster declaration) for fires in Navajo County, 1999–2006.
Get ready for what Cibecue faces
A short kit for the hazards that drive the building damage here, what to check before you buy, and where neighbors get alerts.
- Clear dead leaves and brush within 5 feet of the house.
- Sign up for local alerts and know two ways out.
- Keep N95 masks for smoky days.
- Turn around at flooded roads: a foot of moving water can carry off a car.
- Flood insurance usually takes 30 days to start, so buy it before the forecast.
- Keep papers and medicines up high, in a grab-and-go bag.
- Look up the address on FEMA’s flood map.
- Ask the seller or landlord whether it has ever flooded, and what flood insurance costs there.
- Get a flood insurance quote early: policies usually start 30 days after you buy.
Know where neighbors sign up for alerts? Add it to the Handbook so everyone has it.
Questions about natural hazards in Cibecue
Is Cibecue at risk for natural disasters?
On FEMA’s National Risk Index, Cibecue has higher expected damage per building than 98% of U.S. towns: D− for hazard risk. Most of the expected damage is wildfire (60%) and river and rain flooding (39%). The figures are for the one census tract the town shares with its neighbors. This is FEMA’s model of an average year for today’s buildings, not a forecast.
Is Cibecue in a flood zone?
Flood zones are drawn street by street, so the answer depends on the address: look it up on FEMA’s flood map. In Navajo County, 14% of homes in mapped flood zones carry federal flood insurance, and 0.6% of all homes do.
How much is flood insurance in Cibecue?
FEMA’s Community Rating System list shows no discount for Cibecue’s flood program. Premiums depend on the building; policies usually start 30 days after you buy, so get a quote early.
Is Cibecue at risk from wildfire?
It is the largest share of the building damage FEMA expects here (60%), and Cibecue’s rate for it is in the top 1% of U.S. census tracts.
Storm stories
Memories, warnings and help from neighbors in Cibecue.
Sources: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 (December 2025), census-tract table, combined by where Cibecue’s residents lived in the 2020 census; OpenFEMA: NFIP redacted claims, multiple-loss properties, community status book and residential penetration rates, housing assistance (owners and renters), public assistance funded projects, hazard mitigation properties and disaster declarations. Homes: Census ACS 2020–24. Preparedness tips: Ready.gov. FEMA’s model is an average of expected damage, not a forecast. How hazard risk is graded.